The role of warning behaviors in threat assessment: an exploration and suggested typology

The concept of warning behaviors offers an additional perspective in threat assessment. Warning behaviors are acts which constitute evidence of increasing or accelerating risk. They are acute, dynamic, and particularly toxic changes in patterns of behavior which may aid in structuring a professional's judgment that an individual of concern now poses a threat - whether the actual target has been identified or not. They require an operational response. A typology of eight warning behaviors for assessing the threat of intended violence is proposed: pathway, fixation, identification, novel aggression, energy burst, leakage, directly communicated threat, and last resort warning behaviors. Previous research on risk factors associated with such warning behaviors is reviewed, and examples of each warning behavior from various intended violence cases are presented, including public figure assassination, adolescent and adult mass murder, corporate celebrity stalking, and both domestic and foreign acts of terrorism. Practical applications and future research into warning behaviors are suggested.     

Neurodevelopmental and psychosocial risk factors in serial killers and mass murderers

Multiple and serial murders are rare events that have a very profound societal impact. We have conducted a systematic review, following PRISMA guidelines, of both the peer reviewed literature and of journalistic and legal sources regarding mass and serial killings. Our findings tentatively indicate that these extreme forms of violence may be a result of a highly complex interaction of biological, psychological and sociological factors and that, potentially, a significant proportion of mass or serial killers may have had neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism spectrum disorder or head injury. Research into multiple and serial murders is in its infancy: there is a lack of rigorous studies and most of the literature is anecdotal and speculative. Specific future study of the potential role of neurodevelopmental disorders in multiple and serial murders is warranted and, due to the rarity of these events, innovative research techniques may be required.     

Differentiation of death-row murderers and life-sentence murderers by antisociality and intelligence measures

Prior studies of dangerousness have confirmed that the combination of high antisociality and low IQ is associated with male criminal violence and that the same combination can discriminate within a group of violent male criminals by level of severity. My study continued the validation of this two-component measure by showing that men convicted of murder and given the death sentence for their more heinous crimes were more dangerous than murderers who received life sentences. Men who had been extended the death penalty, who selected female victims, and whose murders were judged to have been especially cruel received extraordinarily high dangerousness scores relative to all other murderers. The assumption that high antisociality and low IQ would lead to serious violence because of the criminal's inability to deal with complications that arise in confronting the victim received some support. The murders of more dangerous men followed stronger victim resistance than the murders committed by less dangerous men.     

Escalation from Fetish Burglaries to Sexual Violence: A Retrospective Case Study of Former Col., D. Russell Williams

Criminal history narrative studies reveal an escalation in sexual offender behaviour from non‐contact to contact offending, with an ever‐increasing likelihood of sexual violence and homicide. In particular, researchers have found that sexual offenders often have a history of committing burglaries prior to contact offences. Accordingly, researchers have suggested that burglaries may be associated with an increased likelihood of future sexual offending, particularly when they have a sexual element to them. However, to date, there has been little quantitative research focusing on the mechanisms of escalation in sexual offences. This paper seeks to study factors associated with sexual offence escalation in terms of changes in offence seriousness and frequency. Specifically, case evidence was gleaned from a series of fetish burglaries and subsequent sexual assaults and murders committed by the former Canadian Colonel David Russell Williams (RW). Cluster analysis, chi‐square, ANOVA, and regression analyses were conducted on the crime scene information of RW's 82 cases of fetish burglary. Analyses revealed a significant escalation in the frequency and seriousness of RW's fetish burglary offences prior to committing acts of sexual violence and ultimately sexual homicide. Recommendations for future research predicting escalation of sexual offending by frequency and seriousness of offending behaviour are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predatory violence aiming at relief in a case of mass murder: Meloy's criteria for applied forensic practice

