A multinomial model of event-based prospective memory

Prospective memory is remembering to perform an action in the future. The authors introduce the 1st formal model of event-based prospective memory, namely, a multinomial model that includes 2 separate parameters related to prospective memory processes. The 1st measures preparatory attentional processes, and the 2nd measures retrospective memory processes. The model was validated in 4 experiments. Manipulations of instructions to place importance on either the prospective memory task or the background task (Experiments 1 and 2) and manipulations of distinctiveness of prospective memory targets (Experiment 2) had expected effects on model parameters, as did a manipulation of the difficulty of prospective memory target encoding (Experiments 3 and 4). An alternative model was also evaluated.     

Behavioral shifts after a fatal rapid transit accident: A multinomial logit model

The Washington, DC Metrorail collision in 2009 presents a rare opportunity to study rapid transit passengers’ responses to a highly publicized rail incident entailing injuries and fatalities. To investigate behavioral responses to the accident, particularly mode shifts, we conducted a web-based survey of approximately 300 commuters traveling on Metrorail after the accident who had used Metrorail in the 6 months prior to the collision. The most common response to the accident was avoidance of the first and last train cars. Some respondents substituted some Metrorail trips with other modes or took fewer Metrorail trips. To investigate factors influencing these behavioral responses, we employ multinomial logit models to explore the statistical association between respondent and travel characteristics and the choice among the options of (1) making no changes, (2) avoiding certain seating locations, (3) changing modes of transportation, and (4) changing both seating locations and modes of transportation. Results suggest that travel inertia, specifically mode inertia, exists, in that respondents generally prefer not to make mode or travel choice changes. However, some mode characteristics, such as cost differences and frequent delays have a statistically significant association with mode switching. Gender and the presence of children in the household correlate with the option selected.     

Assessing the validity of multinomial models using extraneous variables: an application to prospective memory

The class of multinomial processing tree (MPT) models has been used extensively in cognitive psychology to model latent cognitive processes. Critical for the usefulness of a MPT model is its psychological validity. Generally, the validity of a MPT model is demonstrated by showing that its parameters are selectively and predictably affected by theoretically meaningful experimental manipulations. Another approach is to test the convergent validity of the model parameters and other extraneous measures intended to measure the same cognitive processes. Here, we advance the concept of construct validity (Cronbach & Meehl, 1955 ) as a criterion for model validity in MPT modelling and show how this approach can be fruitfully utilized using the example of a MPT model of event-based prospective memory. For that purpose, we investigated the convergent validity of the model parameters and established extraneous measures of prospective memory processes over a range of experimental settings, and we found a lack of convergent validity between the two indices. On a conceptual level, these results illustrate the importance of testing convergent validity. Additionally, they have implications for prospective memory research, because they demonstrate that the MPT model of event-based prospective memory is not able to differentiate between different processes contributing to prospective memory performance.     

The multinomial model of prospective memory: validity of ongoing-task parameters

The objective of this research was to provide additional experimental validation of the multinomial processing tree (MPT) model of event-based prospective memory (Smith & Bayen, 2004). In particular, the parameters that measure trial-type detection in the ongoing task were examined. In three experiments with different response instructions, event-based prospective memory tasks were embedded in ongoing color-matching tasks. The results support the validity of the MPT model, that is, manipulations of ongoing-task difficulty affected the ongoing-task parameters of the MPT model, while leaving the estimates for the prospective and the retrospective components of prospective memory unaffected.     

Assessing the validity of multinomial models using extraneous variables: An application to prospective memory

The class of multinomial processing tree (MPT) models has been used extensively in cognitive psychology to model latent cognitive processes. Critical for the usefulness of a MPT model is its psychological validity. Generally, the validity of a MPT model is demonstrated by showing that its parameters are selectively and predictably affected by theoretically meaningful experimental manipulations. Another approach is to test the convergent validity of the model parameters and other extraneous measures intended to measure the same cognitive processes. Here, we advance the concept of construct validity (Cronbach & Meehl, 1955 Cronbach, L. J. and Meehl, P. E. 1955. Construct validity in psychological tests. Psychological Bulletin, 52: 281–302. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) as a criterion for model validity in MPT modelling and show how this approach can be fruitfully utilized using the example of a MPT model of event-based prospective memory. For that purpose, we investigated the convergent validity of the model parameters and established extraneous measures of prospective memory processes over a range of experimental settings, and we found a lack of convergent validity between the two indices. On a conceptual level, these results illustrate the importance of testing convergent validity. Additionally, they have implications for prospective memory research, because they demonstrate that the MPT model of event-based prospective memory is not able to differentiate between different processes contributing to prospective memory performance.     

