Emotion,Decision, and Risk: Betting on Gambles versus Betting on People

We examined the effects of two emotions, fear and anger, on risk‐taking behavior in two types of tasks: Those in which uncertainty is generated by a randomizing device (“lottery risk”) and those in which it is generated by the uncertain behavior of another person (“person‐based risk”). Participants first completed a writing task to induce fear or anger. They then made choices either between lotteries (Experiment 1) or between actions in risky two‐person decisions (Experiments 2 and 3). The experiments involved substantial real‐money payoffs. Replicating earlier studies (which used hypothetical rewards), Experiment 1 showed that fearful participants were more risk‐averse than angry participants in lottery‐risk tasks. However—the key result of this study—fearful participants were substantially less risk‐averse than angry participants in a two‐person task involving person‐based risk (Experiment 2). Experiment 3 offered options and payoffs identical to those of Experiment 2 but with lottery‐type risk. Risk‐taking returned to the pattern of Experiment 1. The impact of incidental emotions on risk‐taking appears to be contingent on the class of uncertainty involved. For lottery risk, fear increased the frequency of risk‐averse choices and anger reduced it. The reverse pattern was found when uncertainty in the decision was person‐based. Further, the effect was specifically on differences in willingness to take risks rather than on differences in judgments of how much risk was present. The impact of different emotions on risk‐taking or risk‐avoiding behavior is thus contingent on the type, as well as the degree, of uncertainty the decision maker faces. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Similarity,multiple estimations,and the anchoring effect

This paper compares the Selective Accessibility and Scale Distortion theories of anchoring as explanations for anchoring tasks involving (1) perceived dissimilarity between comparison and estimation objects and (2) successive estimation tasks. We begin by describing the two theories of anchoring and what each would predict for these conditions. Two studies are presented in which multiple estimates are made following a single comparison task and the effect sizes of these estimates are correlated to operationalizations of similarity. In the first study, the stimuli varied with respect to how well they fit within an existing category reasonably familiar to the participant population: aircraft. In the second study, the stimuli varied with respect to external features that did not define the category: the brand and location of hotels. In both studies, we find that the anchoring effect size has a positive correlation with the semantic similarity between the comparison and estimation objects, a finding consistent with Selective Accessibility.     

Risk,Uncertainty, and Gender Stereotypes in Healthcare Decisions

Disparities in healthcare access, treatment, and outcomes are widely prevalent for women and minorities. At the same time, healthcare choices have become increasingly intricate and correspondingly uncertain. We review contemporary issues in healthcare for women, with emphasis on access to care and on healthcare disparities. In the belief that forewarned is forearmed, we review the role of sexism and the psychology of decision making in producing health disparities. In the face of this complexity, therapists can help women seek sound healthcare and make informed choices. Implications for feminist therapy are suggested that emphasize client empowerment and agency.     

Decisions,actions, and the appropriateness of confidence in knowledge

This research examines the appropriateness of confidence (i.e., subjective probability judgments) in knowledge associated with decisions and actions of social importance. One hundred and thirty seven participants completed a 50 item questionnaire assessing their knowledge of the two leading candidates in the 1988 presidential election in the U.S.A. Ninety one of the respondents completed the questionnaire one week prior to the election, whereas the other 46 completed the questionnaire on election day shortly after voting. After each item in the questionnaire, all respondents indicated whether or not the item content represented a reason why they voted (or intended to vote) for or against the candidate to whom the item referred. Within-person results indicated that, in comparison to items that were not cited as reasons for voting intentions or voting behavior, items endorsed as reasons were characterized by better accuracy and resolution, but worse overconfidence. Between groups, decision makers were significantly more accurate and better calibrated than those who had not made a decision between the candidates. Implications of inappropriate confidence on decision making effectiveness are discussed.     

