Optimistic update bias holds firm: Three tests of robustness following Shah et al.

A diverse body of research has demonstrated that people update their beliefs to a greater extent when receiving good news compared to bad news. Recently, a paper by Shah et al. claimed that this asymmetry does not exist. Here we carefully examine the experiments and simulations described in Shah et al. and follow their analytic approach on our data sets. After correcting for confounds we identify in the experiments of Shah et al., an optimistic update bias for positive life events is revealed. Contrary to claims made by Shah et al., we observe that participants update their beliefs in a more Bayesian manner after receiving good news than bad. Finally, we show that the parameters Shah et al. pre-selected for simulations are at odds with participants’ data, making these simulations irrelevant to the question asked. Together this report makes a strong case for a true optimistic asymmetry in belief updating.     

On the science of Rorschach research

Wood et al.'s (1999b) article contained several general points that are quite sound. Conducting research with an extreme groups design does produce effect sizes that are larger than those observed in an unselected population. Appropriate control groups are important for any study that wishes to shed light on the characteristics of a targeted experimental group and experimental validity is enhanced when researchers collect data from both groups simultaneously. Diagnostic efficiency statistics--or any summary measures of test validity--should be trusted more when they are drawn from multiple studies conducted by different investigators across numerous settings rather than from a single investigator's work. There should be no question that these points are correct. However, I have pointed out numerous problems with specific aspects of Wood et al.'s (1999b) article. Wood et al. gave improper citations that claimed researchers found or said things that they did not. Wood et al. indicated my data set did not support the incremental validity of the Rorschach over the MMPI-2 when, in fact, my study never reported such an analysis and my data actually reveal that the opposite conclusion is warranted. Wood et al. asserted there was only one proper way to conduct incremental validity analyses even though experts have described how their recommended procedure can lead to significant complications. Wood et al. cited a section of Cohen and Cohen (1983) to bolster their claim that hierarchical and step-wise regression procedures were incompatible and to criticize Burns and Viglione's (1996) regression analysis. However, that section of Cohen and Cohen's text actually contradicted Wood et al.'s argument. Wood et al. tried to convince readers that Burns and Viglione used improper alpha levels and drew improper conclusions from their regression data although Burns and Viglione had followed the research evidence on this topic and the expert recommendations provided in Hosmer and Lemeshow's (1989) classic text. Wood et al. oversimplified issues associated with extreme group research designs and erroneously suggested that diagnostic studies were immune from interpretive confounds that can be associated with this type of design. Wood et al. ignored or dismissed the valid reasons why Burns and Viglione used an extreme groups design, and they never mentioned how Burns and Viglione used a homogeneous sample that actually was likely to find smaller than normal effect sizes. Wood et al. also overlooked the fact that Burns and Viglione identified their results as applying to female nonpatients; they never suggested their findings would characterize those obtained from a clinical sample. Wood et al. criticized composite measures although some of the most important and classic findings in the history of research on personality recommend composite measures as a way to minimize error and maximize validity. Wood et al. also were mistaken about the elements that constitute an optimal composite measure. Wood et al. apparently ignored the factor-analytic evidence that demonstrated how Burns and Viglione created a reasonable composite scale, and Wood et al. similarly ignored the clear evidence that supported the content and criterion related validity of the EMRF. With respect to the HEV, Wood et al. created a z-score formula that used the wrong means and standard deviations. They continued to use this formula despite being informed that it was incorrect. Subsequently, Wood et al. told readers that their faulty z-score formula was "incompatible" with the proper weighted formula and asserted that the two formulas "do not yield identical results" and "do not yield HEV scores that are identical or even very close." These published claims were made even though Wood et al. had seen the results from eight large samples, all of which demonstrated that their wrong formula had correlations greater than .998 with the correct formula. At worst, it seems that Wood et al. (199     

Is Implicit Personality Theory illusory? Armchair criticism versus replicated empirical research

The Tzeng and Tzeng (1982) criticisms of the assumptions underlying the Jackson, Chan, and Stricker (1979) study of Implicit Personality Theory fail to take account of the relevant empirical data. For example, the key contention of Tzeng and Tzeng–that the measures of judged and empirical trait-co-occurrence used by Jackson et al. were not comparable–is contradicted by replicated findings which establish that the two are substantially and consistently related, results for which Tzeng and Tzeng offer no alternative explanation. In short, Tzeng and Tzeng have not demonstrated that their criticisms have any real substance. Hence, none of the Jackson et al. results and conclusions, including those questioning the conditional probability index as a measure of empirical co-occurrence and those supporting the validity of Implicit Personality Theory, are affected or changed.     