Mass murder is the result of the complex interaction of several factors. What seems ubiquitous within mass murder are extreme feelings of anger and revenge. Yet despite these intense affective states, mass murders are, as a rule, not behaviorally impulsive, but rather prepared. The presence of extreme hate and anger evokes an impulsive outburst of rage, whereas planning and premeditation point in the direction of a cognitive, rather unemotional deed. This inconsistency is also reflected in reports of offenders' emotional states during the execution of their crimes: while some mass murderers have been described as calm, focused and emotionless during the events, others have shown signs of hostility, confusion, and distress. Considering mass murder from the perspective of its violence mode might shed some light on its nature and dynamics. With respect to the differentiation between affective and predatory violence, Meloy (1988) developed a model for applied forensic practice. The fully documented case of mass murder discussed in this study contains nine indices of predatory violence and one of affective violence. Furious affects of hate and anger were present but appeared to precede the cold-blooded killings. As a matter of fact, it is argued that the offender carried out the predatory murder in order to alleviate the psychological tension and symptoms generated by these severe ego-dystonic affects. The offender thus didn't seem to strive for narcissistic gratification of omnipotence, but rather seemed to aim to solve a problem.     

Differentiation of Death-Row Murderers and Life-Sentence Murderers by Antisociality and Intelligence Measures

Prior studies of dangerousness have confirmed that the combination of high antisociality and low IQ is associated with male criminal violence and that the same combination can discriminate within a group of violent male criminals by level of severity. My study continued the validation of this two-component measure by showing that men convicted of murder and given the death sentence for their more heinous crimes were more dangerous than murderers who received life sentences. Men who had been extended the death penalty, who selected female victims, and whose murders were judged to have been especially cruel received extraordinarily high dangerousness scores relative to all other murderers. The assumption that high antisociality and low IQ would lead to serious violence because of the criminal's inability to deal with complications that arise in confronting the victim received some support. The murders of more dangerous men followed stronger victim resistance than the murders committed by less dangerous men.     

Parental Exposure to Mass Violence and Child Mental Health: The First Responder and WTC Evacuee Study

Children’s reactions after being exposed to mass violence may be influenced by a spectrum of factors. Relatively unexplored is the extent to which family exposure to mass violence may affect child mental health, even when these children have not been directly exposed. In a representative sample of NYC public school children assessed 6 months after the September 11, 2001 attack on the World Trade Center (WTC), seemingly elevated rates of psychopathology were recorded among children of WTC evacuees. Children of NYC First Responders (police officers, EMTs, and fire fighters) displayed a complex pattern of response to the WTC attack. Overall, the findings from this previous study support putative transmission of trauma to children whose parents were exposed to the WTC attack. The “Children of First Responder and WTC Evacuee Study”—a two-site longitudinal study—is currently underway in the United States (New York City) and in Israel (Tel Aviv area) in an effort to understand the impact of different patterns of mass violence. The NYC sample permits us to examine the impact of a rare instance of mass violence (e.g., WTC attack), while the Israeli sample provides information about repeated and frequent exposure to mass violence brought about by acts of terrorism. In addition, children’s exposure to mass violence is considered in the context of their exposure to other potentially traumatic events. This study aims to improve our general understanding of the impact of mass violence on children, especially the psychological effects on children whose parents’ work experiences are by nature stressful. Knowledge generated by this study has implications for guiding efforts to meet the needs of children who have, directly or through a family member, been subjected to rare or infrequent mass violent event as well as to children whose exposure to mass violence is part of daily life.     

Do criminal offenders specialize in crime types?

A common misconception exists that criminal offenders specialize in types of crime, such as serial murders, domestic violence, and sex offenses. This article explores the research on specialization in general criminal offenders, domestic violence offenders, and sex offenders. This review finds that although there are a few specialists, the majority of criminal offenders are generalists who exhibit wide versatility in offending. The implications for legal and mental health policies are discussed.     

Do criminal offenders specialize in crime types?

A common misconception exists that criminal offenders specialize in types of crime, such as serial murders, domestic violence, and sex offenses. This article explores the research on specialization in general criminal offenders, domestic violence offenders, and sex offenders. This review finds that although there are a few specialists, the majority of criminal offenders are generalists who exhibit wide versatility in offending. The implications for legal and mental health policies are discussed.     

