Improving the Accuracy of Group Judgment: A Process Intervention Combining Group Facilitation,Social Judgment Analysis,and Information Technology

Interacting groups fail to make judgments as accurate as those of their most capable members due to problems associated with both interaction processes and cognitive processing. Group process techniques and decision analytic tools have been used with groups to combat these problems. While such techniques and tools do improve the quality of group judgment, they have not enabled groups to make judgments more accurate than those of their most capable members on tasks that evoke a great deal of systematic bias. A new intervention procedure that integrates group facilitation, social judgment analysis, and information technology was developed to overcome more fully the problems typically associated with interaction processes and cognitive processing. The intervention was evaluated by testing the hypothesis that groups using this new procedure can establish judgment policies for cognitive conflict tasks that are more accurate than the ones produced by any of their members. An experiment involving 16 four- and five-member groups was conducted to compare the accuracy of group judgments with the accuracy of the judgments of the most capable group member. A total of 96 participants (48 males and 48 females) completed the individual part of the task; 71 of these participants worked in groups. Results indicated that the process intervention enabled small, interacting groups to perform significantly better than their most capable members on two cognitive conflict tasks (p < .05). The findings suggest that Group Decision Support Systems that integrate facilitation, social judgment analysis, and information technology should be used to improve the accuracy of group judgment.     

How to explain receptivity to conjunction-fallacy inhibition training: Evidence from the Iowa Gambling Task

Intuitive predictions and judgments under conditions of uncertainty are often mediated by judgment heuristics that sometimes lead to biases. Using the classical conjunction bias example, the present study examines the relationship between receptivity to metacognitive executive training and emotion-based learning ability indexed by Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) performance. After completing a computerised version of the IGT, participants were trained to avoid conjunction bias on a frequency judgment task derived from the works of Tversky and Kahneman. Pre- and post-test performances were assessed via another probability judgment task. Results clearly showed that participants who produced a biased answer despite the experimental training (individual patterns of the biased → biased type) mainly had less emotion-based learning ability in IGT. Better emotion-based learning ability was observed in participants whose response pattern was biased → logical. These findings argue in favour of the capacity of the human mind/brain to overcome reasoning bias when trained under executive programming conditions and as a function of emotional warning sensitivity.     

Who can escape the natural number bias in rational number tasks? A study involving students and experts

Many learners have difficulties with rational number tasks because they persistently rely on their natural number knowledge, which is not always applicable. Studies show that such a natural number bias can mislead not only children but also educated adults. It is still unclear whether and under what conditions mathematical expertise enables people to be completely unaffected by such a bias on tasks in which people with less expertise are clearly biased. We compared the performance of eighth‐grade students and expert mathematicians on the same set of algebraic expression problems that addressed the effect of arithmetic operations (multiplication and division). Using accuracy and response time measures, we found clear evidence for a natural number bias in students but no traces of a bias in experts. The data suggested that whereas students based their answers on their intuitions about natural numbers, expert mathematicians relied on their skilled intuitions about algebraic expressions. We conclude that it is possible for experts to be unaffected by the natural number bias on rational number tasks when they use strategies that do not involve natural numbers.     

Information processing and estimation of short time intervals.

Duration estimates were assessed by the method of reproduction with filled reproduction intervals. Mental arithmetic, reading and mirror-image drawing were used in pairs as initial and/or reproduction tasks. All nine possible pairs of tasks were used in a 9 X 5 X 5 mixed design with five Ss per task pair and five interruption intervals for each initial task. Results indicated that, when arithmetic was used as the initial task, Ss underestimated the duration of the initial interval. When arithmetic was used as the reproduction task, Ss overestimated the duration of the initial interval. A significant correlation was obtained between arithmetic outputs and the lengths of the duration estimates. Results are interpreted as supportive of Burnside's (1971) interpretation of Ornstein's (1969) storage-size hypothesis.     

Reducing the performance-cue bias in work behavior ratings: can groups help?

The authors examined whether the performance-cue bias can be reduced by relying on groups as raters. Study participants (N = 333) were provided with feedback regarding the performance of a workgroup and, after observing the group, assigned to an individual or group rater condition to complete a behavioral rating instrument. Results revealed that when provided with positive (vs. negative) feedback, individuals attributed more effective and fewer ineffective behaviors to the workgroup; however, group ratings were unaffected by the feedback. In addition, feedback biased the decision criteria and false alarm rates of individuals but not of groups. Discussion of when groups may attenuate versus amplify bias in performance appraisal judgments emphasizes 2 key elements-bias magnitude and task perception.     

