The fallacy of the null hypothesis in soft psychology

In his classic article on the fallacy of the null hypothesis in soft psychology [J. Consult. Clin. Psychol. 46 (1978)], Paul Meehl claimed that, in nonexperimental settings, the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis of nil group differences in favor of a directional alternative was 0.50—a value that is an order of magnitude higher than the customary Type I error rate. In a series of real data simulations, using Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-Revised (MMPI-2) data collected from more than 80,000 individuals, I found strong support for Meehl’s claim.     

Bayesian t tests for accepting and rejecting the null hypothesis

Progress in science often comes from discovering invariances in relationships among variables; these invariances often correspond to null hypotheses. As is commonly known, it is not possible to state evidence for the null hypothesis in conventional significance testing. Here we highlight a Bayes factor alternative to the conventional t test that will allow researchers to express preference for either the null hypothesis or the alternative. The Bayes factor has a natural and straightforward interpretation, is based on reasonable assumptions, and has better properties than other methods of inference that have been advocated in the psychological literature. To facilitate use of the Bayes factor, we provide an easy-to-use, Web-based program that performs the necessary calculations.     

The rise and fall of moral algebra: Francis Hutcheson and the mathematization of psychology

Until recently historians of psychology have typically argued that mathematical analysis in psychology originated with Herbart in nineteenth-century Germany. Among those who are now recognized to have pedated Herbart is Francis Hutcheson. In 1725, Hutcheson published a mathematical statement of his theory of the psychological basis of moral behavior and judgment. Hutcheson's attempt to present a theory of social behavior in mathematical terms is described and an analysis is presented of the background which led Hutcheson to adopt such a mathematical format. The work of several imitators of this aspect of Hutcheson's opus is considered and the role of his critic, Thomas Reid, in halting such mathematizing efforts for several decades in Britain is noted.     

The rise and fall of deception in social psychology and personality research, 1921 to 1994

The frequency of the use of deception in American psychological research was studied by reviewing articles from journals in personality and social psychology from 1921 to 1994. Deception was used rarely during the developmental years of social psychology into the 1930s, then grew gradually and irregularly until the 1950s. Between the 1950s and 1970s the use of deception increased significantly. This increase is attributed to changes in experimental methods, the popularity of realistic impact experiments, and the influence of cognitive dissonance theory. Since 1980 there appears to have been a decrease in the use of deception as compared to previous decades which is related to changes in theory, methods, ethical standards, and federal regulation of research.     

The rise and rise of social psychology in Asia: A bibliometric analysis

The growth of social psychology in Asia from 1970 to 2008 was examined through a bibliometric analysis of articles in the ISI Web of Science database that listed Asian‐based authors. The 1866 articles have appeared at an accelerating rate, and represent a rapidly‐growing share of global publications in the field. Publication trajectories of different Asian nations show the Indian first wave, Hong Kong and Japan's second wave, and China and Taiwan's third wave of growth. Trends in the rates of Asian first authorship, single‐nation authorship, and cross‐cultural research suggest that Asian social psychology is increasingly more autonomous and distinctive.     

A note on accepting the null hypothesis: problems with respect to the mass-spring and pulse-step models of movement control

Models are sometimes developed on the premise that there are no differences between two or more conditions regardless of experimental manipulation. This article argues that unless a very sensitive experiment (or series of experiments) was conducted, such conclusions are often premature. Design and statistical factors such as alpha level, variability, sample size, and treatment effect are all determinants of the sensitivity of the experiment. It is sometimes the case that an experiment produces differences between means and yet the null hypothesis is not rejected because of high variability within experimental conditions or because too few subjects were used. Unless the probability of detecting a difference between groups is known, it would seem unwise to conclude that no difference exists. Judgment on the model should be suspended. Examples are taken from the mass-spring and pulse-step models fro voluntary movement control to illustrate the problem.     

The rise and fall of Christian science

This paper applies a general theory of why religious movements succeed or fail to explain the meteoric rise of Christian Science, and to explain why the movement began an equally precipitous decline and may soon simply disappear. The analysis is based on quantitative data, on field work and on a variety of historical documents. The fall of Christian Science has many aspects, but particular emphasis is given to inadequate fertility, ineffective socialization, compromises in distinctiveness, a decline in the relative effectiveness of its placebo effects and to the greatly increased occupational opportunities for women.     

The rise and fall of Hugo Münsterberg

This article addresses the turbulent life of the German-American philosopher and psychologist Hugo Miinsterberg in Germany and his role in founding the psychological laboratories at Freiburg and Harvard. He is best known for his contributions to forensic, industrial, and the “new” experimental psychology. Over a span of twenty years (1897–1916), Miinsterberg rose to become the leading psychologist in the US. When he turned his attention to cultural and political issues, particulary his efforts on behalf of a mutual understanding between Germany and America, he had a serious break with the Harvard administration and later, his colleagues. An advocate for world peace, his final years were marred by World War I which left him embittered and socially isolated. Judged harshly at the time, he is now receiving the recognition that posterity did not tender him.     

