Computer-augmented decision making

The principal judgmental components of multiattribute decision making are examined here with specific reference to how these components can be captured electronically. Once captured, a function, rule, or algorithm may be executed for the integration of this information and the selection of the optimal alternative(s). Two kinds of algorithms are discussed: one based on linear models, the other on fuzzy-set theory and ratio scaling. With on-line support and certain assumptions about human biases (which lead to nonoptimal decisions), the quality of decisions can be enhanced considerably. The principal concerns are with end-user acceptance of computer augmented decisions.     

The majority rule in individual decision making

This research investigates an understudied decision heuristic, the majority rule. By using the rule, decision makers choose the option superior on most of the available cues. Cues are broadly defined, including advisors and attributes. We propose that decision makers are more likely to use the majority rule when encouraged to employ intra-cue comparison as opposed to intra-option integration, and that their choices are influenced by factors that influence which option appears majority superior. We corroborate the two propositions in four studies. In Studies 1 and 2, we explore two factors that moderate use of the majority rule through facilitating intra-cue comparison or intra-option integration—response mode and information display format. In Studies 3 and 4, we explore two factors that influence choice through influencing which option appears majority-superior—cue-unpacking and cue-regrouping.     

The role of attitudes in memory-based decision making

Frequently, considerable knowledge of the attributes of decision alternatives is available in memory so as to permit a thoughtful and deliberate choice. However, in many instances, individuals neglect to use such knowledge and instead rely on "attitude-based" strategy to make a memory-based decision. The findings from two experiments suggest that as to the motivation to make a correct decision or the opportunity to use the available attribute knowledge decreases, the likelihood that attitudes will guide a memory-based decision increases. The findings illustrate the functional role attitudes play in guiding decisions and behavior. By providing a ready means of evaluating choice alternatives, attitudes enable an individual to make a decision relatively quickly and effortlessly.     

The place of prudence in medical decision making

In the world of practical affairs in general, no less than in the matter of medicalethical decision making, there is place for the possession of the classical virtue of prudence. Most persons involved in making such decisions are interested exclusively in solving a case, and ignore the importance of growing in virtue and character at the same time while having their decision reflect prudential reasoning. A study of the virtue of prudence shows that it is a much misunderstood virtue, and requires deeper penetration into its meaning to grasp its place in humanizing medical decisions.     

Dynamic multi-criteria decision making

Most medium-and long-term decision making in industry and government can be viewed as dynamic multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), in which the decision makers are free to alter the emphasis placed on each objective in the light of developing circumstances. In this paper the problem of time-dependent weights in MCDM is discussed and an analysis of empirical data associated with dynamic decision making is presented.     

Numeracy and decision making

A series of four studies explored how the ability to comprehend and transform probability numbers relates to performance on judgment and decision tasks. On the surface, the tasks in the four studies appear to be widely different; at a conceptual level, however, they all involve processing numbers and the potential to show an influence of affect. Findings were consistent with highly numerate individuals being more likely to retrieve and use appropriate numerical principles, thus making themselves less susceptible to framing effects, compared with less numerate individuals. In addition, the highly numerate tended to draw different (generally stronger or more precise) affective meaning from numbers and numerical comparisons, and their affective responses were more precise. Although generally helpful, this tendency may sometimes lead to worse decisions. The less numerate were influenced more by competing, irrelevant affective considerations. Analyses showed that the effect of numeracy was not due to general intelligence. Numerical ability appears to matter to judgments and decisions in important ways.     

Personality components of decision making

Summary Relationships between proneness to behavioral stereotypy (Ster) measured in a problem-solving task (electromaze) and decision-making behavior (under conditions of risk and certainty, chance and skill) were investigated using 64 subjects. Subjects more stereotyped in the electromaze (Ster ⁺) tended to also be more stereotyped in their decision-making behavior. Ster was not related to extraversion, neuroticism, rigidity or overall electromaze performance, but Ster ^– more often required an excessive number of trials for task solution. The decision making of males tended to be more stereotyped. The results were discussed in terms of the construct validity and theoretical interpretation of Ster.

