Default Probability

A probability may be called “default” if it is neither derived from preestablished probabilities nor based on considerations of frequency or symmetry. Default probabilities presumably arise through reasoning based on causality and similarity. This article advances a model of default probability based on a featural approach to similarity. The accuracy of the model is assessed by comparing its predictions to the probabilities provided by undergraduates asked to reason about mammals.     

Shape constancy and a perceptual bias towards symmetry

In attempting to judge whether a briefly presented rotated figure was symmetrical (circle or square) or asymmetrical (ellipse or rectangle), a bias towards perceiving symmetry was evident. This bias appears to be perceptual rather than judgmental in origin in that it was affected neither by variations in the probability of occurrence of symmetrical figures nor by familiarization with the stimuli. A characterization of the stimulus similarity space based on the shape-slant invariance hypothesis is presented, and a model which incorporates both the similarity space and the symmetry bias is proposed. The model can account for our paradoxical finding that the more asymmetrical some projected images, the more likely they will be perceived as symmetrical. This model can also account for Massaro’s (1973, 1975) results on shape constancy. However, Massaro’s theory was not supported in that extension in depth did not account for increased difficulty of shape judgments.     

Visual similarity is stronger than semantic similarity in guiding visual search for numbers

Using a visual search task, we explored how behavior is influenced by both visual and semantic information. We recorded participants’ eye movements as they searched for a single target number in a search array of single-digit numbers (0–9). We examined the probability of fixating the various distractors as a function of two key dimensions: the visual similarity between the target and each distractor, and the semantic similarity (i.e., the numerical distance) between the target and each distractor. Visual similarity estimates were obtained using multidimensional scaling based on the independent observer similarity ratings. A linear mixed-effects model demonstrated that both visual and semantic similarity influenced the probability that distractors would be fixated. However, the visual similarity effect was substantially larger than the semantic similarity effect. We close by discussing the potential value of using this novel methodological approach and the implications for both simple and complex visual search displays.     

Michel Henry's Phenomenology of Aesthetic Experience and Husserlian Intentionality

In his essay 'The Pit and the Pyramid: Introduction to Hegel's Semiology', Jacques Derrida claims that there is a privilege of speech over writing inherent in Hegel's theory of signs. In this paper, I examine Derrida's criticism. While it is to Derrida's credit that he focusses on an area of Hegel's philosophy that has hardly been analysed, his reading is problematic in several regards. After presenting Derrida's main arguments, I pose three questions, the first of which belongs to the realm of subjective spirit, the second to objective spirit, and the third to absolute spirit. I shall then show that Hegel makes several statements in favour of a privilege of writing over speech - statements that are not merely parenthetic or marginal. Moreover, those claims that Hegel makes toward any privilege of speech are in the wrong place, namely, subjective spirit, for them to represent his final point of view.     

Estimating the probability of negative events

How well we are attuned to the statistics of our environment is a fundamental question in understanding human behaviour. It seems particularly important to be able to provide accurate assessments of the probability with which negative events occur so as to guide rational choice of preventative actions. One question that arises here is whether or not our probability estimates for negative events are systematically biased by their severity. In a minimal experimental context involving an unambiguous, objective representation of probability, we found that participants judged a controllable event as more likely to occur when its utility was extremely negative than when it was more neutral. A decision-theoretic explanation based on loss function asymmetries is advanced which supports the claim that probability estimates are not intrinsically biased by utilities.     

The nature of probability

The thesis of this article is that the nature of probability is centered on its formal properties, not on any of its standard interpretations. Section 2 is a survey of Bayesian applications. Section 3 focuses on two examples from physics that seem as completely objective as other physical concepts. Section 4 compares the conflict between subjective Bayesians and objectivists about probability to the earlier strident conflict in physics about the nature of force. Section 5 outlines a pragmatic approach to the various interpretations of probability. Finally, Sect. 6 argues that the essential formal nature of probability is expressed in the standard axioms, but more explicit attention should be given to the concept of randomness.     

Analogy and exchangeability in predictive inferences

An important problem in inductive probability theory is the design of exchangeable analogical methods, i.e., of exchangeable inductive methods that take into account certain considerations of analogy by similarity for predictive inferences. Here a precise reformulation of the problem of predictive analogy is given and a new family of exchangeable analogical methods is introduced.Firstly, it is proved that the exchangeable analogical method introduced by Skyrms (1993) does not satisfy the best known general principles of predictive analogy. Secondly, Skyrms's approach — consisting of the usage of particular hyper-Carnapian methods, i.e., mixtures of Carnapian inductive methods — is adopted in the design of a new family of exchangeable analogical methods. Lastly, it is proved that such methods satisfy an interesting general principle of predictive analogy.     

