Suicide Prediction

ABSTRACT: Methodological problems intrinsic to suicide prediction are discussed. The research on suicide predictive signs derived from attributes of the suicidal person, his behavior, and his surroundings, and on predictive instruments is reviewed. The results of these researches are equivocal, in that neither single signs, standard psychological tests, specially devised tests, clinical judgments, nor scales are found to be able to predict suicide at useful levels. Scales are shown to offer the best predictive potential, but to date their construction has not been systematic. It is proposed that scales might be better constructed and prediction improved if investigators were to consider the focus, duration, inclusion-exclusion, interactions and subgroupings, and generalizability of suicidal indices.     

Invariance in Measurement and Prediction Revisited

Borsboom (Psychometrika, 71:425–440, 2006) noted that recent work on measurement invariance (MI) and predictive invariance (PI) has had little impact on the practice of measurement in psychology. To understand this contention, the definitions of MI and PI are reviewed, followed by results on the consistency between the two forms of invariance in the general case. The special parametric cases of factor analysis (strict factorial invariance) and linear regression analyses (strong regression invariance) are then described, along with findings on the inconsistency between the two forms of invariance in this context. Two numerical examples of inconsistency are reviewed in detail. The impact of violations of MI on accuracy of selection is illustrated. Finally, reasons for the slow dissemination of work on invariance are discussed, and the prospects for altering this situation are weighed. This paper is based on the Presidential Address given at the International Meeting of the Psychometric Society in Tokyo, Japan, on July 11, 2007. This research was supported by National Institute of Mental Health grants 1P30 MH 068685-01A1 and RO1 MH64707-01.     

Genuine versus Simulated Suicide Notes: An Issue Revisited Through Discourse Analysis

ABSTRACT: Classic studies of written suicide notes have sought to develop criteria for discriminating genuine from simulated notes. In this article, the authors provide a method of discourse analysis and apply this method to the discrimination of genuine from simulated notes used in previous studies. Reports of significant differences among language measures as well as the results of a multiple discriminant analysis using the discourse analysis are reported. In addition, a language profile of the suicidal individual is given along with suggestions for research and clinical use of the method.     

Suicide Risk Prediction: A New Approach*

A computer program that collects suicide risk factors by computer interview from persons with thoughts of suicide and processes the data to provide risk predictions has been written and pilot tested. Patient acceptance of the interviewing technique was good; more than half of the patients interviewed preferred the computer to a doctor as an interviewer. Bayes Theorem is used to process the data collected against a subjective data base. In a retrospective study comparing risk predictions made by the computer with predictions by experienced clinicians, the computer was more accurate in predicting suicide attempters (p .01) and slightly less accurate in predicting nonattempters. The program is economical, can be used wherever a telephone and a computer terminal are available, and is readily and uniformly modified to include new data.     

An Assessment of the Utility of Suicide Prediction*

ABSTRACT: Efforts to predict a future event assume varying levels of confidence depending on its base rate and the error rate of the prediction instrument. Most researchers working with suicide prediction instruments seem tacitly to assume they will be able to predict a future suicide most of the time. Applying basic decision theory on a neuropsychiatric hospital population indicates that researchers using a prediction schedule will be unlikely to predict a future suicide beyond a 20% level of efficiency. Contrary to the general clinical view, eliminating false negatives was shown to be more practical than eliminating false positives in increasing the efficiency of a predictive schedule.     

"Recipe for a Jury" Revisited: A Balance Theory Prediction

This study examined the relationship of three variables to verdict confidence in an experimental simulation of the jury deliberation process. The three variables were: sex of juror, verdict (guilty or innocent), and the similarity or dissimilarity between juror and confederate verdicts (congruence or incongruence). The subjects were 35 male and 37 female college students. They deliberated in groups containing a male confederate who role-played an obnoxious anti-White or anti-Black juror. Results indicated that before deliberation, male and guilt verdict jurors were more confident than females and innocent verdict jurors. After deliberation, however, sex differences in verdict confidence were absent while innocent verdicts jurors were more confident than guilt verdict jurors. Most important, as predicted from Heider's Balance Theory, males who deliberated with a confederate whose verdict was congruent with theirs' became less confident in their verdicts. Unexpectedly, females became more confident. The study's major hypothesis, then, that it may be advantageous for the defense to accept a juror who zealously advocates a guilty verdict, was only supported for males.     

