不确定性容忍度对风险偏好的影响及其情景依赖性

研究以经营店面为背景设计决策材料,采用2(不确定性容忍度:高/低)×2(损益背景:损失/获益)×2(选项描述框架:积极/消极)×3(损益概率:高/中/低)混合实验设计,探讨不同任务情景下个体不确定性容忍度对风险偏好的影响。结果发现,不确定性容忍度主效应显著,高容忍度者比低容忍度者更冒险。不确定性容忍度与损益背景交互作用显著：在损失背景下,高容忍度者比低容忍度者更冒险,在获益背景下无此效应。不确定性容忍度与选项描述框架交互作用显著：在积极框架下,高容忍度者比低容忍度者更冒险,在消极框架下无此效应。这表明,不确定性容忍度对风险偏好产生影响,但这种影响会受到损益背景和选项描述框架的调节,具有情景依赖性。     

不确定性容忍度、损益概率及延迟风险对延迟选择的影响

研究通过两个实验考查了不确定性容忍度及相关变量对延迟选择的影响,其中实验1采用2（不确定性容忍度：高/低）×2（概率水平：高/中）被试间实验设计;研究2将实验任务设定在有延迟风险情景下中等概率水平,采用单因素（不确定性容忍度：高/低）被试间实验设计.实验1结果表明：不确定性容忍度与概率水平存在交互作用：中等概率时,低容忍度个体比高容忍度个体更偏好延迟选择,高概率时,两者的延迟选择无显著差异,都偏好于选择决策.实验2结果表明：在有延迟风险中等概率时,高、低容忍度个体的决策偏好无显著差异,都偏好选择决策.结论：不确定性容忍度对延迟选择存在影响且受概率水平和延迟风险的调节.     

金钱崇拜对个体跨期决策偏好的影响

采用经典跨期选择任务范式,以个体的金钱喜好差异为切入点,通过问卷调查和行为实验考察金钱崇拜对个体跨期决策偏好的影响。结果发现:(1)个体的金钱崇拜水平与其跨期折扣倾向显著负相关;(2)无论跨期决策任务的难易和兑现时间的长短,高金钱崇拜者更倾向于选择较大的延迟奖赏,而低金钱崇拜者更倾向于选择较小的即时奖赏;(3)高、低金钱崇拜者的跨期决策反应时没有明显的差异,但二者的反应时都明显地受到任务难度的影响,即在容易条件下的反应速度显著快些。结果表明,个体的金钱崇拜水平在跨期决策过程中发挥着重要的作用,致使高金钱崇拜者更愿意等待延迟大奖赏的到来。     

未来情景想象对海洛因戒断者跨期决策的影响

大量研究发现海洛因成瘾者在跨期决策中更加偏好即时奖赏,对延迟奖赏具有更高的延迟折扣率。本研究采用延迟折扣任务探讨了未来情景想象对海洛因戒断者跨期决策的影响。实验1结果发现,前测中海洛因戒断组在金钱延迟折扣任务中的曲线下面积(the areas under the curve, AUC)显著小于对照组,而未来情景想象后两组被试的AUC值没有显著差异。而且海洛因戒断组在两种条件的AUC差值显著大于对照组。实验2结果发现,海洛因戒断组在前测的跨类别延迟折扣任务中的AUC值显著小于其未来情景想象后的AUC值。鉴于未来情景想象可以改善海洛因戒断者的跨期决策表现,今后可采用未来情景想象展开针对海洛因成瘾者跨期决策的靶向干预,降低海洛因成瘾者复吸的风险。     

敬畏对跨期选择的影响：时间洞察力和时距敏感度的作用

本研究考察了情绪(敬畏、愉悦和中性)对跨期选择的影响机制,以及时距敏感度和时间洞察力在其中的作用。结果显示：(1)相比中性,敬畏情绪下个体的折扣率更大;(2)相比中性,敬畏情绪下折扣率降幅更大;(3)对于未来取向者,敬畏情绪下折扣率比中性条件下更大;(4)对于现在取向者,敬畏情绪下折扣率降幅比中性条件下更大。结果表明,敬畏情绪通过未来时距的敏感度影响跨期选择偏好,使个体更加偏好延迟奖赏,同时,个体的时间取向在其中起调节作用。     