Reserve capacity of the elderly in aging sensitive tests of fluid intelligence: a reanalysis via a structural equation modelling approach

In the last decade there has been a growing interest among developmental psychologists to investigate whether the cognitive performance of older adults can be improved by means of training programs. A number of cognitive training studies involving aging sensitive abilities of fluid intelligence have been performed with healthy older adults (Willis et al. 1981; Baltes et al., 1984/1986). In this paper we reanalyse data from Baltes et al. (1986) concerning the ADEPT Induction, ADEPT Figural Relations, Induction Standard and the Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices Tests. In contrast to the above study, where the data analysis was based on a MANOVA approach, usually carried out when experimental data were gathered, this discussion implements an approach to change measurement for which the structural equation of different aspects of change in means as manifested in the moment matrices. The results here confirm these by Baltes et al. (1986), and suggest conclusions concerning change in means over time in the experimental and control groups, which are not implied by their study.     

The validity and appropriateness of methods, analyses, and conclusions in Rind et al. (1998): A rebuttal of victimological critique from Ondersma et al. (2001) and Dallam et al. (2001).

The authors respond to 2 victimological critiques of their 1998 meta-analysis on child sexual abuse (CSA). S. J. Dallam et al. (2001) claimed that B. Rind, P. Tromovitch, and R. Bauserman (1998) committed numerous methodological and statistical errors, and often miscoded and misinterpreted data. The authors show all these claims to be invalid. To the contrary, they demonstrate frequent bias in Dallam et al.'s criticisms. S. J. Ondersma et al. (2001) claimed that Rind et al.'s study is part of a backlash against psychotherapists, that its suggestions regarding CSA definitions were extrascientific, and that the moral standard is needed to understand CSA scientifically. The authors show their suggestions to have been scientific and argue that it is Ondersma et al.'s issue-framing and moral standard that are extrascientific. This reply supports the original methods, analyses, recommendations, and conclusions of Rind et al.     

Opposition logic and neural network models in artificial grammar learning

Following neural network simulations of the two experiments of, argued that the opposition logic advocated by was incapable of distinguishing between single and multiple influences on performance of artificial grammar learning and more generally. We show that their simulations do not support their conclusions. We also provide different neural network simulations that do simulate the essential results of Higham et al. (2000).     

Learning to achieve perfect timesharing: architectural implications of Hazeltine, Teague, and Ivry (2002)

E. Hazeltine, D. Teague, and R. B. Ivry have presented data that have been interpreted as evidence against a central bottleneck. This article describes simulations of their Experiments 1 and 4 in the ACT-R cognitive architecture, which does possess a central bottleneck in production execution. The simulation model is capable of accounting for the emergence of near-perfect timesharing in Experiment 1 and the detailed data on the distribution of response times from Experiment 4. With practice, the central bottleneck in ACT-R will be reduced to a maximum of 50 ms (1 production cycle) and can often be much less, depending on timing of stages and variability in their times. The authors also show, with a mathematical analysis of E. Hazeltine et al.'s Experiment 2, that the expected dual costs for these kinds of highly practiced tasks will be small in many circumstances, often under 10 ms.     