Exploring the rabbit hole of possibilities by myself or with my group: The benefits and liabilities of activating counterfactual mind‐sets for information sharing and group coordination

The current experiment explored the effect of activating a counterfactual mind‐set on the discussion of unique information and group judgment accuracy. Evidence suggests that a counterfactual mind‐set is characterized by a focused, analytic mental state and, when activated at the group level, improves group judgment accuracy in the murder mystery paradigm (a hidden profile task). We hypothesized that the beneficial effect of the counterfactual mind‐set would only help group problem‐solving tasks if the mind‐set had been activated at the group level, allowing the analytical mind‐set to play out in an atmosphere of synergistic coordination. In contrast, if this highly focused mental state is activated at the individual level, it could impair group judgment quality because inwardly focused analytical individuals may fail to coordinate their behavior with other group members. Consistent with our hypothesis, activating a counterfactual mind‐set at the individual level had a debilitating effect on the group judgment task, whereas activating a counterfactual mind‐set at the group level had a facilitative effect, increasing information sharing, synergistic coordination and judgment accuracy. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Being distinctive versus being conspicuous: The effects of numeric status and sex-stereotyped tasks on individual performance in groups

Being in the numeric minority (e.g., being a solo woman in a group of men) influences how well a person performs within a work group. But being the solo member is only one way in which people can be atypical in a group; a person can also represent a social or demographic category that has not typically been associated with the task that the group is working on. Using a design with four categories of group composition (minority, balanced, majority, homogeneous) and two categories of tasks (sex-typical, sex-atypical) we found that the sex composition of the group interacted with the sex typicality of the task to influence both positive deferrals by group members and individual performance in groups. But, rather than consistently reducing performance as prior research has suggested, being numerically atypical enhanced individual performance when the task was typical for that person’s sex. Further, positive deferrals mediated between the interaction of numeric composition and task typicality in influencing individual performance suggesting that both majority group members and the solo member affect one another’s performance in groups. We conclude by discussing why understanding the interplay between these two sources of stereotyping, numeric composition and task typicality, is important for understanding the social nature of individual performance in groups.     

Effects of Consensus Information and Task Demonstrability on Preference-Consistent Information Evaluation and Decision Quality in Group Decision Making

Groups often fail to solve hidden profiles even when all information is exchanged. This is partly due to biased evaluation of information. We examined the effects of consensus information and task demonstrability on preference-consistent information evaluation and decision quality. The results showed that the evaluation of unshared but not shared information was moderated by consensus information and task demonstrability. For unshared information, majority members exhibited a higher evaluation bias favoring preference-consistent information than minority members. Task demonstrability reduced the evaluation bias only when group members received no information about the other members' preferences. Finally, majority members were less likely to solve the hidden profile than minority members, and this was partially mediated by the evaluation bias favoring preference-consistent unshared information.     

An empirical evaluation of the SYNWORK1 multiple-task work environment

SYNWORK1 is a multiple-task work environment that allows up to four tasks (memory search, arithmetic, visual monitoring, and auditory monitoring) to be performed concurrently. Experiments were conducted to evaluate performance and subjective workload for each individual task and all combinations of tasks at two presentation rates. At the slower default rates, the three experiment-paced tasks were not very demanding, and improvements with practice were due primarily to the subject-paced arithmetic task. Doubling the presentation rates made the demands of all tasks more comparable and decreased the influence of arithmetic performance. SYNWORK1 is useful for comparisons between populations of individuals and evaluations of arousal-related variables, and, with modification, could provide a tool for assessing basic issues in multiple-task performance.     

Group moral discount: Diffusing blame when judging group members

People lie more when they work as a group rather than alone. However, do people suspect and morally evaluate groups and individuals differently when they are suspiciously successful? In four experiments, we examine whether (a) suspiciously successful individuals and groups are judged and punished differently and (b) individual group members are judged differently from the group as one unit. Results suggest that people suspect successful groups and individuals to the same extent. However, group members are less likely to be suspected, judged negatively, punished, and reported on, when they are judged as separate individuals compared with as a group. The findings demonstrate a bias in judgment of group members, stemming from the method of evaluation—holistic or separate. We suggest that in order to minimize bias when judging misconduct by a group, the moral evaluation and punishment of all group members should be considered simultaneously.     

