Scenario Planning: The Basics

This article covers the basics of scenario planning: Why scenarios? What are scenarios? How do you develop scenarios? After covering the preliminaries—the constitution of the scenario team; interviews; research; the identification of a focal issue; set and setting for a scenario workshop; staffing; the trajectory of a scenario planning project—the article moves on to describe several methods for identifying a finite set of diverse scenario logics. After a set of scenarios has been developed, there are several different routes from scenarios to strategy. Early indicators can help identify which of several scenarios is in fact unfolding.     

The Basics of Brain Development

Over the past several decades, significant advances have been made in our understanding of the basic stages and mechanisms of mammalian brain development. Studies elucidating the neurobiology of brain development span the levels of neural organization from the macroanatomic, to the cellular, to the molecular. Together this large body of work provides a picture of brain development as the product of a complex series of dynamic and adaptive processes operating within a highly constrained, genetically organized but constantly changing context. The view of brain development that has emerged from the developmental neurobiology literature presents both challenges and opportunities to psychologists seeking to understand the fundamental processes that underlie social and cognitive development, and the neural systems that mediate them. This chapter is intended to provide an overview of some very basic principles of brain development, drawn from contemporary developmental neurobiology, that may be of use to investigators from a wide range of disciplines.     

Multidimensional Fechnerian Scaling: Basics

Fechnerian scaling is a theory of how a certain (Fechnerian) metric can be computed in a continuous stimulus space of arbitrary dimensionality from the shapes of psychometric (discrimination probability) functions taken in small vicinities of stimuli at which these functions reach their minima. This theory is rigorously derived in this paper from three assumptions about psychometric functions: (1) that they are continuous and have single minima around which they increase in all directions; (2) that any two stimulus differences from these minimum points that correspond to equal rises in discrimination probabilities are comeasurable in the small (i.e., asymptotically proportional), with a continuous coefficient of proportionality; and (3) that oppositely directed stimulus differences from a minimum point that correspond to equal rises in discrimination probabilities are equal in the small. A Fechnerian metric derived from these assumptions is an internal (or generalized Finsler) metric whose indicatrices are asymptotically similar to the horizontal cross-sections of the psychometric functions made just above their minima. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.     

论人道主义的历史演进和基本内涵

人道主义在人类历史上源渊流长 ,其影响波及社会生活的各个方面 ,对社会思想文化的影响尤其深刻。可以说 ,除马克思主义之外 ,它是最具影响的一种社会学说。在当代 ,一些左翼政党和学者提出 ,要挖掘马克思学说中的人文因素。这里所说的马克思学说中的人文因素 ,是指马克思关于人、人的本质、人的尊严、人的价值、自由平等以及人的全面发展和人类解放这些重要思想。概括地讲 ,就是马克思主义的人道主义思想。我也赞同这样的观点 ,即马克思以前关于人的学说的主要理论形态是人道主义。因此 ,我们今天研究人学必须深刻理解人道主义 ,包括历史上…     

An Evaluation of the NAMI Basics Program

This brief report describes results from an evaluation of NAMI Basics, a peer-delivered family education program for family caregivers of children and adolescents with mental illness. Over six classes, family members are given information (e.g. education about mental illness and treatments), skills training (e.g. family communication skills) and advocacy support. We report data from 36 caregivers who completed pre and posttest instruments measuring self-care, empowerment, and family problem-solving and communication skills. Results showed significant improvements in self-care, empowerment, and “incendiary” family communication after participation in the program. Results suggest that NAMI Basics may improve both parental functioning and familial processes. Implications and future directions are discussed.     

Logistic Regression

Logistic regression has probably been underutilized in clinical investigations of personality because of its relatively recent development (dictated by the need for computer programs to obtain maximum likelihood estimates), and the fact that use has been largely confined to the fields of biostatistics, epidemiology, and economics Its use should be given serious consideration when the outcome of interest is dichotomous (or polychotomous) in nature and the predictors of interest may be categorical or continuous. The logit transformation is quite tractable mathematically, and it embodies the notion of threshold, which may have relevance for many of the variables that are of interest to investigators in the field of personality. Furthermore, investigators with experience in multiple linear regression or contingency table analysis should have little trouble in transitioning to logistic regression. Logistic regression programs are readily available in the major statistical packages, all of which provide fairly standard output.     