On Naturalism in Hegel's Philosophy of Spirit

In recent years, philosophers have become increasingly interested in a Hegelian approach to Aristotelian non-reductive naturalism. This paper points out a challenge faced by naturalist readings of Hegel's conception of spirit. For Hegel, spirit and nature are essentially distinct and even related in an antagonistic way. It is difficult to do full justice to this thought while at the same time reading Hegel as a naturalist. The paper also seeks to suggest a response to this challenge. Drawing on Hegel's account of mechanism in his philosophy of spirit, it shows that processes which can count as natural – such as mechanical processes – constitute for Hegel an integral and indispensable part of spiritual activity. Against this background, it is possible to develop a form of Hegelian naturalism which does not lose sight of the essential distinction, even opposition of spirit and nature.     

Rule-Following and Objective Spirit

This paper deals with Wittgenstein’s rule-following paradox, focussing on the infinite rule-regress as featured in Kripke’s Wittgenstein on Rules and Private Language. I argue that one of the most salient and popular proposed solutions (championed by John McDowell), which argues that rule-following is grounded in “custom,” “practice” or “form of life, remains unsatisfactory because part of this proposal is the rejection of further “theory” (commonly attributed to Wittgenstein) which seemingly makes it impossible to substantiate the claim of how customs, practices or forms of life ground rule-following. I argue that this conundrum can be solved by introducing Wilhelm Dilthey’s overlooked notion of objective spirit as the objectivated sediment of historical human communality. This proposal allows us to substantiate Wittgenstein’s hints at the connection between rule-following and customs, practices, and forms of life without introducing “problematic theories.” Combining Wittgenstein’s views with Dilthey’s notion of objective spirit results in a solution that is neither skeptical nor straight, but therapeutic.     

Natürliche Unarten

Today it is widely accepted among philosophers ofanalytical inclination that there are two theoriesabout what endows words with their extensions: thetheory of natural kinds and the so-called Californiansemantics. It is widely agreed that the first issuperior to the second because it can not only explainthe indexicality of the extension of natural kindterms as well as their social character but also avoidGoodman's paradox of projectibility. Natural kindterms can not be corrupted concepts since theirmembers are grouped by objective similarity.It will be shown that there is a third way besidesthe two above-mentioned theories. It shares theadvantages of Natural Kind theory without making useof the problematic concept of objective similarity.Its main feature is not to claim that extensions arethere once and forever but that concepts evolve byusing concepts.     

Mechanistic probability

I describe a realist, ontologically objective interpretation of probability, ??far-flung frequency (FFF) mechanistic probability??. FFF mechanistic probability is defined in terms of facts about the causal structure of devices and certain sets of frequencies in the actual world. Though defined partly in terms of frequencies, FFF mechanistic probability avoids many drawbacks of well-known frequency theories and helps causally explain stable frequencies, which will usually be close to the values of mechanistic probabilities. I also argue that it??s a virtue rather than a failing of FFF mechanistic probability that it does not define single-case chances, and compare some aspects of my interpretation to a recent interpretation proposed by Strevens.     

Optimal classifier feedback improves cost-benefit but not base-rate decision criterion learning in perceptual categorization

Unequal payoffs engender separate reward- and accuracy-maximizing decision criteria; unequal base rates do not. When payoffs are unequal, observers place greater emphasis on accuracy than is optimal. This study compares objective classifier (the objectively correct response) with optimal classifier feedback (the optimal classifier's response) when payoffs or base rates are unequal. It provides a critical test of Maddox and Bohil's (1998) competition between reward and accuracy maximization (COBRA) hypothesis, comparing it with a competition between reward and probability matching (COBRM) and a competition between reward and equal response frequencies (COBRE) hypothesis. The COBRA prediction that optimal classifier feedback leads to better decision criterion leaning relative to objective classifier feedback when payoffs are unequal, but not when base rates are unequal, was supported. Model-based analyses suggested that the weight placed on accuracy was reduced for optimal classifier feedback relative to objective classifier feedback. In addition, delayed feedback affected learning of the reward-maximizing decision criterion.     