Combined behavioural markers of cognitive biases are associated with anhedonia

Biases towards negative information, as well as away from positive information, are associated with psychopathology. Examining biases in multiple processes has been theorised to be more predictive than examining bias in any process alone. Anhedonia is a core symptom of psychopathology and predictive of future psychopathological symptoms. Finding that combined biases are associated with anhedonia would advance knowledge of the nature of emotional processing biases and the value of objective performance-based measures for identifying early risk markers. Participants (N?=?139) completed tasks that assess latency bias (dot probe) and biased recognition (two-alternative forced-choice) of emotional information, as well as an anhedonia measure. An index was computed for each task’s performance reflecting biased processing of positive and negative words. Only combined biases on both tasks were associated with anhedonia. Attentional bias was positively associated with anhedonia, but only when recognition bias for emotional words was high. Thus, assessing biases in multiple domains increased sensitivity to uncover relationships between emotional processing biases and anhedonic symptoms.     

Separating value from selection frequency in rapid reaching biases to visual targets

Stimuli associated with positive rewards in one task often receive preferential processing in a subsequent task, even when those associations are no longer relevant. Here we use a rapid reaching task to investigate these biases. In Experiment 1 we first replicated the learning procedure of Raymond and O'Brien (2009), for a set of arbitrary shapes that varied in value (positive, negative) and probability (20%, 80%). In a subsequent task, participants rapidly reached toward one of two shapes, except now the previously learned associations were irrelevant. As in the previous studies, we found significant reach biases toward shapes previously associated with a high probable, positive outcome. Unexpectedly, we also found a bias toward shapes previously associated with a low probable, negative outcome. Closer inspection of the learning task revealed a potential second factor that might account for these results; since a low probable negative shape was always paired with a high probable negative shape, it was selected with disproportionate frequency. To assess how selection frequency and reward value might both contribute to reaching biases we performed a second experiment. The results of this experiment at a group level replicated the reach-bias toward positively rewarding stimuli, but also revealed a separate bias toward stimuli that had been more frequently selected. At the level of individual participants, we observed a variety of preference profiles, with some participants biased primarily by reward value, others by frequency, and a few actually biased away from both highly rewarding and high frequency targets. These findings highlight that: (1) rapid reaching provides a sensitive readout of preferential processing; (2) target reward value and target selection frequency are separate sources of bias; and (3) group-level analyses in complex decision-making tasks can obscure important and varied individual differences in preference profiles.     

Two to tango: effects of collaboration and disagreement on dyadic judgment

Four studies examined dyadic collaboration on quantitative estimation tasks. In accord with the tenets of "na?ve realism," dyad members failed to give due weight to a partner's estimates, especially those greatly divergent from their own. The requirement to reach joint estimates through discussion increased accuracy more than reaching agreement through a mere exchange of numerical "bids." However, even the latter procedure increased accuracy, relative to that of individual estimates (Study 1). Accuracy feedback neither increased weight given to partner's subsequent estimates nor produced improved accuracy (Study 2). Long-term dance partners, who shared a positive estimation bias, failed to improve accuracy when estimating their performance scores (Study 3). Having dyad members ask questions about the bases of partner's estimates produced greater yielding and accuracy increases than having them explain their own estimates (Study 4). The latter two studies provided additional direct and indirect evidence for the role of na?ve realism.     

Correcting memory improves accuracy of predicted task duration

People are often inaccurate in predicting task duration. The memory bias explanation holds that this error is due to people having incorrect memories of how long previous tasks have taken, and these biased memories cause biased predictions. Therefore, the authors examined the effect on increasing predictive accuracy of correcting memory through supplying feedback for actual task duration. For Experiments 1 (paper-counting task) and 2 (essay-writing task), college students were supplied with duration information about their previous performance on a similar task before predicting task duration. For Experiment 3, participants were recruited at various locations, such as fast food restaurants and video arcades, and supplied with average task duration for others before predicting how long the task would take. In all 3 experiments, supplying feedback increased predictive accuracy. Overall, results indicate that, when predicting duration, people do well when they rely not on memory of past task duration but instead on measures of actual duration, whether their own or that of others. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved).     

Performance on a coincidence timing task correlates with intelligence

Timed performance measures from a coincidence timing (CT) task taking about 10 minutes are shown to have significant correlations with psychometric general intelligence in a group of 56 children. This task required subjects to press a key when a moving target is coincident with a stationary line. The mean absolute error across three conditions (CTE) correlated - .294 with Raven's Standard Progressive Matrices (SPM) scores but was sex biased, with girls being less accurate than boys. The mean intrasubject standard deviation or consistency (CTC) correlated - .359 and showed no sex bias. The overall performance score (CTP, the sum of CTE and CTC) correlated - .357, and had a smaller but significant sex bias. The correlations partialing out sex were - .363, - .371, - .369 for CTE, CTC, and CTP, respectively. It is suggested that CT tasks are a useful addition to the already known timed performance measures that correlate with intelligence and can provide a tool to increase our understanding of psychometric intelligence.     