Concepts,Constructs, Cognitive Psychology,and Personal Construct Theory

In this article, I have addressed the efforts to locate and integrate personal construct psychology with other perspectives in psychology (Neimeyer, 1985). The general domain is cognitive psychology, but with a focus on the basic building block of the cognitive perspective, the concept. Personal construct psychology is particularly interesting in this regard at this time because Kelly (1955) was adamant that his construct encompassed more than concept. Now, 36 years after his deliberations, a discussion of concepts and constructs contributes to an ongoing theoretical debate in psychology that can only serve to better reinforce the discipline.     

Religion and Decisions About Marriage,Residence, Occupation,and Children

Using data from the first wave of the Portraits of American Life Study (PALS), we consider the extent to which people report that religious factors influence their decisions about career choice, marriage, residency, and number of children. We find significant positive relationships between the importance of religion or religious faith and the perceived influence of religious factors on one's choice of occupation, decision about whether or whom to marry, decision about where to live, and decision about how many children to have. We also observe significant interactions between the importance of religion or religious faith and religious tradition, but we find no consistent patterns across our decision‐making outcomes. Our preliminary conclusions raise significant questions about the broader relationship between religion, perception, and decision making.     

Multi-attribute,multi-alternative models of choice: Choice,reaction time,and process tracing

The first aim of this research is to compare computational models of multi-alternative, multi-attribute choice when attribute values are explicit. The choice predictions of utility (standard random utility & weighted valuation), heuristic (elimination-by-aspects, lexicographic, & maximum attribute value), and dynamic (multi-alternative decision field theory, MDFT, & a version of the multi-attribute linear ballistic accumulator, MLBA) models are contrasted on both preferential and risky choice data. Using both maximum likelihood and cross-validation fit measures on choice data, the utility and dynamic models are preferred over the heuristic models for risky choice, with a slight overall advantage for the MLBA for preferential choice. The response time predictions of these models (except the MDFT) are then tested. Although the MLBA accurately predicts response time distributions, it only weakly accounts for stimulus-level differences. The other models completely fail to account for stimulus-level differences. Process tracing measures, i.e., eye and mouse tracking, were also collected. None of the qualitative predictions of the models are completely supported by that data. These results suggest that the models may not appropriately represent the interaction of attention and preference formation. To overcome this potential shortcoming, the second aim of this research is to test preference-formation assumptions, independently of attention, by developing the models of attentional sampling (MAS) model family which incorporates the empirical gaze patterns into a sequential sampling framework. An MAS variant that includes attribute values, but only updates the currently viewed alternative and does not contrast values across alternatives, performs well in both experiments. Overall, the results support the dynamic models, but point to the need to incorporate a framework that more accurately reflects the relationship between attention and the preference-formation process.     

Meaning making,adversity, and regulatory flexibility

Despite the widely accepted belief that meaning making is essential for mental health following adversity, the available research continues to provide mixed findings: meaning making is sometimes evident, sometimes not, and more frequently than we would expect associated with poor health outcomes. The papers that comprise this special issue of Memory put flesh to those bones by approaching the question from a narrative memory perspective. Meaning making, these studies demonstrate, is a multi-faceted phenomenon and whether it is necessary or adaptive depends on which particular form of meaning making is considered and on the context and timing in which it occurs. To situate these insights in a broader framework I consider parallels with the emergent literature on regulatory flexibility and briefly review recent research and theory on that construct as it has been applied in the literatures on coping and emotion regulation. Finally, I close by suggesting a basic framework, informed by the flexibility construct, that might guide future research on meaning making.     

A qualitative analysis of strategies for managing suicide-related events during deployment from the perspective of Army behavioral health providers,chaplains, and leaders

The purpose of this qualitative study was to investigate the use of strategies for managing suicide-related events (SREs; i.e., suicide deaths, suicide attempts, and suicidal ideation with a plan and intent to die) during deployment from the perspective of Army decision makers: behavioral health providers (BHPs), chaplains, and leaders. A total of 76 Army personnel participated in individual interviews or focus groups. Participants identified unit watch, weapon removal, medical evacuations, and debriefings as common strategies used to manage SREs in deployed settings. Many of these strategies were highlighted as short-term solutions only. Participants also underscored the importance of unit cohesion and communication among leaders, BHPs, and chaplains to effectively manage SREs. The need for structured guidelines for successfully managing SREs in deployed settings is discussed.     

