Theory use in social predictions

In a commentary to our article on the role of theory and simulation in social predictions, Krueger (2012) argues that the role of theory is neglected in social psychology for a good reason. He considers evidence indicating that people readily generalize from themselves to others. In response, we stress the role of theoretical knowledge in predicting other people’s behavior. Importantly, prediction by simulation and prediction by theory can lead to high as well as to low correlations between own and predicted behavior. This renders correlations largely useless for identifying the prediction strategy. We argue that prediction by theory is a serious alternative to prediction by simulation, and that reliance on correlation has led to a bias toward simulation.     

高中生的自我概念与其学校适应

本研究对258名高一、高二年级的学生进行了问卷调查．对其自我概念和学校中的社会行为、同伴关系、学业成绩进行了研究,结果发现：高中生的自我概念不存在显著的年级和性别差异,其年级和性别的交互作用也没达到显著水平;自我概念与敏感退缩行为没有密切关系;身体自我概念与社会喜好、学业成绩有显著负相关,并且对两者有显著预测效果;自我概念部分因子与社会影响、亲社会行为、攻击行为有显著正相关,且也对它们具有显著预测力。     

Using implementation intentions to increase attendance for cervical cancer screening.

This article evaluates an intervention based on P. M. Gollwitzer's (1993) concept of implementation intentions. Women registered at a medical practice in rural England (N = 114) completed measures of the theory of planned behavior variables before a manipulation that induced one half of the sample to form implementation intentions specifying when, where, and how they would make the appointment. Subsequent attendance was determined from medical records. Findings show that the theory of planned behavior variables and previous delay behavior provided good prediction of attendance. However, despite equivalent motivation to attend, participants who formed implementation intentions were much more likely to attend for screening compared with controls (92% vs. 69%). Evidence also suggests that implementation intentions attenuated the relationship between previous delay behavior and subsequent attendance.     

风险寻求中的图形表征效应

在负性风险信息沟通中,采用文本表征与图形表征,结果发现图形表征方式更能引起风险回避行为。基于此,本研究以获益方案作为风险沟通信息,分别采用文本表征与图形表征来探索信息表征方式对风险寻求的影响。结果显示:在文本表征方式中,个体决策主要受备择方案之间风险大小的影响;而图形表征方式中,个体不仅受备择方案之间风险大小的影响,而且更受备择方案之间获益大小的影响。结果说明:相对文本表征,图形表征方式更能引起决策者为了获益而冒更大的风险,从而表现出风险寻求偏好,从而证实"图形效应"在风险决策中存在普遍性,为我们风险决策信息提供依据。     

2～11岁儿童问题行为的稳定性与变化

本研究采用追踪研究方法,考察了儿童2岁、4岁、7岁、11岁时内隐问题行为和外显问题行为的稳定性和变化。结果发现,各个年龄阶段,父母报告的问题行为都具有中等程度的相关。儿童的问题行为2岁时最多,此后开始下降,11岁时问题行为最少。儿童的问题行为具有中等程度的连续性,2岁、4岁、7岁、11岁的问题行为之间的相关均非常显著。     

Accounting for Graded Performance within a Discrete Search Framework

This article presents a process account of some typicality effects and related similarity-dependent accuracy and response time phenomena that arise in the context of supervised concept acquisition. We describe Symbolic Concept Acquisition (SCA), a computational system that acquires and activates category prediction rules. In contrast to gradient representations, SCA performs by probing for prediction rules in a series of discrete steps. For learning new rules, it acquires general rules but then incrementally learns more specific ones. In describing SCA, we emphasize its functionality in terms of accuracy and efficiency and motivate its design within the set of symbolic mechanisms and memory structures defined by the Soar architecture (Laird, Newell & Rosenbloom, 1987). For replicating human behavior, we first show how SCA exhibits some typicality effects in the course of learning responding faster and more accurately to more typical test examples. Then, using data from human experiments, we evaluate SCA's qualitative predictions on accuracy and response time on individual dataset instances. We show how SCA's predictions correlate with human data across three experimental conditions concerning the effect of instruction on learning strategy.     

Measuring implementation intentions in the context of the theory of planned behavior

The usefulness of measuring implementation intentions in the context of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) was explored among 112 Norwegian college students. They responded to a questionnaire measuring past behavior, perceived behavioral control, behavioral intentions, implementation intentions, and actual performance of regular exercising and recycling of drinking cartons. Implementation intentions were measured using five items relating to recycling and four items relating to exercise, which showed satisfactory internal consistencies. Consistent with the main prediction, the presence of implementation intentions was related to performing the two behaviors, although behavioral intentions were the strongest determinant for both behaviors. The results suggest that the TPB may benefit from inclusion of the concept of implementation intentions to provide a more complete understanding of the psychological process in which motivation is translated into action.     