Aging and negative affect: the rise and fall and rise of anxiety and depression symptoms

The relationship between aging and negative affect is dynamic and complex. Although prior studies have often cited lower prevalence rates of anxiety and mood disorders among older individuals, these studies may miss the dynamic relationship between symptoms and aging. To evaluate a nonlinear model of the relationship between aging and negative affect, the author examined measures of neuroticism, anxiety, and depression symptoms in a cross-sectional, community sample (N = 335), ages 18 to 93. Results indicated a curvilinear relationship, with mean symptom levels increasing during early adulthood (until the mid-30s) and then showing a small decline until older adulthood (the mid-70s), when symptoms again increase with age.     

Political emancipation and the domination of nature: The rise and fall of Soviet Prometheanism

Frolov, I. T. (1990) Man, Science, Humanism: A New Synthesis (Buffalo, NY, Prometheus Books), 342 pp.

Graham, L. R. (Ed.) (1990) Science and the Soviet Social Order (Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press), ix + 443 pp.

Understanding the place of science in Soviet culture is essential if we are to understand the distinctive character of the Soviet Union, its failings and contradictions, and its prospects for the future. This paper examines Soviet conceptions of the role of science in the socialist project. Focusing on Loren Graham's collection Science and the Soviet Social Order, the article critically assesses the claim that science and technology have been liberalizing influences on Soviet political culture. The paper concludes by considering Ivan Frolov's, Man, Science, Humanism, which attempts to reform Soviet conceptions of science by establishing a Marxist ‘scientific humanism’. Although Frolov challenges the idea of science as a means to subordinate nature, his approach is belied by his uncritical acceptance of a classic Soviet attitude to science; namely, the necessity of a total, systematic theory of humanity, nature and society. It is argued that the later stages of perestroika saw a marked loss of confidence in the power of science as a source of such ‘total theory’, and with this the history of Soviet Prometheanism appears to have come to a close.     

The rise and (surprisingly rapid) fall of psycholinguistics

Psycholinguistics re-emerged in an almost explosive fashion during the 1950s and 1960s. It then underwent an equally abrupt decline as an independent sub-discipline. This paper charts this fall and identifies five general factors which, it is argued, were responsible for its demise. These are: (a) an uncompromisingly strong version of nativism; (b) a growing isolation of psycholinguistics from the body psychology; (c) a preference for formal theory over empirical data; (d) several abrupt modifications in the Standard Theory in linguistics; and (e) a failure to appreciate the strong commitment to functionalism that characterizes experimental psychology. In short, what looked like a revolution two decades ago turned out to be merely a local reformation that occurred along side of and largely independent from the real revolution in the cognitive sciences.     

The rise and fall of IQ in special ed: Historical trends and their implications

Using IQ records from 10 sites around the country, we examined longitudinal trends in IQ among mental retardation (MR) students during the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC) to WISC-Revised (R) transition in the 1970s and learning disability (LD) students during the WISC-R to WISC-3rd Revision (III) transition in the 1990s. Based on the work by Flynn [American Journal of Mental Deficiency 90 (1985) 236; Psychology, Public Policy, and Law 6 (2000) 191], we predicted a rise in IQ followed by a fall each time a newly normed IQ test is introduced into the schools and used to diagnose children as MR or LD. As expected, we found that mean IQs of MR and LD students followed a nearly identical parabolic trajectory, and differed depending on what year they were tested. IQs from the older norms were higher than IQs from the newly introduced norms. This systematic shift had a significant impact on the likelihood of a MR diagnosis. The broader implications of this pattern are discussed.     

The proof of the pudding: an illustration of the relative strengths of null hypothesis, meta-analysis, and Bayesian analysis

Some methodologists have recently suggested that scientific psychology's over-reliance on null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) impedes the progress of the discipline. In response, a number of defenders have maintained that NHST continues to play a vital role in psychological research. Both sides of the argument to date have been presented abstractly. The authors take a different approach to this issue by illustrating the use of NHST along with 2 possible alternatives (meta-analysis as a primary data analysis strategy and Bayesian approaches) in a series of 3 studies. Comparing and contrasting the approaches on actual data brings out the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. The exercise demonstrates that the approaches are not mutually exclusive but instead can be used to complement one another.     

国家兴亡 匹夫有责——记河北易县狼牙山道观石海中、李圆忠道长

去年是中国抗战暨世界反法西斯战争胜利60周年。在这场正义战争中,中国共产党起了中流砥柱的作用。回想过去,我们一定要牢记历史教训,不忘国耻,大力弘扬伟大的抗战精神。展望未来,我们更加积极与时俱进,为中华民族伟大复兴谱写光辉新篇。在这个值得纪念的日子里,人们倍加怀念老