时间洞察力对跨期选择偏好的预测

利用津巴多时间洞察力问卷,采用跨期选择经典范式,考察“现在享乐型”和“未来定向型”两类时间洞察力个体在跨期选择上的偏好,从人格特质角度来探究跨期选择的认知机制。结果发现：(1)现在享乐定向组的延迟折扣率显著高于未来定向组;(2)未来定向组在时间洞察力量表“未来维度”得分与延迟折扣率显著负相关。这说明时间洞察力对个体延迟折扣率具有预测作用,支持了跨期选择的时间感知基础模型。     

7～11岁儿童图形辨认的发展研究

本研究选取 7岁、9岁、1 1岁的 81名儿童作为被试 ,采用图形辨认任务 ,探查图形熟悉度、感觉道对小学儿童图形认知的影响 ,结果表明 :感觉通道主效应不显著。年龄主效应显著 ,1 1岁组得分显著高于 9岁组和 7岁组 ,9岁组成绩好于 7岁组 ,差异达到边沿显著。熟悉度主效应显著 ,熟悉材料的辨认成绩显著好于不熟悉成绩。年龄×图形熟悉度交互作用显著 ,年龄×感觉道交互作用不显著 ,感觉道×熟悉度主效应不显著 ,年龄×图形熟悉度×感觉道交互作用显著 ,在触觉辨认条件下 ,年龄×图形熟悉度交互作用显著 ,在视觉辨认条件下 ,年龄×图形熟悉度交互作用不显著     

创造性任务情境下社会惰化影响因素研究

研究一,采用单因素组间设计(合作组、名义组、个人组)检验创造性任务情境下是否存在社会惰化效应,结果显示:合作组状态下个体努力水平显著低于名义组,与个人组差异不显著;研究二,采用三因素组间设计(4×2×3)探讨创造性任务情境下社会惰化影响因素,结果显示:目标难度、绩效评估变量主效应显著且存在交互作用,而中期评估变量主效应不显著。研究结果提示:高难度目标、评估个体对群体的贡献可减弱创造性任务情境下的社会惰化效应。     

负面评价恐惧对社交焦虑的影响:基于社交焦虑的认知行为模型

在社交焦虑认知行为模型的理论视角下，本研究拟探讨负面评价恐惧、不确定性容忍度和依赖型自我构念对社交焦虑的影响及其作用机制。以424名大学生为被试，使用问卷调查法的研究结果表明：（1）负面评价恐惧对社交焦虑有显著预测作用，且不确定性容忍度在这一关系中的中介作用显著；（2）不确定性容忍度的间接效应受到依赖型自我构念的调节。具体而言，该中介效应在高依赖型自我构念群体中更为显著。本研究结果不仅有助于揭示负面评价恐惧对社交焦虑的影响及其作用机制，而且对社交焦虑的预防和干预也有一定的理论和实践指导价值。     

成败反馈对大学生核心自我评价的影响：任务重要性、外向性的调节作用

该研究以247名大学生为被试,采用2（反馈类型：成功、失败）×2（任务重要性：重要任务、不重要任务）×2（外向性：内向、外向）组间设计探讨成败反馈对大学生核心自我评价的影响,以及任务重要性和外向性在其中的调节作用。结果表明：（1）反馈类型、任务重要性和外向性对核心自我评价变化的主效应及三者的交互作用效应均显著。（2）成败反馈与任务重要性对核心自我评价变化存在显著的交互作用;简单效应分析表明,在失败反馈条件下,执行重要任务被试核心自我评价的下降幅度显著大于执行不重要任务被试核心自我评价的下降幅度。（3）成败反馈与外向性对核心自我评价变化存在显著的交互作用;简单效应分析显示,在失败反馈条件下,外向被试核心自我评价的下降幅度显著小于内向被试。（4）在失败反馈条件下,任务重要性和外向性对核心自我评价的变化存在交互作用。     

Intertemporal Similarity: Discounting as a Last Resort

Standard models of intertemporal choice assume that individuals discount future payoffs by integrating reward amounts and time delays to generate a discounted value. Alternative models propose that, rather than integrate across them, individuals compare within attributes (amounts and delays) to determine if differences in one attribute outweigh differences in another attribute. For instance, the similarity model 1) compares the two reward amounts to determine whether they are similar, 2) compares the similarity of the two time delays, and then 3) makes a decision based on these similarity judgments. Here, I tested discounting models against attribute‐based models that use similarity judgments to make choices. I collected intertemporal choices and similarity judgments for the reward amounts and time delays from participants in three experiments. All experiments tested the ability of discounting and similarity models to predict intertemporal choices. Model generalization analyses showed that the best predicting models started with similarity judgments and then, if similarity failed to make a prediction, resorted to discounting models. Similarity judgments also matched intertemporal choice data demonstrating both the magnitude and sign effects, thereby accounting for behavioral data that contradict many discounting models. These results highlight the possibility that attribute‐based models such as the similarity models provide alternatives to discounting that may offer insights into the process of making intertemporal choices. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Within-subject comparison of real and hypothetical money rewards in delay discounting