Meaning making coping,making sense,and post-traumatic growth following the 9/11 terrorist attacks

According to the meaning making model, traumatic events disrupt global meaning systems, and meaning making coping helps restore congruency between global meaning and appraisals of traumatic events. We examined the contextual and coping predictors of two specific meanings made: having made sense and perceiving post-traumatic growth in a nationally representative sample of 1004 adults approximately six weeks after the September 11th terrorist attacks in the United States. Although the two meanings made were positively correlated, they had very different predictors: having made sense was primarily predicted by some aspects of meaning focused coping as well as other typically adaptive coping (e.g., active coping), but perceived growth was predicted by nearly all types of coping. Further, having made sense was related to less distress, but perceived growth was related to more distress. These results suggest that having made sense is a product of meaning focused and active coping and appears adaptive, while post-traumatic growth reflects a mix of positive functioning and continued distress and coping efforts.     

Modeling the Stroop phenomenon: processes, processing flow, and development

A model of the Stroop phenomenon is proposed which postulates that the classic effect is an additive function of three parameters, that is, dimension selection (decision making about which dimension to respond to), dimension identification (encoding and identification of the relevant dimension), and interference control (filtering out of interference from non-relevant dimensions). The study used stimuli addressed to three symbol systems (verbal, numerical, and figural), two types of stimulus composition (compatible vs. incompatible), and two types of dimension selection (decision needed about the to-be-identified dimension vs. no decision needed). Participants were 9, 11, 13, and 15 years old and they were tested twice. The model was found to hold under all stimulus and presentation conditions. Moreover, it was found that the three parameters are differentially related to age. The implications of the model for general theories of cognition and cognitive development are discussed.     

Task conflict,information processing,and decision-making: The damaging effect of relationship conflict

A popular theoretical assumption holds that task-related disagreements stimulate critical thinking, and thus may improve group decision making. Two recent meta-analyses showed, however, that task conflict can have a positive effect, a negative effect, or no effect at all on decision-making quality (De Dreu & Weingart, 2003; De Wit, Greer, & Jehn, 2012). In two studies, we built upon the suggestion of both meta-analyses that the presence of relationship conflict determines whether a task conflict is positively or negatively related to decision making. We hypothesized and found that the level of perceived relationship conflict during task conflict (Study 1), and the actual presence (vs. absence) of relationship conflict during task conflict (Study 2), increased group members’ rigidity in holding onto suboptimal initial preferences during decision making and thus led to poor decisions. In both studies the effect of relationship conflict on decision making was mediated by biased use of information.     

Action,inaction, and factors influencing perceived decision making

Two studies examined factors hypothesized to be related to the subjective perception of decision making. A total of 302 introductory psychology students read four hypothetical scenarios that varied on two dimensions: frequency of the behavior and whether the behavior was an action or an inaction (a 2 × 2 design). Subjects rated the scenarios on whether the actor made a decision. In Experiment 1, the frequency of behavior was unrelated to decision making. In addition, actions were given higher decision ratings than inactions in two scenarios, but lower ratings in the other two scenarios. In Experiment 2 the latter discrepancy was explained by ratings of whether the actor behaved thoughtfully rather than reflexively, in that these ratings mediated the action–decision rating relationship. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of sleep deprivation on executive functioning,cognitive abilities,metacognitive confidence,and decision making

Performance on many decision‐making tasks is underpinned by metacognitive monitoring, cognitive abilities, and executive functioning. Fatigue‐inducing conditions, such as sleep loss, compromise these factors, leading to decline in decision performance. Using a 40‐hr sleep deprivation protocol, we examined these factors and the resulting decision performance. Thirteen Australian Army male volunteers (aged 20–30 years) were tested at multiple time points on psychomotor vigilance, inhibitory control, task switching, working memory, short‐term memory, fluid intelligence, and decision accuracy and confidence in a medical diagnosis‐making test. Assessment took place in the morning and night over two consecutive days, during which participants were kept awake. Consistent with previous work, cognitive performance declined after a night without sleep. Extending previous findings, self‐regulation and self‐monitoring suffered significantly greater declines immediately after the sleepless night. These results indicate that the known decline in complex decision‐making performance under fatigue‐inducing conditions might be facilitated by metacognitive rather than cognitive mechanisms.     

