Future Thinking in Disadvantaged Situations: The Role of Outcome Delays and Competitive Issues in Negotiation

Extant literature suggests that delaying the outcomes of negotiations can have salutary effects on the joint outcomes of participants. However, this literature has not examined the impact that outcome delays have on the success of individual negotiators. We argue that in situations where a player's preference on an issue involves a lack of legitimacy, an outcome delay may advantage the presentation of that issue. In addition, we suggest that this effect is more likely to be present in situations where competition is high, specifically, where the parties have few opportunities for cooperation. An experimental dyadic negotiation exercise involving 306 undergraduate participants was conducted to test these hypotheses. Results suggest that the introduction of an outcome delay helps to reduce the negative effects of a legitimacy disadvantage in the absence of alternate opportunities for collaboration.     

Extensions of a versatile randomization test for assessing single-case intervention effects

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the statistical properties of two extensions of the Levin-Wampold (1999) single-case simultaneous start-point model's comparative effectiveness randomization test. The two extensions were (a) adapting the test to situations where there are more than two different intervention conditions and (b) examining the test's performance in classroom-based intervention situations, where the number of time periods (and associated outcome observations) is much smaller than in the contexts for which the test was originally developed. Various Monte Carlo sampling situations were investigated, including from one to five participant blocks per condition and differing numbers of time periods, potential intervention start points, degrees of within-phase autocorrelation, and effect sizes. For all situations, it was found that the Type I error probability of the randomization test was maintained at an acceptable level. With a few notable exceptions, respectable power was observed only in situations where the numbers of observations and potential intervention start points were relatively large, effect sizes were large, and the degree of within-phase autocorrelation was relatively low. It was concluded that the comparative effectiveness randomization test, with its desirable internal validity and statistical-conclusion validity features, is a versatile analytic tool that can be incorporated into a variety of single-case school psychology intervention research situations.     

Comment on “Theoretical risks and tabular asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the slow progress of soft psychology”

A serious problem with Popperian falsificationism in the presence of auxiliary hypotheses and experimental conditions, in addition to a theory under test, is raised by Meehl. In brief, a negative result endangers both the theory in question, and the auxiliary hypotheses; which should we reject? I discuss how considering series of studies, rather than a single study, helps make this problem somewhat more tractable. I treat situations where negative results are in hand, as well as situations where positive results may be discounted by skeptics who question auxiliary hypotheses.     

Sun and water: on a modulus-based measurement of happiness

Most happiness researchers use semantic differential or Likert scales to assess happiness. Such conventionally used scales are susceptible to scale renorming (interpretation of scales differently in different contexts) and can produce a specious relativism effect (e.g., rating a low-income person happier than a high-income person in situations where the low-income person is not happier). Building on related psychophysical measurements, the authors propose a simple, survey-friendly, modulus-based scale of happiness and show that it is less susceptible to specious relativism than conventional rating scales but can still catch genuine relativism (e.g., rating a low-income person to be happier than a high-income person in situations where the low-income person is indeed happier).     

Did the instigator intend to provoke? A key moderator in the relation between trait aggression and aggressive behavior

The purpose of this study was to investigate the cross‐situational consistency of trait aggression in provoking situations where an instigator (1) clearly intended to provoke, (2) clearly intended not to provoke, or (3) where presence of intention was ambiguous. It was hypothesized that cross‐situational consistency would be substantial, and that trait aggression would have the greatest impact on aggressive behavior in ambiguous situations. Participants were 80 female and 38 male undergraduate students. They completed the Aggression Questionnaire [Buss and Perry, J Pers Soc Psychol, 1992, pp. 452], read a set of 24 vignettes depicting conflict situations and rated their perceived likelihood of becoming angry and aggressive in those situations. An overall cross‐situational consistency correlation coefficient of r=.47 was found. It was also found that trait aggression had a significantly greater effect on the likelihood of aggressive responses in the ambiguous and intentional situations than it did in the unintentional situations. These results are discussed in relation to trait activation and hostile attribution bias. Aggr. Behav. 30:409–424, 2004. © 2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Circular interpretation of regression coefficients

The interpretation of the effect of predictors in projected normal regression models is not straight-forward. The main aim of this paper is to make this interpretation easier such that these models can be employed more readily by social scientific researchers. We introduce three new measures: the slope at the inflection point (b_c), average slope (AS) and slope at mean (SAM) that help us assess the marginal effect of a predictor in a Bayesian projected normal regression model. The SAM or AS are preferably used in situations where the data for a specific predictor do not lie close to the inflection point of a circular regression curve. In this case b_c is an unstable and extrapolated effect. In addition, we outline how the projected normal regression model allows us to distinguish between an effect on the mean and spread of a circular outcome variable. We call these types of effects location and accuracy effects, respectively. The performance of the three new measures and of the methods to distinguish between location and accuracy effects is investigated in a simulation study. We conclude that the new measures and methods to distinguish between accuracy and location effects work well in situations with a clear location effect. In situations where the location effect is not clearly distinguishable from an accuracy effect not all measures work equally well and we recommend the use of the SAM.     