A misleading review of response bias: comment on McGrath, Mitchell, Kim, and Hough (2010)

In the May 2010 issue of Psychological Bulletin, R. E. McGrath, M. Mitchell, B. H. Kim, and L. Hough published an article entitled "Evidence for Response Bias as a Source of Error Variance in Applied Assessment" (pp. 450-470). They argued that response bias indicators used in a variety of settings typically have insufficient data to support such use in everyday clinical practice. Furthermore, they claimed that despite 100 years of research into the use of response bias indicators, "a sufficient justification for [their] use… in applied settings remains elusive" (p. 450). We disagree with McGrath et al.'s conclusions. In fact, we assert that the relevant and voluminous literature that has addressed the issues of response bias substantiates validity of these indicators. In addition, we believe that response bias measures should be used in clinical and research settings on a regular basis. Finally, the empirical evidence for the use of response bias measures is strongest in clinical neuropsychology. We argue that McGrath et al.'s erroneous perspective on response bias measures is a result of 3 errors in their research methodology: (a) inclusion criteria for relevant studies that are too narrow; (b) errors in interpreting results of the empirical research they did include; (c) evidence of a confirmatory bias in selectively citing the literature, as evidence of moderation appears to have been overlooked. Finally, their acknowledging experts in the field who might have highlighted these errors prior to publication may have prevented critiques during the review process.     

Accessing situation model information: memory-based processing versus here-and-now accounts

The focus of the present research was to compare the memory-based processing and here-and-now accounts of situation model updating during reading. The authors conducted two experiments as a follow-up on work by R. A. Zwaan and C. J. Madden (2004), who disputed the conclusions of E. J. O'Brien, M. L. Rizzella, J. E. Albrecht, and J. G. Halleran (1998). The latter researchers found support for the memory-based processing view by showing that readers experienced reading difficulty on a sentence that was consistent with an updated model of the story's protagonist but was inconsistent with initially stated information about the protagonist. In contrast, Zwaan and Madden eliminated what they argued were confounds in the items used by O'Brien et al. and found support for the here-and-now view. In the present article, data from 2 experiments seem to eliminate weaknesses inherent in both previous authors' work. Although the present results are consistent with the here-and-now account, they do not completely discredit the memory-based processing view.     

Bare fingers,but no obvious influence of “prickly” Velcro! In the absence of parents’ encouragement,it is not clear that “sticky mittens” provide an advantage to the process of learning to reach

In their critique of our mittens study, Needham et al. (2015. Infant Behavior and Development) describe our findings as “surprising.” Further; they suggest that babies in our “sticky mittens” condition may have been discouraged from reaching because, in our study, infants may have touched “prickly” Velcro with their bare fingers. In this response, we present data analyses that do not support the interpretation that finger contact with our Velcroed toy surfaces was associated with poor reaching performance in our “sticky” mittens group. We also clarify that our toys were mainly covered with “non-prickly” Velcro. To explain discrepancies between studies, we restate the original intent of our study and reasons for our methodological modifications. We point to confounds and lack of critical control conditions in the Needham et al. studies, which prevent the making of firm inferences about the effectiveness of the “sticky mittens experience” on the learning to reach process. We also present additional analyses on our “sticky” mittens group showing that the increasing rate of finger touch on the toy leads to greater reaching performance while the rate of toy sticking to the mittens does not. We discuss the importance of sensory-motor experience on the development of learning to reach in infancy and conclude that our results are not surprising.     

The effects of child sexual abuse: Comment on Rind, Tromovitch, and Bauserman (1998).

B. Rind, P. Tromovitch, and R. Bauserman (1998) examined the long-term effects of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) by meta-analyzing studies of college students. The authors reported that effects "were neither pervasive nor typically intense" and that "men reacted much less negatively than women" (p. 22) and recommended value-neutral reconceptualization of the CSA construct. The current analysis revealed numerous problems in that study that minimized CSA-adjustment relations, including use of a healthy sample, an inclusive definition of CSA, failure to correct for statistical attenuation, and misreporting of original data. Rind et al.'s study's main conclusions were not supported by the original data. As such, attempts to use their study to argue that an individual has not been harmed by sexual abuse constitute a serious misapplication of its findings.     