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Zusammenfassung Es wurden Beziehungen zwischen der Neigung zur Verhaltensstereotypie (Ster), die bei einer Problemlösungsaufgabe gemessen wurde, und dem Entscheidungsverhalten (mit und ohne Risiko, wobei der Erfolg sowohl durch den Zufall wie auch durch das Können der Vp bestimmt wurde) untersucht. Vpn, die sich im Electromaze stereotyp verhielten (Ster ⁺), verhielten sich auch bei ihren Entscheidungen stereotyp. Es wurden keine Beziehungen zwischen Ster und den Variablen Extraversion, Neurotizismus, Rigidität und Gesamtleistung im Electromaze gefunden, jedoch benötigten Ster ^– häufiger eine extrem lange Serie von Versuchen zur Aufgabenlösung. Die männliche Vpn neigten stärker dazu, in Entscheidungssituationen stereotyp zu reagieren. Die Ergebnisse wurden vom Standpunkt der Konstruktvalidität und der theoretischen Grundlage der Ster aus diskutiert.

     

Conditional mechanisms of decision making

Decision making is an important link in the central part of a reflex—the “mental element” according to Sechenov. The reflex nature of this mental process is revealed in experiments where a voluntary motor reaction is chosen unconsciously as a response to subliminal conditional visual stimuli. Thus, learning which is reflected by “advance” or prior decision making can be performed unconsciously through a conditional reflex. But, once elaborated, temporary connections are preserved only in shortterm memory. They are not transferred to long-term memory, as in the case of recognition of signals. Decision making, being the central mental part of the reflex, like any activity of the brain, is performed in time by a certain cortical structure. Analysis of P₃₀₀ amplitudes shows that decision making is related to local activation of the frontal parts of the cerebral hemispheres. We suggest that the local activation of these areas is induced by conditional excitation of the neuronal mechanisms of focused attention. It provides a “command” to perform a voluntary motor reaction adequate to the conditions at hand. A large part of latency of voluntary motor response of man is spent on decision making, especially in discrimination of signals and in choice of reactions.     

决策与判断中的分解效应

分解效应是人类主观判断中的一种较稳固的行为偏差,并且判断结果会对随后的决策产生重要影响,因此,对该领域研究成果的全面梳理具有重要的理论意义和实际价值。本文主要介绍了支持理论中的分解效应,总结梳理了概率判断与时间判断中分解效应的研究,综述了其他社会判断中的分解效应研究成果,展望了决策与判断中的分解效应的未来研究方向。通过上述内容的阐述,希望能为该领域研究者提供新的思路,推动国内相关领域研究的发展。     

The ultimate sampling dilemma in experience-based decision making

Computer simulations and 2 experiments demonstrate the ultimate sampling dilemma, which constitutes a serious obstacle to inductive inferences in a probabilistic world. Participants were asked to take the role of a manager who is to make purchasing decisions based on positive versus negative feedback about 3 providers in 2 different product domains. When information sampling (from a computerized database) was over, they had to make inferences about actual differences in the database from which the sample was drawn (e.g., about the actual superiority of different providers, or about the most likely origins of negatively valenced products). The ultimate sampling dilemma consists in a forced choice between 2 search strategies that both have their advantages and their drawbacks: natural sampling and deliberate sampling of information relevant to the inference task. Both strategies leave the sample unbiased for specific inferences but create errors or biases for other inferences.     

The role of chance events in career decision making

Two studies are reported that investigate the role of chance events as influences in career decision making. In study one, the results of a large-scale survey of high-school and university students (N = 772) investigating influences on their career decision making are presented. Chance events were reported as influencing the career decisions of 69.1% of the sample. In the second study, the role of locus of control was found to be moderately associated with reporting chance events. More External control individuals tend to report more chance events than their Internal control counterparts. Implications for career choice theory and research are discussed.     