A within-subject design, using human participants, compared delay discounting functions for real and hypothetical money rewards. Both real and hypothetical rewards were studied across a range that included $10 to $250. For 5 of the 6 participants, no systematic difference in discount rate was observed in response to real and hypothetical choices, suggesting that hypothetical rewards may often serve as a valid proxy for real rewards in delay discounting research. By measuring discounting at an unprecedented range of real rewards, this study has also systematically replicated the robust finding in human delay discounting research that discount rates decrease with increasing magnitude of reward. A hyperbolic decay model described the data better than an exponential model.     

Heaven can wait. How religion modulates temporal discounting

Evidence suggests that religious systems have specific effects on attentional and action control processes. The present study investigated whether religions also modulate choices that involve higher-order knowledge and the delay of gratification in particular. We tested Dutch Calvinists, Italian Catholics, and Atheists from both countries/cultures using an intertemporal choice task where participants could choose between a small immediate and a larger delayed monetary reward. Based on the Calvinist theory of predestination and the Catholic concept of a cycle of sin–confession–expiation, we predicted a reduced delay tolerance, i.e., higher discount rate, for Italian Catholics than for Dutch Calvinists, and intermediate rates for the two atheist groups. Analyses of discount rates support our hypotheses. We also found a magnitude effect on temporal discounting and faster responses for large than for small rewards across religions and countries/cultures. We conclude that temporal discounting is specifically modulated by religious upbringing rather than by generic cultural differences.     

Social discounting and delay discounting

Social discounting was measured as the amount of money a participant was willing to forgo to give a fixed amount (usually $75) to another person. In the first experiment, amount forgone was a hyperbolic function of the social distance between the giver and receiver. In the second experiment, degree of social discounting was an increasing function of reward magnitude whereas degree of delay discounting was a decreasing function of reward magnitude. In the third experiment, the shape of the function relating delayed rewards to equally valued immediate rewards for another person was predicted from individual delay and social discount functions. All in all, the studies show that the social discount function, like delay and probability discount functions, is hyperbolic in form. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delay, Probability, and Social Discounting in A Public Goods Game

A human social discount function measures the value to a person of a reward to another person at a given social distance. Just as delay discounting is a hyperbolic function of delay, and probability discounting is a hyperbolic function of odds-against, social discounting is a hyperbolic function of social distance. Experiment 1 obtained individual social, delay, and probability discount functions for a hypothetical $75 reward; participants also indicated how much of an initial $100 endowment they would contribute to a common investment in a public good. Steepness of discounting correlated, across participants, among all three discount dimensions. However, only social and probability discounting were correlated with the public-good contribution; high public-good contributors were more altruistic and also less risk averse than low contributors. Experiment 2 obtained social discount functions with hypothetical $75 rewards and delay discount functions with hypothetical $1,000 rewards, as well as public-good contributions. The results replicated those of Experiment 1; steepness of the two forms of discounting correlated with each other across participants but only social discounting correlated with the public-good contribution. Most participants in Experiment 2 predicted that the average contribution would be lower than their own contribution.     

风险对两类跨期选择的影响：一项ERP研究

该研究利用ERP技术,采用伴随风险的跨期选择任务比较了两类跨期选择（立即vs.延迟、延迟vs.延迟）,并探究了风险（零风险、低风险、高风险）对两者跨期选择影响的神经动力学机制。ERP结果显示,对于立即vs.延迟和延迟vs.延迟,在N2和N400上前者大于后者,在LPC上后者大于前者;风险对两者在时程上的影响趋于一致。因此,其加工可能是先对奖赏在风险维度上进行折扣,再与延迟时间进行整合形成奖赏预期,而后做出选择。     

Changes in intertemporal choices in deviant behaviors

Delay discounting is the process of devaluing results that happen in the future. We present a comprehensive literature review of changes on intertemporal choices in deviant behaviors, namely in (a) substance-related and addictive disorders, (b) disruptive, impulse-control, and conduct disorders, and (c) eating disorders. We also present studies focused on differences in demographic characteristics of the populations by gender, age, and education/social class. Delay discounting is presented as a process of studying intertemporal choices, resulting from decades of empirical research. Studies indicate that this process may provide explanation as to why individuals will sometimes choose a smaller reward, available sooner, instead of a larger reward available later. When studying populations with the above-mentioned problems, they tend to exhibit more pronounced discounting functions than control groups. The association between discounting and gender is not clear. The relationship between delay discounting and age is relatively clear, where older individuals discount less markedly than younger individuals. Studies suggest that shallower discounting gradients are associated with higher levels of intelligence and academic success. We emphasize the need for more empirical research on delay discounting, especially in regard to deviant behavior that may be associated with impulse-control disorders.     

