Data-Based Construction of Multidimensional Probabilistic Models with MUDIM

The goal of the paper is to introduce a program system, MUDIM,and to show how it can be used for multidimensional probabilisticmodel construction. The system is being developed with the goalto gain a tool for experimental computations with compositionalmodels which are, in a way, an alternative to Bayesian networks.These models are based on the idea of composing a multidimensionaldistribution from a great number of low-dimensional ones. Whenconsidering knowledge-based systems, this approach quite naturallycope with the difficulty of expressing global knowledge abouta field of practise. We have only to work with a system of piecesof local knowledge from which the global knowledge must be assembled.     

Two-Part Predictors in Regression Models

Researchers often build regression models to relate a response to a set of predictor variables. In some cases, there are predictors that apply to some participants, or to some measurement occasions, but not others. For example, a romantic partner's substance use may be a key predictor of one's own substance use. However, not all participants have a partner, and in a longitudinal study, participants may have a partner during only some occasions. This could be viewed as missing data, but of a very distinctive type: the values are not just unknown but also undefined. In this paper, we present a simple method to accommodate this situation, along with a motivating example, the algebraic justification, a simulation study, and examples on how to carry out the technique.     

高层管理者的心智模式研究

高层管理者的心智模式对企业经营及绩效有着非常重要的影响.本文首先对不同学派关于心智模式的定义进行了简要的回顾,在此基础上,对高层管理者心智模式的内涵进行了界定.其次,从知识的视角,进一步把高层管理者心智模式的构成要素分为知识体系、信念体系和改善体系等三类.最后,从企业决策、企业文化与管理风格、组织设计、战略决策等四个方面阐述了高层管理者心智模式对企业管理活动的影响.     

空间情境模型中的空间关系

1　前言　　在语言理解过程中 ,人们不仅可以建立和更新语言的文字表征 (ｔｅｘｔ ｂａｓｅｄｒｅｐｒｅｓｅｎｔａｔｉｏｎ)或较精确的命题表征 (ｐｒｏｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎａｌｒｅｐｒｅｓｅｎｔａｔｉｏｎ) ,而且会建立和更新对语言描述的情境的心理是表征(ｓｉｔｕａｔｉｏｎｍｏｄｅｌｓｏｒｍｅｎｔａｌｍｏｄｅｌｓ) [1 ,2 ] 。Ｚｗａａｎ和Ｒａｄｖａｎｓｋｙ将情境表征分为五个维度 ,时间、空间、因果关系、意图和主角 ,其中空间情境表征是最重要的 ,也是研究最多的维度[3] 。2　空间情境模型的组织　　语言理解产生的空间情境模型的…     

Spatial Mental Models in Linear Reasoning

There is ample evidence that linear syllogisms are solved by constructing mental models, which semantically represent states in the world (Evans, Newstead, &; Byrne, 1993; Vandierendonck &; De Vooght, 1996 a). Such models are built by combining the information presented in the premises into an integrated representation, which is often thought of as spatial. The present article (a) presents evidence for an integrated spatial representation of premise information and (b) proposes a model construction process based on scanning processes that locate the position where new information is to be integrated into the spatial model.     

A Class of Probabilistic Unfolding Models for Polytomous Responses

By revisiting the approaches used to present the Rasch model for polytomous response, this paper uses the principle of the rating formulation (Andrich, 1978) to construct a class of unfolding models for polytomous responses in terms of a set of latent dichotomous unfolding variables. By anchoring the dichotomous unfolding variables involved at the same location, this paper presents a formulation of a very general class of unfolding models for ordered polytomous responses, of which the unfolding models for ordered polytomous responses proposed hitherto are special cases. Within this class, the analytic and measurement properties of the probabilistic functions are well interpreted in terms of the latitudes of acceptance parameters of the dichotomous unfolding models. Based on the general form of this class of unfolding models, some new models are readily specified. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.     

共享心智模型研究现状

共享心智模型是指团队成员共同拥有的知识结构,它使得团队成员能就团队作业形成正确的解释和预期,从而协调自己的行为以适应于团队作业和其他团队成员的需求。其研究为理解和提高团队绩效提供了新的视角,从而成为了团队研究的新热点。该文首先明确其定义以及相关概念,再介绍它的几种类型,进而介绍研究中采用的测量方法,最后总结其影响因素及对团队绩效的影响。文章最后指出研究中存在的问题以及今后的研究方向。     

心理模型及其探查技术的研究

自从1943年Craik首次提出心理模型概念以来,有关心理模型的研究已大量涌现,目前有两条心理模型的研究思路．文章分别沿着这两条思路介绍有关心理模型的研究,并以访谈法和观察法为线索梳理了心理模型的探查技术．最后指出心理模型及其探查技术的研究趋向：两条研究思路的整合和多种探查技术的整合。     

Bias in Conditional Inference: Implications for Mental Models and Mental Logic

Three experiments are reported in which subjects are given the opportunity to make any of the four inferences associated with conditional statements: modus ponens (MP), denial of the antecedent (DA), affirmation of the consequent (AC), and modus tollens (MT). The primary purpose of the research was to establish the generality and robustness of polarity biases that may be occasioned by systematic rotation of negative components in the conditional rules. In Experiments 1 & 2, three forms of conditionals were used: “if (not) p then (not) q”, “(not) p only if (not) q” and “(not) q if (not) p”. Experiment 1 used a conclusion evaluation task, whereas Experiment 2 used a conclusion production task. In Experiment 3, thematic conditionals were presented with and without a preceding scenario.