Brainstorming,Brainstorming Rules and Decision Making

This study investigated the effect of brainstorming experience on the ability of groups to subsequently select the best ideas for implementation. Participants generated ideas either alone or in interactive groups and with either the regular brainstorming rules or with additional rules designed to further increase the number of ideas generated. All participants subsequently were asked to select their top five ideas in a group evaluation phase. Groups of individuals generating ideas in isolation (nominal groups) generated more ideas and more original ideas and were more likely to select original ideas during the group decision phase than interactive group brainstormers. Additional rules increased idea generation but not idea originality or idea selection.     

Exposure to Unethical Career Events: Effects on Decision Making,Climate, and Socialization

An implicit goal of many interventions intended to enhance integrity is to minimize peoples' exposure to unethical events. The intent of the present effort was to examine if exposure to unethical practices in the course of one's work is related to ethical decision making. Accordingly, 248 doctoral students in the biological, health, and social sciences were asked to complete a field appropriate measure of ethical decision making. In addition, they were asked to complete measures examining the perceived acceptability of unethical events and a measure examining perceptions of ethical climate. When these criterion measures were correlated with a measure examining the frequency with which they had been exposed to unethical events in their day-to-day work, it was found that event exposure was strongly related to ethical decision making but less strongly related to climate perceptions and perceptions of event acceptability. However, these relationships were moderated by level of experience. The implications of these findings for practices intended to improve ethics are discussed.     

Narcissism,confidence, and risk attitude

The present research addresses whether narcissists are more overconfident than others and whether this overconfidence leads to deficits in decision making. In Study 1, narcissism predicted overconfidence. This was attributable to narcissists' greater confidence despite no greater accuracy. In Study 2, participants were offered fair bets on their answers. Narcissists lost significantly more points in this betting task than non‐narcissists, due both to their greater overconfidence and greater willingness to bet. Finally, in Study 3, narcissists' predictions of future performance were based on performance expectations rather than actual performance. This research extends the literature on betting on knowledge to the important personality dimension of narcissism. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

行为决策研究的新取向——基于经验的决策

基于经验的决策是指,在统计概率情境中,个体通过重复选择与反馈获得选项的收益分布信息后进行的决策.基于经验的决策的研究范式主要包括探索-利用范式和探索→利用范式.其暗含的决策人假设是朴素直觉统计学家.其研究关注的主要内容是描述-经验的差异及其原因,以及基于经验的决策内部过程.未来的研究主要从描述-经验差异的原因、描述性决策范式下的结论的重新检验、基于经验的决策的解释模型及其应用研究等方面进行探讨.     

Meaning making,self‐determination theory,and the question of wisdom in personality

Self‐determination theory (SDT) has advanced the most comprehensive model of motives for human flourishing in the field of personality psychology and beyond. In this article, we evaluate SDT relative to the process of meaning making, particularly from a narrative perspective, showing what SDT can and cannot explain about the construction of self‐identity and its relation to human flourishing. On the one hand, SDT explains how subjective assessments of need fulfillment drive the process of self‐determined living. The internal motives that follow such fulfillment serve as important themes in people's life stories that predict several markers of hedonic and eudaimonic well‐being. On the other hand, SDT's focus on subjective fulfillment limits what SDT can explain about how wisdom, which is a canonical good of both eudaimonia and meaning making, helps people make sense of life's more difficult or unfulfilling events. SDT may facilitate a facet of wisdom that is more subjective and experiential but not the critical facet of wisdom defined by objectively more complex structures of interpretation.