Back to Basics: Belief Revision Through Direct Selection

Studia Logica - Traditionally, belief change is modelled as the construction of a belief set that satisfies a success condition. The success condition is usually that a specified sentence should be...     

Back to Basics: The Psychoanalytic Conceptualization of Motivation

Reconsideration of motivation, a fundamental concept in psychoanalytic theory, engages us with basic assumptions and postulates of our field and draws us to the borders with neighboring scientific elaborations of the design, structure, and function of the mind. This paper presents a concept of motivation from a perspective in modern conflict theory and correlates this concept with current thinking in evolutionary biology. The challenges that this correlation raises for all psychoanalytic approaches to motivation are discussed. Natural selection has fundamentally organized motivation in accord with the principle of inclusive fitness. Adaptive motivations of self-interest achieved through social success are paramount. In mind sciences there is a growing appreciation of the innately modular mind with mounting evidence for domain and content-specific evolved psychological mechanisms, the modern term for instincts. In regard to motivation in modern conflict theory, evolved mechanisms and predispositions are innately linked to pleasure–unpleasure and include, importantly, motivations of self-interest. The pleasure–unpleasure principle regulates motivation throughout life. Early mother–child interactions are vital to the development and contextualization of motivation; however, these interactions themselves depend on mutually coadapted mechanisms that give vectors and impose constraints on every primary relationship. In evading innate contributions there is a danger of embarking on a new creationist paradigm.     

Back to Basics with Mixed-Effects Models: Nine Take-Away Points

Purpose

Multilevel mixed effects models are widely used in organizational behavior and organizational psychology to test and advance theory. At times, however, the complexity of the models leads researchers to draw erroneous inferences or otherwise use the models in less than optimal ways. We present nine take-away points intended to enhance the theoretical precision and utility of the models.

Approach

We demonstrate our points using two types of simulated data: one in which group membership is irrelevant, and the other in which relationships exist only because of group membership. We then demonstrate that the effects we observe in simulated data replicate in organizational data.

Findings

Little that we address will be new to methodology experts; nonetheless, we draw together a variety of points that we believe will help advance both theory and analytic rigor in multilevel analyses.

Implications

We make two points that run somewhat counter to conventional norms. First, we argue that mixed-effects models are appropriate even when ICC(1) values associated with the outcome data are small and non-significant. Second, we show that high ICC(2) values are not a prerequisite for detecting emergent multilevel relationships.

Originality/Value

The article is designed to be a resource for researchers who are learning about and applying mixed-effects (i.e., multilevel) models.

     

Back to Basics: Problems and Prospects for Applied Philosophy

ABSTRACT This paper is an account of a response to a well-intentioned and genuinely naive question concerning the nature of 'applied philosophy'. It indicates differing points of view concerning the nature of philosophy and what one might or might not expect from it. It tries to synthesise these points of view into a position that sees philosophy as continuous with that attitude of mind that was epitomised by Socrates, an attitude of mind which is directed to every aspect or dimension of human life. The notion of the enquiring activist is borrowed to encapsulate this attitude as a valuable goal of 'applied philosophy'.     

Improved Regression Calibration

The likelihood for generalized linear models with covariate measurement error cannot in general be expressed in closed form, which makes maximum likelihood estimation taxing. A popular alternative is regression calibration which is computationally efficient at the cost of inconsistent estimation. We propose an improved regression calibration approach, a general pseudo maximum likelihood estimation method based on a conveniently decomposed form of the likelihood. It is both consistent and computationally efficient, and produces point estimates and estimated standard errors which are practically identical to those obtained by maximum likelihood. Simulations suggest that improved regression calibration, which is easy to implement in standard software, works well in a range of situations.     

On the Use of Nonparametric Regression in Assessing Parametric Regression Models

We develop a new method for assessing the adequacy of a smooth regression function based on nonparametric regression and the bootstrap. Our methodology allows users to detect systematic misfit and to test hypotheses of the form “the proposed smooth regression model is not significantly different from the smooth regression model that generated these data.” We also provide confidence bands on the location of nonparametric regression estimates assuming that the proposed regression function is true, allowing users to pinpoint regions of misfit. We illustrate the application of the new method, using local linear nonparametric regression, both where an error model is assumed and where the error model is an unknown non-stationary function of the predictor.