Experiencing activation: energetic arousal and tense arousal are not mixtures of valence and activation

R. E. Thayer (1989) proposed 2 types of activation: energetic arousal (awake-tired) and tense arousal (tense-calm). This view has been challenged by claims that energetic arousal and tense arousal are mixtures of valence and a single activation dimension. The authors present a direct test of this hypothesis by computing the correlation between the residuals of energetic arousal and tense arousal after removing the shared variance with valence. Whereas the valence activation hypothesis predicts a strong positive correlation between the 2 residuals, the authors found that it was not significantly different from 0. This finding reaffirms the view of energetic arousal and tense arousal as 2 distinct types of activation.     

Conceptualizations of valence and instrumentality: A fourfold model

Within the framework of valence-instrumentality (VI) theory, a fourfold model is developed to predict the contribution which is made by one outcome of an alternative to the valence of that alternative. The proposed model uses four subjective conditional probabilities which are based on the presence and absence of an alternative, and on the occurrence and nonoccurrence of an outcome. Valence is defined as the difference between the attractiveness values of the occurrence of an alternative (or an outcome) and the nonoccurrence of an alternative (or an outcome). Also, differences between subjective probabilities replace instrumentalities. Alternative valence-instrumentality formulations are analyzed in relation to the proposed fourfold model. The proposed model can be understood as a consistent application of Vroom's model (1964, Work and motivation, New York: Wiley), while other models are judged to be relatively deficient. The fourfold model, in combination with a matrix formulation of expectancy concepts, addresses a number of criticisms of VI theory and makes possible a test of the theory within the limits of its own assumptions.     

Task performance and magnitude of goal valence

J. W. Brehm and his associates (J. W. Brehm, R. A. Wright, S. Solomon, L. Silka, & J. Greenberg, 1983, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19, 21–48) recently argued that the magnitude of goal valence (the attractiveness or unattractiveness of a potential outcome) varies directly with motivational arousal level. Motivational arousal, in turn, is thought to be a function of the perceived difficulty of goal attainment. This formulation was tested in the present study by examining the relationship between goal attractiveness ratings and performance on an anagram task. According to the Yerkes-Dodson law (R. M. Yerkes & J. D. Dodson, 1908, Journal of Comparative Neurological Psychology, 18, 459–482), the relationship between motivational arousal and performance should be curvilinear; optimal performance is usually observed for moderate levels of motivation relative to either low or very high motivation levels. Consistent with the Brehm et al. hypothesis, optimum performance in the present study was observed for subjects who reported moderate levels of goal attractiveness relative to subjects who reported either low or high levels of goal attractiveness. Anticipatory ratings of the difficulty of the anagrams were also congruent with the Brehm et al. model. These findings converge with data from other studies supporting the utility of goal attractiveness as an index of motivational arousal and provide an additional dimension of support for the model proposed by Brehm et al.     

Beyond valence: Toward a model of emotion-specific influences on judgement and choice

Most theories of affective influences on judgement and choice take a valence-based approach, contrasting the effects of positive versus negative feeling states. These approaches have not specified if and when distinct emotions of the same valence have different effects on judgement. In this article, we propose a model of emotion-specific influences on judgement and choice. We posit that each emotion is defined by a tendency to perceive new events and objects in ways that are consistent with the original cognitive-appraisal dimensions of the emotion. To pit the valence and appraisal-tendency approaches against one another, we present a study that addresses whether two emotions of the same valence but differing appraisals—anger and fear—relate in different ways to risk perception. Consistent with the appraisal-tendency hypothesis, fearful people made pessimistic judgements of future events whereas angry people made optimistic judgements. In the Discussion we expand the proposed model and review evidence supporting two social moderators of appraisal-tendency processes.     

