Context affects the interpretation of low but not high numerical probabilities: A hypothesis testing account of subjective probability

Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted either positively, suggesting the occurrence of the target event, or negatively, suggesting its non-occurrence. High numerical probabilities, however, are typically interpreted positively. We argue that the greater directional ambiguity of low numerical probabilities may make them more susceptible than high probabilities to contextual influences. Results from five experiments supported this premise, with perceived base rate affecting the interpretation of an event’s numerical posterior probability more when it was low than high. The effect is consistent with a confirmatory hypothesis testing process, with the relevant perceived base rate suggesting the directional hypothesis which people then test in a confirmatory manner.     

Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: A single model for both

In a recent issue of this journal, Winman and Juslin (34 , 135–148, 1993) present a model of the calibration of subjective probability judgments for sensory discrimination tasks. They claim that the model predicts a pervasive underconfidence bias observed in such tasks, and present evidence from a training experiment that they interpret as supporting the notion that different models are needed to describe judgment of confidence in sensory and in cognitive tasks. The model is actually part of the more comprehensive decision variable partition model of subjective probability calibration that was originally proposed in Ferrell and McGoey (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26 , 32–53, 1980). The characteristics of the model are described and it is demonstrated that the model does not predict underconfidence, that it is fully compatible with the overconfidence frequently found in calibration studies with cognitive tasks, and that it well represents experimental results from such studies. It is concluded that only a single model is needed for both types of task.     

Kano model of autonomous driving user acceptance according to driver characteristics: A survey study

The development of advanced technology has revolutionized human life. In this regard, autonomous driving, a core technology currently being developed, is changing rapidly. In addition to improving technology, the acceptance of technology users must be secured. Most relevant studies conducted hitherto have involved evaluation using acceptance elements defined based on the technology acceptance model and the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology. In this study, 21 elements associated with the acceptance of autonomous driving are defined. The Kano model is used to classify the acceptance elements into five attributes and to propose guidelines for improving acceptance. Driver characteristics are classified based on four human factors, which are used to investigate differences in acceptance between groups. A Google survey and fieldwork were completed by 187 participants. Contrary to previous studies, no significant gender differences are observed in the current study. In terms of age, many obstacles are encountered in securing autonomous driving acceptance from the elderly driver group. Additionally, a more conservative tendency is indicated by people with more driving experience. The results of this study reveal important points for identifying elements that hinder future sustainability and commercialization of autonomous driving, thereby facilitating its further technological development.