The biases investigated were (a) affirmative premise bias—the tendency to draw more inferences from affirmative premises and (b) negative conclusion bias—the tendency to draw more inferences with negative conclusions. The suggestive evidence for affirmative premise bias in the literature was not supported: very little evidence was found for it in the current experiments. Robust findings of negative conclusion bias were, however, found across the three experiments, although the bias was mostly restricted to DA and MT inferences. This suggests that the bias is best regarded as a difficulty with double negation.

The results are discussed with respect to both the mental logic and mental model accounts of propositional reasoning. Neither theory as currently formulated can explain all of our findings, although a plausible revision of each is considered.     

Patterns and Predictors of Adult Age Differences in Mental Imagery

Adult age differences in, and predictors of, component imagery processes were examined across a broad elderly adult age range (65-86 years). Relative to younger adults, older adults were slower and less accurate on tasks of image generation, maintenance, scanning, and rotation. Ability to maintain mental images in particular was compromised by older age. Manipulations of stimulus complexity produced inconsistent differential age effects across tasks. Processing speed and sensorimotor functioning were prominent predictors of performance and age-related variance in all imagery components, with smaller contributions from working memory and executive function. These findings suggest that age-related decrements in individual imagery processes depend primarily on how quickly information can be processed and on the neurophysiological integrity of the ageing brain.     

Mental Models of the Day/Night Cycle

This article presents the results of an experiment which investigated elementary school children's explanations of the day/night cycle. First, third, and fifth grade children were asked to explain certain phenomena, such as the disappearance of the sun during the night, the disappearance of stars during the day, the apparent movement of the moon, and the alteration of day and night. The results showed that the majority of the children in our sample used in a consistent fashion a small number of relatively well-defined mental models of the earth, the sun, and the moon to explain the day/night cycle. These mental models of the day/night cycle were empirically accurate, logically consistent and revealed some sensitivity on the part of the children to issues of simplicity of explanation. The younger children formed Initial mental models which provided explanations of the day/night cycle based on everyday experience (e.g., the sun goes down behind mountains, clouds cover up the sun). The older children constructed synthetic mental models (e.g., the sun and the moon revolve around the stationary earth every 24 hours; the earth rotates in an up/down direction and the sun and moon are fixed on opposite sides) which represented attempts to synthesize the culturally accepted view with aspects of their Initial models. A few of the older children appeared to have constructed a mental model of the day/night cycle similar to the scientific one. A theoretical framework is outlined which explains the formation of initial, synthetic, and scientific models of the day/night cycle in terms of the reinterpretation of a hierarchy of constraints, some of which are present early in the child's life, and others which emerge later out of the structure of the acquired knowledge.     

Exploring Factor Model Parameters across Continuous Variables with Local Structural Equation Models

Using an empirical data set, we investigated variation in factor model parameters across a continuous moderator variable and demonstrated three modeling approaches: multiple-group mean and covariance structure (MGMCS) analyses, local structural equation modeling (LSEM), and moderated factor analysis (MFA). We focused on how to study variation in factor model parameters as a function of continuous variables such as age, socioeconomic status, ability levels, acculturation, and so forth. Specifically, we formalized the LSEM approach in detail as compared with previous work and investigated its statistical properties with an analytical derivation and a simulation study. We also provide code for the easy implementation of LSEM. The illustration of methods was based on cross-sectional cognitive ability data from individuals ranging in age from 4 to 23 years. Variations in factor loadings across age were examined with regard to the age differentiation hypothesis. LSEM and MFA converged with respect to the conclusions. When there was a broad age range within groups and varying relations between the indicator variables and the common factor across age, MGMCS produced distorted parameter estimates. We discuss the pros of LSEM compared with MFA and recommend using the two tools as complementary approaches for investigating moderation in factor model parameters.     