Effects of valence and framing in decision-making: Assessing decision-makers' perceived domains of choice

Abstract: In comparison between choice alternatives, judgments of “How much better is a preferred option?” and “How much worse is a less preferred option?” may differ in their magnitudes. Such discrepancies are called “valence effects”. Previously, Yamagishi and Miyamoto (1996 ) observed systematic positive valence effects (“Better” exceeding “Worse”) in the domain of gains and systematic negative valence effects (“Worse” exceeding “Better”) in the domain of losses. The current experiments used the directions of valence effects as a tool to assess decision‐maker's interpretation of choice tasks under “framing effects” ( Tversky & Kahneman, 1986 ). Preferences under the framing effect switch from certain options in the domain of gains to uncertain options in the domain of losses. Two experiments showed that preferences for certain options were associated with positive valence effects, whereas preferences for uncertain options were associated with negative valence effects. Moreover, conditions wherein the framing manipulations lose the effectiveness were examined. Valence effects showed that framing effects ceased to occur when decision‐makers maintained consistent domain perceptions as pertaining to gains or to losses, across the domains of gains and losses. Implications are discussed.     

Automatic attention does not equal automatic fear: preferential attention without implicit valence

Theories of nonassociative fear acquisition hold that humans have an innate predisposition for some fears, such as fear of snakes and spiders. This predisposition may be mediated by an evolved fear module (Ohman & Mineka, 2001) that responds to basic perceptual features of threat stimuli by directing attention preferentially and generating an automatic fear response. Visual search and affective priming tasks were used to examine attentional processing and implicit evaluation of snake and spider pictures in participants with different explicit attitudes; controls (n = 25) and snake and spider experts (n = 23). Attentional processing and explicit evaluation were found to diverge; snakes and spiders were preferentially attended to by all participants; however, they were negative only for controls. Implicit evaluations of dangerous and nondangerous snakes and spiders, which have similar perceptual features, differed for expert participants, but not for controls. The authors suggest that although snakes and spiders are preferentially attended to, negative evaluations are not automatically elicited during this processing.     

Assessing categorization performance at the individual level: a comparison of Monte Carlo simulation and probability estimate model procedures

Two analytical procedures for identifying young children as categorizers, the Monte Carlo Simulation and the Probability Estimate Model, were compared. Using a sequential touching method, children aged 12, 18, 24, and 30 months were given seven object sets representing different levels of categorical classification. From their touching performance, the probability that children were categorizing was then determined independently using Monte Carlo Simulation and the Probability Estimate Model. The two analytical procedures resulted in different percentages of children being classified as categorizers. Results using the Monte Carlo Simulation were more consistent with group-level analyses than results using the Probability Estimate Model. These findings recommend using the Monte Carlo Simulation for determining individual categorizer classification.     

Supervisors' performance feedback to subordinates: The impact of subordinate performance valence and outcome dependence

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of two variables on supervisors' performance feedback to subordinates: (1) the valence of the subordinate's performance, that is, whether the subordinate has performed well or poorly, and (2) the degree to which the supervisor's monetary outcomes are dependent on the subordinate's performance. It was hypothesized that supervisors would give subordinates feedback less often about instances of poor performance than about instances of good performance, but that when given, their feedback about poor performance would be more specific than their feedback about good performance. It was also hypothesized that supervisors would give feedback more often under conditions of high outcome dependence than under conditions of low outcome dependence. The results strongly supported the two performance valence hypotheses. The outcome dependence hypothesis was also supported, but only when the subordinate exhibited a pattern of gradually worsening performance. The implications of these findings are discussed, as are directions for future research.     

A multinomial model to assess central characteristics of mental operators

Knowledge about potential operators, about the preconditions of their applicability, and about their effects is essential to interact effectively with the physical world. Four classes of representational units of this knowledge can be distinguished: I) rules, II) structures, III) instances, and IV) episodes. Two important characteristics of these units are the abstractness of content and the directionality of access. A multinomial model is presented that enables the measurement of these characteristics. Three experiments were conducted to validate the parameters of the model. The multinomial model could be fitted very well to the empirical data of each experiment. Moreover, the parameter estimates showed the expected effects. The model allows the investigation of the influence of important variables (for example, knowledge domain, type of instruction, or amount of practice) on characteristics of mental operators without a strong commitment to any specific process theory. Debates regarding the contribution of different kinds of knowledge can be converted into statistical tests of the corresponding model parameters.     