Subjective responses to alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages by alcoholic respondents

Changes in the subjective response to alcohol following electrical aversive conditioning have been studied through the use of the semantic differential (Costello, 1974; Costello et al., 1974a, 1974b; Hallam et al., 1972; Miller et al., 1974; Miller et al. 1973). As pointed out by the Costello group and by Kaplan (1972) there are several problems with this technique. The midpoint of the 7-point scale may be psychologically impossible to define if the subject does not perceive the adjectives pairs as mutually antagonistic. It is frequently assumed that the adjective pairs are bipolar, based on the original work of Osgood et al. (1957). Recent evidence (Costello, 1974; Costello et al., 1974a, 1974b) has demonstrated that the scales used by Hallam et al. (1972) were in fact, not bipolar.The stimuli used by Costello and coworkers were an alcoholic and a non-alcoholic slide, following the work of Hallam et al. (1972). Recent studies (Miller et al., 1974; Miller et al., 1973; Wilson, 1973) have utilized rating the taste of real alcohol, as opposed to slides, in order to measure the effectiveness of behavioral therapies in alcoholism. The subject is asked to taste several beverages, some of which have alcohol, and rate the taste of each drink on a set of semantic differential adjective pairs. Miller et al. (1974), found that while the actual amount of pre-therapy alcoholic beverage consumed predicted which subjects did better at 6 months outcome, the semantic differential ratings did not. One reason might have been that the scales were not bipolar and thus the semantic measurement was highly unreliable.The purpose of the present study was to replicate the Costello studies, using real beverages, alcoholic and non-alcoholic as the stimuli.     

Maternal employment and child cognitive outcomes: the importance of analytic approach

J. Brooks-Gunn, W. J. Han, and J. Waldfogel (2002) and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Early Child Care Research Network (ECCRN; 2000b) came to different conclusions about the effects of maternal employment--although they were addressing similar questions using the same data set. Brooks-Gunn et al. concluded that maternal employment in infancy has a negative effect on children's cognitive abilities at age 3, whereas the ECCRN found that early nonmaternal care is not related to children's cognitive abilities in their first 3 years. The authors account for this difference by comparing 2 approaches to data analysis: a top-down testing of continuous variables (the approach used by the ECCRN, 2000b) and an a priori comparison approach that involves pairwise testing of specific dichotomous contrasts (the approach used by Brooks-Gunn et al., 2002). This comparison illustrates the critical importance of analytic approach. It also suggests that Brooks-Gunn et al.'s conclusion from this data set is overstated and should not be used on its own as the basis for practical or policy decisions.     

汉语“主观词”的表征及其加工

本文提出了"主观词"的概念,并探讨主观词存在的心理现实性以及主观词的加工特征。包括3项研究:研究1考察了普通大学生对双字结构的词汇辨别情况,发现他们倾向于将短语和词主观判断为词,即他们按照个体对词的独特表征认知词,证实了主观词存在的心理现实性。研究2和研究3分别采用"词优效应"研究中使用的强迫选择作业和词汇判断任务考察主观词加工的特征。研究2发现,读者加工词和主观词(语法上是短语但主观评定为词)的正确率和反应时没有差异,但与非词条件相比,表现为正确率高,反应时短;研究3的反应时结果同研究2,而3种条件的正确率均在90%以上且不存在显著差异。在本研究条件下,得出以下结论:(1)主观词的存在具有心理现实性:读者对汉语词语的表征是主观的,不一定符合词的语法学规定;(2)在强迫选择作业下,与非词相比,表现出词优效应,主观词作为整体被识别。(3)在词汇判断任务下,主观词与词相同,与非词相比,表现出加工优势。     

Controlling for stimulus dominance effects in the Fused Dichotic Words Test when predicting speech lateralization in children

A log-linear analysis (Grimshaw et al., 1994) of Fused Dichotic Words Test data was examined in a sample of 28 children with epilepsy who had undergone the intracarotid amobarbital procedure to determine the nature of speech representation. The analysis yields a measure of ear dominance (lambda*) that controls for stimulus dominance confounds. Most patients with unilateral speech obtained statistically significant ear advantages, whereas most with bilateral speech displayed no significant ear advantage. Despite controlling for stimulus dominance confounds, some of the scores from patients with left-hemisphere speech overlapped with those from patients with bilateral speech representation.     

Beyond the mental number line: A neural network model of number–space interactions

It is commonly assumed that there is an interaction between the representations of number and space (e.g., Dehaene et al., 1993, Walsh, 2003), typically ascribed to a mental number line. The exact nature of this interaction has remained elusive, however. Here we propose that spatial aspects are not inherent to number representations, but that instead spatial and numerical representations are separate. However, cultural factors establish ties between them. By extending earlier models (Gevers et al., 2006, Verguts et al., 2005) based on this hypothesis, the authors present computer simulations showing that a model incorporating this idea can account for data from a series of studies. These results suggest that number–space interactions are emergent properties resulting from the interaction between different brain areas.     