Prediction Study of Adult Creative Achievement: Torrance's Longitudinal Study of Creativity Revisited

The purpose of this study is to reanalyze Torrance's longitudinal study (1981) by employing a multiple regression analysis to find the best predictors for adult creative achievement. A total of 211 cases were available for this study. The results of the regression analysis led to the predictive rule that comprised the following predictors: creativity test score, childhood future career image, intelligence test score, and the existence of a mentor. These four predictors explained 49% of the total variance in adult creative achievement.     

Prediction of Suicide Intent in Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Adolescent Inpatients: A Research Note

The relationship among depressive symptoms, anxiety, hopelessness, and suicidal intent was explored in a group of 77 adolescents who had been hospitalized after attempting suicide. Regression analyses indicated that hopelessness was the only significant predictor of suicide intent in Caucasian patients, and depressed mood was the only significant predictor in the Aboriginal group. Clinicians should be aware that measures of hopelessness may be of limited value in assessing suicidal risk in Aboriginal adolescents.     

Marijuana Revisited

This review examines recent research on the psychological effects of marijuana. The article contains material on potency, research problems, use patterns in the United States, and expectancy, as well as a review of research on acute effects, including psychosis, toxic delerium, acute anxiety, and brain damage. Nonacute effects are also examined, with material on studies of amotivational syndrome, intellectual functioning, memory, sexual activity, and driving. Research on marijuana's relationship to other drugs and to criminal behavior is also evaluated. Implications for counselors are discussed. Counselors are urged to help provide accurate information to users and to encourage an informed-decision approach. The significance of marijuana use to value and life-style choice and the counselor's role in considering marijuana law changes are evaluated.     

Quotation Revisited

Philosophical Studies -     

Porn Revisited

In this paper I will revisit the debate over pornography by doing three things: (a) I will suggest a more sophisticated, two-dimensional set of distinctions between positons in the debate; (b) I will then go on to attack both libertarians and the group I call "repressive feminists"; and (c) I will conclude by suggesting that by means of Hume's theory of sympathy we could support a limited form of censorship to bring women more fully into our moral and political community. I turn first to the labors of definition.     

We-Intentions Revisited

This paper gives an up-to-date account of we-intentions and responds to some critics of the author’s earlier work on the topic in question. While the main lines of the new account are basically the same as before, the present account considerably adds to the earlier work. For one thing, it shows how we-intentions and joint intentions can arise in terms of the so-called Bulletin Board View of joint intention acquisition, which relies heavily on some underlying mutually accepted conceptual and situational presuppositions but does not require agreement making or joint intention to form a joint intention. The model yields categorical, unconditional intentions to participate in the content of the we-intention and joint intention (viz. shared we-intention upon analysis). The content of a we-intention can be, but need not be a joint action. Thus a participant alone cannot settle and control the content of the intention. Instead the participants jointly settle the content and control the satisfaction of the intention. These and some other features distinguish we-intentions from “action intentions”, viz. intentions that an agent can alone settle and satisfy. The paper discusses weintentions (and other “aim-intentions”) from this perspective and it also defends the author’s earlier account against a charge of vicious circularity that has been directed against it.     

Confidentiality Revisited

This article challenges the importance and necessity of confidentiality, which are often taken for granted, and questions whether the default promise of confidentiality to all participants, particularly in educational research, could in fact be an unnecessary concern. This article begins by reviewing the difference in the way confidentiality is handled in different fields and the applicability of some underlying assumptions. This is followed by an explanation of why confidentiality is investigated in the sense of anonymity in this article. Then the article draws on an empirical study where original researchers and their original participants were interviewed about their views on anonymity. Lastly, the contradiction between the promises of confidentiality and the recognition of a participant’s contribution is highlighted. The article concludes with a call for more empirical observation and investigation into the importance of confidentiality.

Jihad Revisited

This article offers an overview of the various formulations of jihad during the first six Islamic centuries (7th–13th CE), showing them to be embedded in particular socio‐historical contexts. If the essential significance of jihad as righteous cause (i.e., action for the sake of a moral order) is shown to have been variously altered according to the needs and conditions of the Muslim community, significant possibilities arise for a contemporary understanding of jihad that is relevant to the needs and circumstances of the Muslim community today. Some features of the jihad tradition, although specific to a particular period and with little relevance today, continue to inform the current discussion on jihad. Discussion of the jihad tradition, then, should take care to distinguish the historically incidental features of the tradition from those with an enduring relevancy. By doing so, the jihad tradition will be able to contribute to discussions on the relation of religion to the public order and political organization, even those not limited to Islam.