Self–Serving Perceptions of Terrorism Among Israelis and Palestinians

Definitions of political violence as terrorism are often tainted by self–serving motivations. Groups in conflict in particular tend to justify the use of indiscriminate violent means by highly regarded political ends. This study explores such self–serving perceptions of terrorism in the context of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. In two surveys during December 2001, Israeli Jews, Israeli Arabs and Palestinians were asked whether 11 local and international incidents were acts of terrorism in their view, and whether they were considered acts of terrorism by the international community. Self–serving judgments on both sides were expected, but their extent is striking, and they extend also to the international incidents. Israeli Arabs judge all acts of violence as terrorism in high percentages. Israeli Jews and Palestinians' definitions present a mirror image; however, they do not project these definitions to the international community. Instead, they perceive an international norm largely divergent from their own point of view, inflating world judgment of their own acts of violence as terrorism and underestimating world judgment of the other side's violence, in what amounts to a hostile–world phenomenon.     

Intergroup attribution bias in the context of extreme intergroup conflict

Limited research has examined attributional biases in the context of extreme intergroup conflict, and the research that does exist contains methodological shortcomings. To remedy this, 282 Indonesians read a newspaper article describing a violent incident in Ambon. Christians (but not Muslims) used stronger situational attributions for violent ingroup acts than for violent outgroup acts. In contrast, both Muslims and Christians used stronger dispositional attributions for violent outgroup acts than for violent ingroup acts. This latter tendency emerged independently of who was described in the article as the perpetrators of the violence. Implications for our understanding of intergroup conflict are discussed.     

Assessing threats of targeted group violence: contributions from social psychology.

Recent increases in domestic and international acts of extremist violence perpetrated against American citizens have prompted an increased need for information to help understand and evaluate the threat posed to U.S. targets by extremist groups and their individual members. The purpose of this paper is to (i) suggest the potential relevance of social psychological research on group behavior for understanding and assessing threats of extremist group violence; and, (ii) encourage more systematic research on group violence to further inform assessments of group risk. Approaching the issue from the levels of group behavior, and of individual behavior within a group context, the article summarizes research on key principles of group behavior, and the effects of group membership on individual behavior; proposes specific questions derived from these principles for consideration in evaluating risk for violence by groups, and by individuals influenced by groups; and suggests further research needs.     

When white collar criminals turn to fatal violence: The impact of narcissism and psychopathy

The present article takes as its point of departure Perri's view, according to whom the impact of personality traits such as psychopathy and narcissism has unduly been omitted in research on white collar criminality. However, this article argues that although such factors have an important role to play in some cases when white collar criminals turn violent in order to prevent the detection of their felonies, they constitute neither the necessary nor the sufficient conditions for white collar criminals to commit murders. This means on the one hand that, although potentially increasing the risk for violence, these traits are not by themselves sufficient as the triggers of violent acts and can function so only under certain social‐contextual circumstances. However, such personality traits are not by themselves necessary, as there can be empirical cases of fraud detection murder committed by white collar criminals lacking them. This position is supported by both a logical analysis of Perri's main arguments and by empirical evidence, consisting of a few real‐life cases of Scandinavian white collar criminals who have “turned red.”     

Children and Political Violence from a Social Ecological Perspective: Implications from Research on Children and Families in Northern Ireland

The effects on children of political violence are matters of international concern, with many negative effects well-documented. At the same time, relations between war, terrorism, or other forms of political violence and child development do not occur in a vacuum. The impact can be understood as related to changes in the communities, families and other social contexts in which children live, and in the psychological processes engaged by these social ecologies. To advance this process-oriented perspective, a social ecological model for the effects of political violence on children is advanced. This approach is illustrated by findings and methods from an ongoing research project on political violence and children in Northern Ireland. Aims of this project include both greater insight into this particular context for political violence and the provision of a template for study of the impact of children’s exposure to violence in other regions of the world. Accordingly, the applicability of this approach is considered for other social contexts, including (a) another area in the world with histories of political violence and (b) a context of community violence in the US.     