Regression I. Experimental approaches to regression

The concept of regression is considered with an emphasis on the differences between the positions of Freud and Jung regarding its significance. The paper discusses the results of experimental analyses of individual experience dynamics (from gene expression changes and impulse neuronal activity in animals to prosocial behaviour in healthy humans at different ages, and humans in chronic pain) in those situations where regression occurs: stress, disease, learning, highly emotional states and alcohol intoxication. Common mechanisms of regression in all these situations are proposed. The mechanisms of regression can be described as reversible dedifferentiation, which is understood as a relative increase of the representation of low-differentiated (older) systems in the actualized experience. In all of the cases of dedifferentiation mentioned above, the complexity of the systemic organization of behaviour significantly decreases.     

Procedural justice in authority relations: the strength of outcome dependence influences people's reactions to voice

In this article, we study how the strength of outcome dependence, defined as the extent to which people's outcomes depend on authority's decisions, influences their reactions to voice or no-voice procedures. We suggest that in situations where people are strongly outcome dependent they assume that the authority may not consider their views, and therefore voice procedures exert less influence on people's procedure judgments than in situations where they are not strongly outcome dependent. Findings of two experiments corroborate this line of reasoning: In strongly outcome dependent situations, recipients' procedure judgments are influenced less strongly by voice versus no-voice procedures than in moderate or weak outcome dependent situations. Furthermore, these effects were found for both pre-decision voice (Experiment 1) and for post-decision voice (Experiment 2). It is concluded that strong outcome dependence decreases the value-expressive function of voice opportunities. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The bystander-effect: a meta-analytic review on bystander intervention in dangerous and non-dangerous emergencies

Research on bystander intervention has produced a great number of studies showing that the presence of other people in a critical situation reduces the likelihood that an individual will help. As the last systematic review of bystander research was published in 1981 and was not a quantitative meta-analysis in the modern sense, the present meta-analysis updates the knowledge about the bystander effect and its potential moderators. The present work (a) integrates the bystander literature from the 1960s to 2010, (b) provides statistical tests of potential moderators, and (c) presents new theoretical and empirical perspectives on the novel finding of non-negative bystander effects in certain dangerous emergencies as well as situations where bystanders are a source of physical support for the potentially intervening individual. In a fixed effects model, data from over 7,700 participants and 105 independent effect sizes revealed an overall effect size of g = -0.35. The bystander effect was attenuated when situations were perceived as dangerous (compared with non-dangerous), perpetrators were present (compared with non-present), and the costs of intervention were physical (compared with non-physical). This pattern of findings is consistent with the arousal-cost-reward model, which proposes that dangerous emergencies are recognized faster and more clearly as real emergencies, thereby inducing higher levels of arousal and hence more helping. We also identified situations where bystanders provide welcome physical support for the potentially intervening individual and thus reduce the bystander effect, such as when the bystanders were exclusively male, when they were naive rather than passive confederates or only virtually present persons, and when the bystanders were not strangers.     

Modelling motivation and habit in stable travel mode contexts

The habitual action perspective suggests that where transport users have strong travel choice habits, motivation will have no effect on behaviour. This has commonly been demonstrated in situations where travel habits and intentions conflict, but in stable decision settings intentions and habits will correspond. This paper reports two studies which demonstrate the moderating effect of habit on the intention–behaviour relationship within established commuting contexts. Results illustrate how motivational accounts of travel behaviour may be misleading if statistical significance of correlational data is the main criterion for model acceptance. Alternative methods for theory testing are discussed, and strategies for disrupting driving habits reviewed.     

Anxiety enhances threat processing without competition among multiple inputs: a diffusion model analysis

Enhanced processing of threatening information is a well established phenomenon among high-anxious individuals. This effect is most reliably shown in situations where 2 or more items compete for processing resources, suggesting that input competition is a critical component of the effect. However, it could be that there are small effects in situations without input competition, but the dependent measures typically used are not sensitive enough to detect them. The present study analyzed data from a noncompetition task, single-string lexical decision, with the diffusion model, a decision process model that provides a more direct measure of performance differences than either response times or accuracy alone. The diffusion model analysis showed a consistent processing advantage for threatening words in high-anxious individuals, whereas traditional comparisons showed no significant differences. These results challenge the view that input competition is necessary for enhanced threat processing. Implications for theories of anxiety are discussed.     