Attributional Style and Personality as Predictors of Happiness and Mental Health

This paper contains two studies which set out to examine to what extent attributional style (internal, stable, global) and personality traits predicted happiness and psychiatric symptoms in a normal, non-clinical, population of young people in their early twenties. Two hundred and three participants completed five questionnaires: the Attributional Style Questionnaire (ASQ) (version one & version two), Eysenck Personality Questionnaire, Oxford Happiness Inventory, and Langner 22-Item Measure. Sample 1 (n = 120) completed ASQ version one (in both positive and negative situations) and sample 2 (n = 83) completed ASQ version two (in expanded negative situations). Regressional analysis showed that ASQ (in both versions) was the significant predictor of happiness and mental health accounting for 20% to 38% of variances. The ASQ was significantly associated with extraversion and neuroticism. Further, with happiness and mental health as dependent variables and attributional style, personality traits, and demographic variables as independent variables respectively, extraversion and attributional stability (in positive situations) were the significant predictors of happiness accounting for 59% of the total variance whilst neuroticism and psychoticism were the significant predictors of mental health accounting for 53% of the total variance. The results indicated that optimistic attributional style in positive situations was a stronger predictor of self-reported happiness than mental health and pessimistic attributional style in negative situations was a predictor of both happiness and mental health. Extraverts tended to have optimistic explanatory style for positive outcomes whereas neurotics tended to have pessimistic explanatory style for negative outcomes.     

团队作业与团队互动两类共享心智模型的发展特征

共享心智模型指团队成员关于团队作业、策略、团队情境、团队互动等的共同的知识结构,根据内容不同可以分为团队作业模型和团队互动模型两类。该研究通过实验室实验探讨两类共享心智模型的发展特征。132名大学生组成44个3人团队,随机分为团队绩效反馈组和无团队绩效反馈组。采用相似性评定法在团队执行作业前、中、后三次测量两类共享心智模型。结果发现：（1）共享心智模型随团队运作时间增加而发展;（2）团队互动模型形成和发展的难度高于团队作业模型;（3）团队绩效反馈对两类心智模型发展的作用不同,反馈加速了团队作业模型的发展速度,但却是团队互动模型能否得以发展的决定性因素。两类共享心智模型的不同发展特征应归因于两者特异性高低的不同     

Situation Models: The Mental Leap Into Imagined Worlds

Situation models are mental representations of the state of affairs described in a text rather than of the text itself. Much of the research on situation models in narrative comprehension suggests that comprehenders behave as though they are in the narrated situation rather than outside of it. This article reviews some of this evidence and provides an outlook on future developments.     

反应抑制的心理加工模型与神经机制

反应抑制是指抑制不符合当前需要的或不恰当行为反应的能力, 也是执行控制加工的重要成分。解释反应抑制的心理加工模型有两种: 反应与抑制相互独立的赛马模型和交互作用的赛马模型。近年来对反应抑制神经机制的研究表明: 额叶－基底神经节系统内的超直接通路和间接通路可能共同负责对优势反应的抑制, 而额下回、辅助运动区/辅助运动前区和前部扣带回皮层等脑区可能是抑制控制的关键脑区; 反应抑制与反应选择、工作记忆和注意的神经加工之间存在密切联系, 它们的激活脑区既相互重叠, 又相互区别; 右背外侧前额皮层的激活可能反映与抑制任务相关的注意和工作记忆的加工。未来的研究需要将脑损伤、神经功能成像和经颅磁刺激等多种技术结合起来, 进一步阐明上述脑区在反应抑制中的相互作用机制。     

The Role of Independence and Stationarity in Probabilistic Models of Binary Choice

After more then 50 years of probabilistic choice modeling in economics, marketing, political science, psychology, and related disciplines, theoretical and computational advances give scholars access to a sophisticated array of modeling and inference resources. We review some important, but perhaps often overlooked, properties of major classes of probabilistic choice models. For within‐respondent applications, we discuss which models require repeated choices by an individual to be independent and response probabilities to be stationary. We show how some model classes, but not others, are invariant over variable preferences, variable utilities, or variable choice probabilities. These models, but not others, accommodate pooling of responses or averaging of choice proportions within participant when underlying parameters vary across observations. These, but not others, permit pooling/averaging across respondents in the presence of individual differences. We also review the role of independence and stationarity in statistical inference, including for probabilistic choice models that, themselves, do not require those properties. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

复杂任务中共享心智模型间的缓冲作用

共享心智模型（SMM）指队员对于团队的共享心理表征。复杂任务下高的一致性难以获得且易造成小集体意识,SMM的作用在于相互间的调节及共享信念对低一致性的调节作用。为了验证这些假设对9名不同行业创业者进行访谈,对访谈材料进行内容分析得到心智模型关键概念,经过概化理论分析后得到了4个SMM：任务、队友、团队协作以及团队精神。使用心智模型问卷在ERP模拟实验中测量31个团队的绩效和SMM一致性。结果发现团队协作模型一致性是预测绩效的有力指标;团队构成不影响各个SMM一致性;任务模型一致性正向缓冲了团队协作模型一致性对绩效的作用;团队精神模型一致性正向缓冲了团队协作模型一致性对绩效的作用。研究提示SMM对冲突的引导及增进团队成员相互理解方面的作用。