The domain specificity and generality of overconfidence: Individual differences in performance estimation bias

One hundred twenty-three college students performed a knowledge assessment task and a game of motor skill in which they had to predict their performance before each block of trials. There was a bias in the direction of overconfidence on both tasks, even though the latter involved the motor domain, did not require the use of numeric probabilities, and allowed predictions to be made by using an aggregate judgment made in a frequentist mode. An analysis of individual differences indicated that there was considerable domain specificity in confidence judgments. However, participants who persevered in showing overconfidence in the motor task—despite previous feedback revealing their overconfident performance predictions—were significantly more overconfident in the knowledge calibration task than were participants who moderated their motor performance predictions so as to remove their bias toward overconfidence. The latter finding is consistent with explanations of overconfidence effects that implicate mechanisms with some degree of domain generality.     

The use of heuristics in intuitive mathematical judgment

Anecdotal evidence points to the use of beauty as an indication of truth in mathematical problem solving. In the two experiments of the present study, we examined the use of heuristics and tested the assumption that participants use symmetry as a cue for correctness in an arithmetic verification task. We manipulated the symmetry of sets of dot pattern addition equations. Speeded decisions about the correctness of these equations led to higher endorsements for both correct and incorrect equations when the addend and sum dot patterns were symmetrical. Therefore, this effect is not due to the fact that symmetry facilitates calculation or estimation. We found systematic evidence for the use of heuristics in solving mathematical tasks, and we discuss how these findings relate to a processing-fluency account of intuition in mathematical judgment.     

Children's working memory: investigating performance limitations in complex span tasks

Three experiments investigated the roles of resource-sharing and intrinsic memory demands in complex working memory span performance in 7- and 9-year-olds. In Experiment 1, the processing complexity of arithmetic operations was varied under conditions in which processing times were equivalent. Memory span did not differ as a function of processing complexity. In Experiment 2, complex memory span was assessed under three conditions designed to vary both processing and intrinsic storage demands: mental arithmetic (significant attentional demands-requires storage), odd/even judgments (significant attentional demands-no storage required), and articulatory suppression (minimal attentional demands--no storage required). The highest memory spans were found in the articulatory suppression task. Span was at an intermediate level with arithmetic processing and was lowest for processing involving odd/even judgments. This difference in memory span for processing tasks involving arithmetic processing and odd/even judgments was eliminated in Experiment 3 when the pacing requirements of the arithmetic and odd/even processing tasks were equated. The results are consistent with the view that complex memory span performance is disrupted by processing activities that divert attentional resources from storage.     

Assembling a task space: global determination of local shift costs

Most theorizing on the origin of the costs that are associated with task shifts focuses on local transitions between individual trials. In the present article we argue that this emphasis has resulted in a neglect of more global representational structures, which also determinate shift costs. To substantiate this claim, we employed a set of four tasks that results from a factorial combination of two types of judgment and two judgment-to-response mappings. From previous work it is known that this kind of task combination is associated with a characteristic profile of shift costs as a function of the relation between successive tasks. Previously we have interpreted this profile as an indication of a hierarchically ordered dimensional representation of the two types of judgment and the two judgment-to-response mappings. Such a representation can only be expected to emerge when the two task features, judgment and mapping, vary independently of each other within the same situation. It is shown that the characteristic shift cost profile can indeed only be observed when the performance of any of the four tasks is required in a block of trials. In contrast, with only two tasks occurring in each block of trials, shift costs do not reflect the relation between successive tasks. This finding confirms the importance of global representational structures as a determinant of shift costs beyond local transitions between individual trials.     

Working memory in event‐ and time‐based prospective memory tasks: Effects of secondary demand and age

An experiment is reported examining the role of working memory in two laboratory‐based prospective memory (PM) tasks. Participants viewed a film for a later recognition memory task while simultaneously monitoring auditorially presented arithmetic problems for incorrect solutions. The arithmetic verification task was either low demand or high demand. In addition, participants were required either to indicate whenever an animal appeared in the film (event‐based PM task), or whenever 3 min had elapsed (time‐based PM task). PM performance was higher when the arithmetic task was low demand than when it was high demand. Young participants were more successful in both PM tasks than older participants, but only under high demand. Age did not interact with PM task type overall, and the young participants were faster overall in both types of PM task. Taken together, the results indicate that working memory plays an important role in PM tasks.