Sex characteristics,task clarity,and authority

This study was conducted to investigate the effect of sexual stereotyping on the exercise of authority. The hypotheses were that the sexual composition of the group affects the authority behavior of group leaders when the task has low clarity but that sex characteristics have no effect on authority behavior when the task has high clarity. These predictions were expected to hold both in situations where there is a direct association between sex and the task ability and in situations where no such connection is established. As predicted, no significant difference was found in the number of high control acts made by male and female leaders in the high task clarity conditions, even when sex was directly related to the task ability. Also as hypothesized, sex effects did operate strongly in the low task clarity conditions. Male leaders made significantly more high control acts than female leaders, even in conditions where no prior relation was established between sex and the task ability. Thus, these results indicate that the effect of sex characteristics on the exercise of authority is enhanced in low task clarity situations and is neutralized in high task clarity situations.A preliminary version of this paaper was presented at the West Coast Conference for Small Group Research, San Francisco, California, April 24, 1974. We would like to acknowledge the comments made by Anne McMahon and Mary Walshok and the research assistance provided by Sue Aldrich, Patti Baird, Jim Hart, Debbie Jones, Glenn Kassel, Jane Morrison, Karen Scheblein, and Kay Smith.     

Keeping the illusion of control under control: Ceilings, floors, and imperfect calibration

Prior research has claimed that people exaggerate probabilities of success by overestimating personal control in situations that are heavily or completely chance-determined. We examine whether such overestimation of control persists in situations where people do have control. Our results suggest a simple model that accounts for prior findings on illusory control as well as for situations where actual control is high: People make imperfect estimates of their level of control. By focusing on situations marked by low control, prior research has created the illusion that people generally overestimate their level of control. Across three studies, we show that when they have a great deal of control, people under-estimate it. Implications for research on perceived control and co-variation assessment are discussed.     

Methodological and assessment considerations in evaluating reinforcement programs in applied settings

The extensive use of reinforcement programs in applied settings has led to experimentation that often fails to consider potential problems in design. The logic of the within-subject design is reviewed and specific designs employed in reinforcement programs are discussed. For each design (ABAB, or multiple-baseline design across behaviors, individuals, or situations), effects are discussed that make that design less powerful with respect to demonstrating the effect of the experimental variable. Problems in interpreting results of experiments in this area of inquiry are evaluated from the standpoint of internal and external validity. The issue of control groups is presented with considerations as to situations that require their use. Finally, the assessment strategy for evaluating operant programs is discussed and recommendations are made for measurement of behaviors in addition to the target response.     

Understanding why and how individuals choose to help others: indirect reciprocal considerations and the moderating role of situation severity

In this article, we examine the impact of how helpful an individual is toward third parties on people's willingness to help that individual. Our results show lower willingness to help those that are unhelpful toward others. Further, varying levels of severity of the situation in which help is needed moderates this relationship. Specifically, in less severe situations (i.e., where withholding help does not lead to dire consequences), willingness to help was greater when recipients were seen as being helpful toward others. This effect was also found in moderate severity situations, although to a lesser extent. More severe situations, however, caused people to want to help regardless of how helpful the recipients themselves were. Empathetic feelings toward the recipients mediated these findings.     

What is wrong with Allais' Certainty Effect?

Several choice situations are constructed to explore whether the violation of expected utility theory in an Allais paradox choice situation can be attributed to what Tversky and Kahneman (1986) describe as the Allais certainty effect. Problems are developed where the Allais certainty effect would be expected to occur but results show it does not. Other problems demonstrate that the Allais ‘paradox’ is observed in the absence of the Allais certainty effect. The study concludes that, although expected utility theory is known to be wrong through the Allais paradox, the Allais certainty effect does not appear to be able to rescue it.     

Purchasing decisions,partial knowledge,and economic search experimental and simulation evidence

Several experimental studies have discovered high-performing heuristic strategies in the search for the most economic price of a good in situations where a searcher has both full prior knowledge and no prior knowledge of the underlying price distribution. This paper describes a new experiment set in a more realistic ‘partial-knowledge’ framework. Several new search heuristics are suggested which match well with observed behaviour, and which, over a large number of simulated trials, perform well in comparison with the optimal model and better than previously reported ‘no-knowledge’ rules.     

Individual risk taking for self and others

In this experimental study, individual risk taking for self and others was observed for three experimental situations (the choice dilemma situations of Kogan and Wallach, 1964, the Pruitt and Teger gambling situation, 1969, and a simple one-trial gamble game). The results of the present study suggest that one takes as much risk for oneself as for somebody else. An attempt was made to determine to what degree the results could be explained by properties of the experimental situations.     

Accuracy of head orientation perception in triadic situations: experiment in a virtual environment

Research has revealed high accuracy in the perception of gaze in dyadic (sender- receiver) situations. Triadic situations differ from these in that an observer has to report where a sender is looking, not relative to himself. This is more difficult owing to the less favourable position of the observer. The effect of the position of the observer on the accuracy of the identification of the sender's looking direction is relatively unexplored. Here, we investigate this, focusing exclusively on head orientation. We used a virtual environment to ensure good stimulus control. We found a mean angular error close to 5 degrees. A higher observer viewpoint results in more accurate identification. Similarly, a viewpoint with a smaller angle to the sender's midsagittal plane leads to an improvement in identification performance. Also, we found an effect of underestimation of the error in horizontal direction, similar to findings for dyadic situations.