The strategies in past temporal discounting

对过去事件的加工涉及到对现在信息的加工,过去获得的价值能够为现在的生活带来的收益可能对过去事件的价值估计具有影响。本研究探讨了过去事件对现在生活的影响在过去时间贴现中的作用。采用延迟时间贴现范式任务,选取2周到50年共10个过去时间长度,要求被试在现在获得的奖金和过去获得的奖金之间进行偏好选择,并且完成对过去时间贴现决策策略的问题回答。采用曲线下的单位面积UAUr(t1,t1) 为过去时间贴现率,发现过去时间贴现率在过去2周和过去1个月之间[Z = 2.662,p = .008]、过去1年和过去3年之间[Z = 2.587, p = .010] 差异显著。对决策策略的回答进行内容分析(频次统计信度为0.875),发现过去事件能够为现在生活带来的收益影响了被试对过去事件的价值估计和偏好选择。从现在起到过去2周内,被试看重近的过去获得的奖金对现在的生活的帮助,偏好选择过去获得的奖金;在较远的过去,从过去2周起到过去1年内,奖金数量和获得奖金的时间之间的比例影响了被试的偏好选择;从过去1年起到过去50年内,远的过去获得的奖金对现在生活的影响微乎其微,被试偏好现在获得的奖金。本研究的结果支持了过去时间贴现和未来时间贴现具有不同的心理加工机制,并且有助于进一步了解过去时间的差别感受性的变化规律。     

Introduction to the special issue on comparative cognition

Prior research has shown that nonhumans show an extreme preference for variable‐ over fixed‐delays to reinforcement. This well‐established preference for variability occurs because a reinforcer's strength or “value” decreases according to a curvilinear function as its delay increases. The purpose of the present experiments was to investigate whether this preference for variability occurs with human participants making hypothetical choices. In three experiments, participants recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk made choices between variable and fixed monetary rewards. In a variable‐delay procedure, participants repeatedly chose between a reward delivered either immediately or after a delay (with equal probability) and a reward after a fixed delay (Experiments 1 and 2). In a double‐reward procedure, participants made choices between an alternative consisting of two rewards, one delivered immediately and one after a delay, and a second alternative consisting of a single reward delivered after a delay (Experiments 1 and 3). Finally, all participants completed a standard delay‐discounting task. Although we observed both curvilinear discounting and magnitude effects in the standard discounting task, we found no consistent evidence of a preference for variability—as predicted by two prominent models of curvilinear discounting (i.e., a simple hyperbola and a hyperboloid)—in our variable‐delay and double‐reward procedures. This failure to observe a preference for variability may be attributed to the hypothetical, rule‐governed nature of choices in the present study. In such contexts, participants may adopt relatively simple strategies for making more complex choices.     

Feelings of dread and intertemporal choice

It frequently has been observed that people discount future rewards relative to present rewards. However, the literature on intertemporal choices involving emotional upsets and losses is fraught with inconsistencies, with some studies finding similar discounting of gains and losses, and others reporting that participants elect to undergo negative experiences sooner rather than later. To help resolve these contradictions, time preferences for different types of aversive experiences (social rejection, embarrassment, pain, monetary and property loss) were examined in five studies. Most participants preferred to postpone monetary and property losses, but intertemporal choices for other unpleasant experiences showed highly variable responses, with some participants deferring them as long as possible, and many electing to experience them immediately. Time preferences for these negative experiences were correlated, but were independent of time preference for rewards. It is argued (following Loewenstein, 1987 ) that anticipation of dread plays a key role in many people's choices about timing of aversive experiences. This interpretation was supported by choices about when to learn of a very unpleasant event whose timing was fixed (Study 3), and by a novel preference reversal (Study 4). Study 5 examined how actual and hypothetical experiences of dread unfolded over time; the results were consistent with a dread‐based interpretation of choices in the preceding studies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.