The effect of visual signals on spatial decision making

We examined the effect of an irrelevant visual transient on the decision where to look for a hidden object. Participants also performed a conventional ‘inhibition of return’ localization task. In Experiments 1 and 2 the two tasks were blocked and in Experiments 3 and 4 they were randomly interleaved. In every experiment there was a bias to select the cued location in the spatial decision task. This facilitory effect was greatest when the cue occurred at a strategically unfavored location and even occurred for participants who reported strategically selecting a non-cued location, indicating that the facilitory effect is automatic and independent of other strategic biases. Inhibition of return was observed only when the tasks were blocked and the localization task preceded the decision task. The findings suggests that spatial decisions engage different attentional control settings than those engaged when detecting visual transients; and that this attentional mode affects the processing of visual transients such that they do not inhibit the subsequent speeded detection of onset targets.     

The application of correspondence analysis to multiple-criteria decision making

The aim of this paper is to show how correspondence analysis can be a useful aid in multiple-criteria decision making, particularly in the case of categorical criteria values. Under different types of input information, the technique is used to perform some preliminary analyses with a bonus of providing a simultaneous graphical representation of the alternatives and criteria. This picture can provide a better understanding of the structure of the two sets of variables to the decision maker before a decision is made.     

The role of ambiguity tolerance in career decision making

The role of ambiguity tolerance in career decision making was examined in a sample of college students (n = 275). Three hypotheses were proposed regarding the direct prediction of ambiguity tolerance on career indecision, the indirect prediction of ambiguity tolerance on career indecision through environmental and self explorations, and the moderation effect of ambiguity tolerance on the link of environmental and self explorations with career indecision. Results supported the significance of ambiguity tolerance with respect to career indecision, finding that it directly predicted general indecisiveness, dysfunctional beliefs, lack of information, and inconsistent information, and moderated the prediction of environmental exploration on inconsistent information. The implications of this study are discussed and suggestions for future research are provided.     

The effects of feedback format on dynamic decision making

The tendency for people to perform poorly on dynamic decision-making tasks has been attributed to their inability to form adequate mental models of dynamic systems (Sterman, 1994). An alternative explanation is that the tabular feedback formats used in previous studies do not facilitate mental representations of the dynamic task and lead to processing overload. Drawing on research in the human factors area, this study examined the impact of graphical versus tabular feedback formats on performance, response times, and learning on a dynamic inventory control task under differing levels of complexity. The graphical feedback group performed better but the tabular group showed stronger evidence of learning. The two groups did not differ in response times. Records of decision rationales showed that participants were aware of complexity factors but were unable to cope with them effectively under either feedback format. The proximity compatibility principle ( Wickens & Carswell, 1995) from human factors, which argues that feedback must be matched to the processing requirements of the task, provides a useful theoretical framework for the design and testing of feedback formats for organizational tasks and criteria.     

The function of concrete emotions in rational decision making

The present study investigates the role of anticipated concrete emotions in preferential decision making. Concrete emotions are conceptualized as a special set of attributes in a multi-attribute utility framework. It is argued that emotions cannot be reduced to patterns of objective attribute values. It is hypothesized that decisions are determined by both concrete emotions and objective attributes. Furthermore, the relative impact of emotions is hypothesized to vary with characteristics of the decision task, namely, the decision domain (persons vs. cities), the similarity of the decision options (similar vs. dissimilar), and the response mode (rating vs. ranking). Four sets of decision options were presented to subjects on a questionnaire. For each option, subjects indicated a preference rating, a ranking of the option within its set, the intensity of four concrete emotions, and the degree to which the option is characterized by four objective attributes. Regression analyses show that including emotions as predictors significantly increases the portion of explained variance of preferences. The relative impact of emotions is moderated by the response mode. Factor analyses yield two independent factors of positive and negative emotions. Surprisingly, only positive emotions are significantly correlated with preferences. We conclude that concrete emotions are a necessary and non-redundant part of the decision process.     

The enduring impact of transient emotions on decision making

People often do not realize they are being influenced by an incidental emotional state. As a result, decisions based on a fleeting incidental emotion can become the basis for future decisions and hence outlive the original cause for the behavior (i.e., the emotion itself). Using a sequence of ultimatum and dictator games, we provide empirical evidence for the enduring impact of transient emotions on economic decision making. Behavioral consistency and false consensus are presented as potential underlying processes.