On the automatic activation of attitudes

We hypothesized that attitudes characterized by a strong association between the attitude object and an evaluation of that object are capable of being activated from memory automatically upon mere presentation of the attitude object. We used a priming procedure to examine the extent to which the mere presentation of an attitude object would facilitate the latency with which subjects could indicate whether a subsequently presented target adjective had a positive or a negative connotation. Across three experiments, facilitation was observed on trials involving evaluatively congruent primes (attitude objects) and targets, provided that the attitude object possessed a strong evaluative association. In Experiments 1 and 2, preexperimentally strong and weak associations were identified via a measurement procedure. In Experiment 3, the strength of the object-evaluation association was manipulated. The results indicated that attitudes can be automatically activated and that the strength of the object-evaluation association determines the likelihood of such automatic activation. The implications of these findings for a variety of issues regarding attitudes--including their functional value, stability, effects on later behavior, and measurement--are discussed.     

Belief in a just world and social perception: evidence for automatic activation

The authors tested the hypothesis that beliefs in a just world are automatically activated and used in social perception. Under the guise of a perceptual vigilance task, the authors exposed 34 undergraduate women preconsciously to words that were either rape-related or neutral. Immediately after the exposure, participants read a date scenario that was ambiguous with respect to the man's aggressiveness and the extent to which the woman was responsible for the man's behavior. Afterwards, all participants evaluated the target man and woman on an impression task. The primary finding was that participants holding stronger beliefs in a just world perceived the target woman more negatively after experiencing the rape-related prime words than after experiencing the neutral words. This pattern is consistent with a research literature that shows that believers in a just world will often "blame the victim" in cases of rape. The present findings are important because they provide evidence that general, orienting beliefs are automatically activated in a manner similar to that shown by stereotype beliefs. The authors discussed implications for social perception.     

On the automatic activation of associated evaluations: An overview

A review of the literature concerning the phenomenon known as automatic attitude activation is presented. The robustness of the affective priming effect across many different procedural variations, the mediating mechanisms thought to underlie the effect, and the moderating role of associative strength are discussed. The relevance and importance of automatic attitude activation to many fundamental cognitive and social processes also is highlighted. Finally, an overview of the articles included in this Special Issue of Cognition and Emotion, their essential contributions, and their relation to the earlier literature is presented.     

Immediate emotion-enhanced memory dependent on arousal and valence: The role of automatic and controlled processing

The phenomenon that emotional stimuli are better remembered than neutral ones is called emotion-enhanced memory (EEM). Previous studies have shown that both valence and arousal of stimuli contributed to EEM. Kensinger and Corkin (2004) proposed that the EEM dependent on arousal was associated with automatic encoding processes, whereas the EEM dependent on valence was associated with controlled encoding processes. Their experiment with negative words provided some evidence for this associative pattern. However, it is unclear whether the observed association that occurred with negative emotional stimuli could be replicated with positive emotional stimuli. To further examine this issue, two experiments were conducted to investigate the immediate EEM of emotional words in three different attention conditions using a divided attention (DA) paradigm. Results indicated that the immediate EEM dependent on valence was associated with controlled processing, while the immediate EEM dependent on arousal was not always associated with automatic processing. The immediate EEM dependent on arousal for negative stimuli was associated with automatic processing, whereas the immediate EEM dependent on arousal for positive stimuli was associated with controlled processing. Therefore, the immediate EEM dependent on arousal, whether it is associated with automatic or controlled processing, is moderated by the valence of stimuli.     

MPROB: Computation of multinomial probabilities

An algorithm for computing exact multinomial probabilities is presented that uses the fewest number of operations that are possible without symbolic simplification of the multinomial coefficient and performs them in a sequence that minimizes the potential for overflow or underflow errors. Multinomial probabilities computed with this algorithm are accurate to machine precision, unlike those based on logarithmic transformations and/or the evaluation of factorials, using Stirling’s approximation.