Parental involvement: Definition and outcomes

The purpose of this study was to seek a definition of the concept of parental involvement and to examine the relationship that may exist between school achievement and specific parental involvement activities. Data were collected from 852 parents of sixth-grade students of both genders. It was found that the involvement of parents in their children's educational process is a complex behavior that may take different forms, not all of which are related to the child's school achievement. The following six types of parental involvement were identified through factor analysis: learning at home, volunteering and decision making at school, and four different parenting tendencies (emphasizing achievement, pressure, control, and personality development). Parenting through emphasis on achievement and through personality development had a positive, statistically significant correlation with actual school achievement, while parenting through pressure had a negative such correlation. A positive correlation was also found between parental volunteering at school and the child's actual school achievement. Learning at home and parenting through control had no significant correlation with achievement. The findings of this study suggest that the six distinct types of behavior that make up parental involvement have differential effects in relation to school achievement.     

Applicability of two violence risk assessment tools in a psychiatric prison hospital population

The risk of violent behavior is known to be higher for patients who suffer from a severe mental disorder. However, specific prediction tools for clinical work in prison psychiatry are lacking. In this single-center study, two violence risk assessment tools (Forensic Psychiatry and Violence Tool, “FoVOx,” and Mental Illness and Violence Tool, “OxMIV”) were applied to a prison hospital population with a primary psychotic or bipolar disorder and subsequently compared. The required information on all items of both tools was obtained retrospectively for a total of 339 patients by evaluation of available patient files. We obtained the median and inter-quartile range for both FoVOx and OxMIV, and their rank correlation coefficient along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs)—for the full cohort, as well as for cohort subgroups. The two risk assessment tools were strongly positively correlated (Spearman correlation = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.80–0.86). Such a high correlation was independent of nationality, country of origin, type of detention, schizophrenia-spectrum disorder, previous violent crime and alcohol use disorder, where correlations were above 0.8. A lower correlation was seen with patients who were 30 years old or more, married, with affective disorder and with self-harm behavior, and also in patients without aggressive behavior and without drug use disorder. Both risk assessment tools are applicable as an adjunct to clinical decision making in prison psychiatry.     

Organizational citizenship behavior and workplace deviance: the role of affect and cognitions

To investigate the role of affect and cognitions in predicting organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) and workplace deviance behavior (WDB), data were collected from 149 registered nurses and their coworkers. Job affect was associated more strongly than were job cognitions with OCB directed at individuals, whereas job cognitions correlated more strongly than did job affect with OCB directed at the organization. With respect to WDB, job cognitions played a more important role in prediction when job affect was represented by 2 general mood variables (positive and negative affect). When discrete emotions were used to represent job affect, however, job affect played as important a role as job cognition variables, strongly suggesting the importance of considering discrete emotions in job affect research.     

A cautionary tale of two statistics: partial correlation and standardized partial regression

Partial correlation and standardized partial regression are widely used to control for other variables in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. Two aspects of these statistics can radically alter the interpretation of data and so deserve attention. First, their sign will be opposite to that of the original zero-order correlation when this correlation is of the same sign as and smaller than the product of the other 2 correlations. Second, their size will be considerably larger than a weak zero-order correlation when either that correlation is positive and the product of the other 2 correlations is negative or that correlation is negative and the product of the other 2 correlations is positive. The first aspect is illustrated with data from J. M. Gottman and L. J. Krokoff (1989) on initial conflict behavior and initial and later marital satisfaction, and the 2nd aspect is illustrated with data from C. L. Heavey, C. Layne, and A. Christensen (1993) on the same issue. Their interpretation of their findings is questioned.     

The Theory of Planned Behavior and Ecstasy Use: Roles for Habit and Perceived Control Over Taking Versus Obtaining Substances

Despite increasing use of the illicit substance known as ecstasy , there is a paucity of research concerning psychosocial correlates of its use. A prospective study examined the ability of variables specified by the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to predict ecstasyuse intentions and behavior. Regression analyses showed that theory of reasoned action and TPB variables provided good prediction of intentions to use the substance. Moreover, support was obtained for a distinction between perceptions of behavioral control over taking ecstasy vs. control over obtaining the substance in the prediction of intentions. Habit contributed additional variance to the prediction of intentions, and reduced the effects of perceived behavioral control over taking ecstasy to nonsignificance. Ecstasy use over 2 months was directly predicted from intentions to use the substance.     