Intimate Partner Violence Assessment in an Historical Context: Divergent Approaches and Opportunities for Progress

This paper provides a brief history of the assessment of intimate partner violence (IPV) in the United States. We examine strengths and weaknesses of the original IPV assessment approaches and describe the modifications and extensions that have been employed to improve our understanding of the multifaceted nature of IPV. We next discuss more recent movements in IPV assessment, including the assessment of non-heterosexual relationships, the examination of various (and often intersecting) forms of IPV, and the identification of qualitatively different types of IPV. We provide an analogy between the assessment of IPV and the assessment of other problems such as depression, and compare the differences between an assessment of symptoms and an assessment of impairment or harm. We conclude by highlighting the need for multi-method assessment approaches that can account for both the frequency and intensity of aggressive acts, as well as the context, motivations, and impacts of such acts, in order to develop a comprehensive understanding of violence in intimate relationships.     

THE PATTERNS OF DYADIC FOREIGN CONFLICT FOR 1963

Five patterns of dyadic foreign conflict behavior were delineated for 1963. The first of these patterns was negative communications, which accounted for patterns, violence intensity, and warning and defensive acts, marked the general decrease in military activity from 1966 to 1963. The most militant conflict behavior in 1963 was that of China to Taiwan and Taiwan to China. There were a number of warning and defensive acts, most noteworthy being those of Indonesia to Malaysia and Malaysia to Indonesia. Negative sanctions and unofficial incidence of violence were the most stable patterns of foreign conflict behavior between 1966 to 1963, each accounting for about ten percent of foreign conflict behavior. The United States was involved in a number of sanctions directed against Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Russia, and South Vietnam. The unofficial incidents of violence occurred most frequently in the less developed, smaller nations, and were frequently directed against major world powers. The negative communication pattern characterized the primary behavior of the major world powers.     

Features and investigative implications of muti murder in South Africa

Drawing upon anthropological, legal and forensic publications, an interview with a South African Zulu traditional healer and direct information gained during homicide investigations, the nature of Muti murder is discussed. Muti murder is defined as a murder in which body parts are removed from a live victim for the sole purpose of using the victim's body parts medicinally. These body parts are then often mixed with other ingredients or used alone to make a medicine called muti. Muti is a Zulu (umuthi) word meaning medicine. The victim usually dies as a result of blood loss from the wounds. While muti murders have occurred throughout history in South African culture, little is known about them and little research exists on the phenomenon. The term muti murder has been used interchangeably with the term ritual or sacrificial murder, often adding to confusion in terminology and definitions regarding these types of cases. This paper provides an overview of muti murder, explains the context in which these types of murder occur, defines the offenders and victims involved, and provides guidelines for investigating these types of murders. Two cases where muti murder was suspected are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From steroids to nation states: An integrated evolutionary approach to violent crime

Most evolutionary psychologists emphasize the individual level of analysis concerning violent crime and other dependent variables. This paper outlines a strategy for evolutionary explanation of societal variation across time as well as space and applies it to crimes of violence. The central idea is that individual adaptations for reproductive competition play out differently depending both on developmental context and societal conditions, including the marriage market. Violent crimes (murders, rapes, and assaults) are substantially higher in countries with a relative scarcity of men according to research using INTERPOL and World Health Organization data [Barber, N. (2000a). The sex ratio as a predictor of cross-national variation in violent crime. Cross-Cultural Research, 34, 264–282, Barber, N. (2009). Countries with fewer males have more violent crime: Marriage markets and mating aggression. Aggressive Behavior, 35, 49–56]. This is an apparent contradiction given that males are more criminally violent and likely reflects increased direct mating competition that evokes increased testosterone production for humans as for other species. The empirical evidence is discussed in terms of direct reproductive competition and various alternative explanations, particularly the “culture of violence” and socialization experiences are considered.     

Theology after the Massacre in Norway

In 2011 Norway experienced its worst violent attack in peacetime and one of the most horrible mass murders ever: one young, white Norwegian killed 77 people, injured 40, and destroyed the Government Building in Oslo. He explained that the terror as a necessary attack on the Social Democracy and the multi‐ethnic and pluralistic society. Was he insane or competent? Was he guilty? In this article I argue that theology can contribute to the debate about guilt, punishment, and evil acts. A contextual theology today should draw from the treasures in the Christian tradition and take part in contemporary discourses about existential and ethical issues.