Face Naming in Dementia: A Reply to Hodges and Greene (1998)

A case study by Brennen, David, Fluchaire, and Pellat (1996) reported the case of a patient who could occasionally name celebrities with very low concurrent levels of semantic access, which is difficult to reconcile with current models of face identification. Hodges and Greene (1998) attribute Brennen et al.'s case study to artifactual explanations and provide new data, which, they claim, is evidence against the "theory of naming without semantics". This reply demonstrates that Hodges and Greene's arguments are unconvincing and that aspects of Hodges and Greene's data in fact provide support for Brennen et al.'s conclusions. It is also argued that in cases of dementia direct naming has been reported for other stimuli domains as well.     

Statistical constraints on the use of single cases in neuropsychological research

In a recent study by Miceli, Silveri, Romani, and Caramazza (Brain and Language, 1989, 36, 447-492), free speech records for 20 unselected Italian-speaking agrammatic patients were analyzed along a variety of linguistic parameters, with particular emphasis on substitution and omission errors within traditional "part of speech" categories. The authors draw two strong conclusions: (1) the variability observed in this sample is too great to justify grouping these patients (or any coherent subset of the patients) into the "same" clinical category; (2) the extensive variability displayed by these patients reflects meaningful and very specific patterns of dissociation that would be lost if patients were grouped together in a common category called "aggrammatism." In a reanalysis of the Miceli et al. data, we conclude that the evidence does not justify either of these conclusions. First, we provide a set of mathematical simulations demonstrating that the dissociations claimed by Miceli et al. could have occurred entirely by chance, if samples of speech were drawn randomly from a "universe of discourse" characterized by error rates similar to those displayed by patients in this study. This randomization method has considerable generality, and could prove useful to other investigators interested in determining the number and type of dissociations that are likely to occur by chance in individual and/or group studies. Second, we demonstrate that there are many confounding factors that could account for the variability observed by Miceli et al., including differences in neurological status, education, and the strategies that patients elect to deal with their limitations.     

Features versus redundancy: comments on Massaro, Venezky, and Taylor's "Orthographic regularity, positional frequency, and visual processing of letter strings"

Massaro, Venezky, and Taylor (1979) found only a modest effect of familiarity on letter search, apparently because they pitted pseudowords (rather than real words) against nonwords and used lowercase rather than uppercase letters. Precuing the target letter seemed to reduce the familiarity effect they found yet further, but this conclusion is clouded by the fact that reaction time data were compared with accuracy data. Because similarity between target and nontarget letters tended to have more of an effect when familiarity had less of an effect. Massaro et al. proposed a successive model, with features being detected in the first stage and orthographic structure being used in a second stage. However, a concurrent model, with a self-terminating race between lower and higher level processes, can account for the data just as well. Data from Massaro et al. and from Krueger decisively demonstrate that there is a familiarity effect based on sequential redundancy over and above any effect based on spatial redundancy (Mason 1975). The Massaro et al. data also indicate that the relative familiarity effect is constant across various age groups (Krueger, Keen & Rublevich, 1974).     

Detecting small taxa using simulated comparison data: A reanalysis of Beach, Amir, and Bau's (2005) data

On the basis of taxometric analyses of data sets that they created to pose interpretive challenges, S. R. H. Beach, N. Amir, and J. J. Bau (2005) cautioned that using comparison data simulated by J. Ruscio's programs can lead to inaccurate conclusions. Careful examination of S. R. H. Beach et al.'s methods and results plus reanalysis of their data fails to substantiate this concern: Using comparison data identified the taxonic structure of S. R. H. Beach et al.'s data sets, even when the taxon base rate was very low. The authors show that J. Ruscio's simulation programs generate comparison data appropriately and that analyzing these data provides a useful interpretive aid. Additionally, the authors discuss and illustrate the effective use of the inchworm consistency test to disambiguate taxometric results for small taxa and dimensional constructs with positively skewed indicators.