初级军官心理选拔的预测性

目的：通过建立院校学员胜任特征及初级军官评价模型,探讨初级军官心理选拔检测系统的预测性。方法：某军校340名男性本科学员入校时完成初级军官心理选拔检测,毕业前进行院校胜任特征评价,对162名学员毕业后1~5年进行部队工作表现追踪评价。结果：中国MBTI-G人格类型测验对院校学员管理能力、影响力、约束力、口头表达、军人气质、人际关系等有较好的预测性,预测符合率72.13%;中国军人明尼苏达个性调查表6项精神障碍维度对情绪稳定性有较好的预测,预测符合率71.90%;院校学员一般能力倾向测验对学业成绩、文字表达、口头表达、人际关系和决策能力等胜任特征也有一定的预测性,预测符合率66.70%;三项测验院校胜任特征总预测符合率达81.70%,部队胜任特征总预测符合率76~87%。结论：为我军初级军官心理选拔提供了实用工具,为提高心理选拔预测准确性提供了科学依据     

The mixed blessings of self-knowledge in behavioral prediction: enhanced discrimination but exacerbated bias

Four experiments demonstrate that self-knowledge provides a mixed blessing in behavioral prediction, depending on how accuracy is measured. Compared with predictions of others, self-knowledge tends to decrease overall accuracy by increasing bias (the mean difference between predicted behavior and reality) but tends to increase overall accuracy by also enhancing discrimination (the correlation between predicted behavior and reality). Overall, participants' self-predictions overestimated the likelihood that they would engage in desirable behaviors (bias), whereas peer predictions were relatively unbiased. However, self-predictions also were more strongly correlated with individual differences in actual behavior (discrimination) than were peer predictions. Discussion addresses the costs and benefits of self-knowledge in behavioral prediction and the broader implications of measuring judgmental accuracy of judgment in terms of bias versus discrimination.     

Theoretical and methodological considerations in the prediction of family planning intentions and behavior

This article applies a general model of intentions to the study of family planning behavior. The model provides a basis for understanding fertility intentions and for explaining psychological and sociological variables affecting these intentions. The prediction of family planning behavior intentions is important but the degree to which intentions predict behavior is equally relevent. Past research seems to show a low correlation between fertility desires and actual fertility which can most likely be explained through either factors that confound the relation between intentions and behavior and factors that produce changes in intentions over time.     

“Of course I will ...”: The combined effect of certainty and level of expectancies on persistence and performance

The importance of performance expectancies for the prediction of regulation of behavior and actual performance has long been established. Building on theories from the field of social cognition, we suggest that the level of performance expectancies, as well as the certainty of the expectancy, have a joint influence on an individual’s beliefs and behavior. In two studies (one cross sectional using a sample of secondary school students and one longitudinal using a sample of university students) we found that expectancies more strongly predicted persistence, and subsequent performance, the more certain the expectancy was. This pattern was found even if prior performance was controlled, as in Study 2. The data give an indication that it may be useful to include certainty as an additional variable in expectancy models.     

Harm-doing and victim's racial or orthopedic stigma as determinants of helping behavior.

Three experiments tested a prediction derived from an ambivalence theory of behavior toward the stigmatized. The prediction was that unintentional harm-doers would be more likely to make restitution by doing a favor for a stigmatized victim than for a nonstigmatized one. In Experiment 1 it was upheld for black versus white victims. In Experiment 2, where the victim of harm-doing was either physically handicapped or normal, the prediction was upheld only among older subjects, following the post hoc introduction of an age variable. Experiment 3 also used a physical disability variable. The data were consistent with the prediction, although the adequacy of the harm-doing manipulation was not checked empirically. On the whole, these results are seen as complementing previous findings of amplified post-harm-doing denigration of black and disabled victims. An assumption that the relationship between harm-doing and altruism was mediated by guilt arousal received only fragmentary support. That is, self-reports of guilt were highest in the harm-doing black confederate condition in Experiment 1, and self-reports of negative affect were highest in the harm-doing/wheelchair confederate condition in Experiment 3, but there were no significant relationships between individual differences in guilt or negative affect on the one hand, and amount of helping, on the other.     

Reichenbach's concept of prediction

Reichenbach emphasizes the central importance of prediction, which is—for him—the principal aim of science. This paper offers a critical reconstruction of his concept of prediction, taking into account the different periods of his thought. First, prediction is studied as a key factor in rejecting the positivism of the Vienna Circle. This part of the discussion concentres on the general features of prediction before Experience and Prediction (EP) (section 1). Second, prediction is considered in the context of Reichenbach's disagreements with his contemporaries—Carnap and Popper—(section 2). Pointing out these differences gives an additional basis for understanding how Reichenbach saw “prediction” in the period when EP was written. Third, Reichenbach's theoretical framework of prediction is analysed following EP. This analysis studies the semantical, logical, epistemological and methodological bases of his concept of prediction (section 3). Fourth, Reichenbach's conception of prediction, based on an objectivist interpretation of probabilities, is compared with the perspective on prediction of subjective Bayesians (the present personalists). This comparison (section 4) illustrates Reichenbach's views regarding the links of prediction with probability. Fifth, innovations and elements of continuity after EP are noted which give a more complete picture of Reichenbach's thought on prediction (section 5). This contributes to a comprehensive characterization of his concept of prediction. Finally, there is an assessment of his whole view of the matter and a presentation of the ingredients for a satisfactory alternative (section 6).