The theory of nomic probability

This article sketches a theory of objective probability focusing on nomic probability, which is supposed to be the kind of probability figuring in statistical laws of nature. The theory is based upon a strengthened probability calculus and some epistemological principles that formulate a precise version of the statistical syllogism. It is shown that from this rather minimal basis it is possible to derive theorems comprising (1) a theory of direct inference, and (2) a theory of induction. The theory of induction is not of the familiar Bayesian variety, but consists of a precise version of the traditional Nicod Principle and its statistical analogues.     

The phonological similarity effect in immediate recall: Positions of shared phonemes

Earlier literature proposes two ways phonological similarity could harm immediate recall: (1) It could increase the degradation of the representations of items in memory, or (2) it could decrease the probability that a degraded representation is correctly reconstructed. A multinomial processing tree model for each hypothesis was used to analyze an immediate recall experiment. Both gave a good account of the data, but, of the two, results favor the hypothesis that the effect of phonological similarity is to impair reconstruction of degraded representations. A second issue is whether positions of repeated phonemes in phonologically similar items matter. We found that mere repetition of phonemes produced a phonological similarity effect. Repeated phonemes in the same positions appeared to produce a greater effect. A final finding is that when reading rate was preequated, phonological similarity affected memory span by changing the time taken to recall a list of span length.     

Non-aging fore-periods and simple reaction time

This study deals with the relationship between the momentary objective probability of the delivery of a stimulus and the reaction time in a simple reaction-time task. The hypothesis was that the reaction time is closely related to the objective probability via expectancy i.e., the momentary probability of the delivery of the stimulus as experienced by the subject. This problem was experimentally approached from two directions: (1) by varying the objective probability, in which case the reaction times should change inversely with the objective probability, and (2) by keeping the objective probability constant (by using the Bernoulli process), in which case the reaction times should not change. Eight male subjects were used. The first assumption proved to be correct, whereas the second held only when certain mean inter-stimulus intervals were used.     

Risky decision: Attention and path dependency as a function of response mode

It was previously shown and was here replicated that the amount of money required to induce a subject to exchange one gamble for a second and then the second for a third depends on the second (intermediate) gamble. This path dependency cannot be explained by any of the algebraic models (including SEU), nor can it be explained as a simple attention effect. A model was put forward which explains the effect in terms of differential masking depending on a kind of stimulus—response compatibility. The effect of response mode on path dependency was examined in this study; similarity judgements showed no consistent path dependency nor did difference in rated attractiveness of gambles presented in pairs, but rated attractiveness was different for gambles presented singly. Since it might be that monetary response emphasises the monetary aspects, that is, the winning amount of the gamble, it was thought that a probability response would emphasise the probability of winning. However, when subjects were asked to set the probability of winning $ 12 which would induce them to exchange one gamble for another, not only was no path dependency observed, but the subjects' responses seemed to depend only on the difference in expected value of the gambles. This suggests the possibility of developing response-display modes which would eliminate or at least attenuate the inconsistencies observed in risky decision processes.     

The principle of maximum entropy and a problem in probability kinematics

Sometimes we receive evidence in a form that standard conditioning (or Jeffrey conditioning) cannot accommodate. The principle of maximum entropy (MAXENT) provides a unique solution for the posterior probability distribution based on the intuition that the information gain consistent with assumptions and evidence should be minimal. Opponents of objective methods to determine these probabilities prominently cite van Fraassen’s Judy Benjamin case to undermine the generality of maxent. This article shows that an intuitive approach to Judy Benjamin’s case supports maxent. This is surprising because based on independence assumptions the anticipated result is that it would support the opponents. It also demonstrates that opponents improperly apply independence assumptions to the problem.     

Assortative mating and marital quality in newlyweds: a couple-centered approach

Using a couple-centered approach, the authors examined assortative mating on a broad range of variables in a large (N = 291) sample of newlyweds. Couples showed substantial similarity on attitude-related domains but little on personality-related domains. Similarity was not due to social homogamy or convergence. The authors examined linear and curvilinear effects of spouse similarity on self and observer indicators of marital quality. Results show (a) positive associations between similarity and marital quality for personality-related domains but not for attitude-related domains, (b) that similarity on attachment characteristics were most strongly predictive of satisfaction, (c) robust curvilinear effects for husbands but not for wives, (d) that profile similarity remained a significant predictor of marital quality even when spouses' self-ratings were controlled, and (e) that profile-based similarity indices were better predictors of marital quality than absolute difference scores.