Public policy and the wisdom of crowds

Collective intelligence, or the wisdom of crowds, refers to a phenomenon by which, under the right conditions, groups of individuals can render highly accurate judgments. This phenomenon has long played an important role in economics, where understanding the behavior of groups is often essential to explaining economic outcomes. More recently, political scientists have shown that trends in public opinion show evidence of collective intelligence. This article further explores how the wisdom of crowds affects politics. I look at two types of decision-making processes, those governed by group dynamics versus those rendered by organizations. Distributional analysis of financial markets and foreign exchange rates shows that when policies are determined by groups they are less prone to instabilities, evidence that in certain issue areas decision-making by groups is more readily adaptive to shifting environmental cues than decisions made through organizational deliberation.     

The wisdom of crowds in one mind: How individuals can simulate the knowledge of diverse societies to reach better decisions

The joint knowledge of many diverse individuals can outperform experts in estimation and decision-making problems. This wisdom of the crowd has been demonstrated in different societal areas such as internet search engines, political elections or stock markets. Recently, psychologists argued that humans may even simulate a diverse society in their own minds by drawing different answers from their brain (Vul &; Pashler, 2008). The underlying idea is that individuals can access different knowledge areas in their brain, whose joint evaluation yields better estimates than their separate consideration. This article presents a mathematical treatment of the wisdom of crowds and two potential mechanisms to quantify the wisdom of crowds in one mind. The implications of both methods are analyzed and applied to new experimental data (N=144), which contain five consecutive estimates from the same individuals. The theoretical and empirical analysis demonstrates limitations of the wisdom of crowds in one mind: Asking oneself several times is on average less powerful than asking only one other individual. This is due to the smaller diversity of estimates of similar individuals and the larger average bias to which they converge. Further, individuals cannot perform independent draws from an “internal distribution”. Hence, there may be other mechanisms at work such as talking oneself into believing initial guesses or eliciting progressively wilder ones.     

存在与解释：刍议心理咨询境域的诗性智慧

诗性智慧是生活境域中非主体化、非对象化的此在智慧,解释学是迄今诗性智慧在哲学中的最好阐发,它消解了思与诗之间长期紧张的二元对立,为至今仍困扰于科学主义与人本主义范式分裂的心理咨询提供了可资超越的借鉴。理解在时间的境域中氤氲着诗性智慧的光焰生生不息。     

存在与解释:刍议心理咨询境域的诗性智慧

诗性智慧是生活境域中非主体化、非对象化的此在智慧,解释学是迄今诗性智慧在哲学中的最好阐发,它消解了思与诗之间长期紧张的二元对立,为至今仍困扰于科学主义与人本主义范式分裂的心理咨询提供了可资超越的借鉴.理解在时间的境域中氤氲着诗性智慧的光焰生生不息.     

Zoroaster: A multiprogramming system for psychological research

The development of a multiprogramming system for psychological research was undertaken on a PDP-9 computer with 8k memory. The needs of the users and the time demands on the computer raised several important questions: (1) Can a practical timesharing system be developed with only 8k memory? (2) Can critical timing functions be maintained? (3) Can easy access be provided (e.g., Fortran) to all experimental devices? (4) Can a system be designed which will take advantage of and be compatible with most of the standard DEC-provided software (e.g., Fortran compiler, loader)? The system was successfully developed by using a rapid within-core swapping technique, standard I/O routines, many general-purpose handlers and subroutines, and fully utilizing available core.     

A scale for the psychological magnitude of number

A scale of the “psychological magnitude” of number was constructed from similarity ratings of the 45 number pairs that can be obtained from a set of 10 integers. A nonmetric analysis of these similarity ratings showed that “psychological number” was a power function of number.     

敬畏生命是智慧的开端

敬畏是对万物尊严的直观,是对超然性的辨识。犹太-基督教认为,智慧由敬畏推动,敬畏是信仰的前提,是信仰的根源。人们应当接受敬畏的指导。丧失敬畏,就会缺少洞察力。科学主义是失去敬畏的结果。学术界最近对科学主义的讨论,说明人文精神开始崛起。科学主义大概是一种国产货。我们今天应当在世界大家庭的语境中说话或言说。敬畏自然与敬畏生命,二者同中有异。但是,我们所说的敬畏自然,一点也不意味着自然主义。我们反对科学技术的僭越。自然主义恰恰忽视不同于单纯物质的生命。国内学者已经普遍注意到人类道德的关怀应当扩大到人类之外的存在上。     

Betrayal: A psychological analysis

Betrayal is the sense of being harmed by the intentional actions or omissions of a trusted person. The most common forms of betrayal are harmful disclosures of confidential information, disloyalty, infidelity, dishonesty. They can be traumatic and cause considerable distress. The effects of betrayal include shock, loss and grief, morbid pre-occupation, damaged self-esteem, self-doubting, anger. Not infrequently they produce life-altering changes. The effects of a catastrophic betrayal are most relevant for anxiety disorders, and OC D and PTSD in particular.Betrayal can cause mental contamination, and the betrayer commonly becomes a source of contamination. In a series of experiments it was demonstrated that feelings of mental contamination can be aroused by imagining unacceptable non-consensual acts. The magnitude of the mental contamination was boosted by the introduction of betrayal themes. Feelings of mental contamination can also be aroused in some ‘perpetrators’ of non-consensual acts involving betrayal. The psychological significance of acts of betrayal is discussed.     

A program for psychological education: Some preliminary issues

The recent interest in personal and/or psychological education as an objective for school programs has created the necessity for the development of a careful theoretical framework. This paper examines the current status of theory vis à vis personal education and suggests a number of major issues for consideration. A toxonomy for personal education has yet to be developed. Concepts of emotions as “bad”, pathological, and private need revision. Also, it is suggested that adolescence as a stage of development comprehends a special set of theoretical questions which cannot be begged. Particular attention is directed at implications derived from a developmental framework suggested by Piaget in cognitive areas and by Kohlberg in moral growth. Such a framework connotes educational goals as objectives which avoid the problems inherent in other current theoretical frameworks.     

The CORE‐10: A short measure of psychological distress for routine use in the psychological therapies

Background: There is a need for a generic, short, and easy‐to‐use assessment measure for common presentations of psychological distress in UK primary care mental health settings. This paper sets out the development of the CORE‐10 in response to this need. Method: Items were drawn from the CORE‐OM and 10 items were selected according to a combination of usefulness, coverage of item clusters, and statistical procedures. Three CORE‐OM datasets were employed in the development phase: (1) a primary care sample, (2) a sample from an MRC platform trial of enhanced collaborative care of depression in primary care, and (3) a general population sample derived from the Office of National Statistics Psychiatric Morbidity Follow‐up survey. A fourth dataset comprising a sample from an occupational health setting was used to evaluate the CORE‐10 in its standalone format. Results: The internal reliability (alpha) of the CORE‐10 was .90 and the score for the CORE‐10 correlated with the CORE‐OM at .94 in a clinical sample and .92 in a non‐clinical sample. The clinical cut‐off score for general psychological distress was 11.0 with a reliable change index (90% CI) of 6. For depression, the cut‐off score for the CORE‐10 was 13 and yielded sensitivity and specificity values of .92 (CI=.83–1.0) and 0.72 (CI=.60–.83) respectively. Conclusion: The CORE‐10 is an acceptable and feasible instrument that has good psychometric properties and is practical to use with people presenting with common mental health problems in primary care settings.     

心理的动态平衡论与和谐心理构建——兼谈灾后心理辅导

人的心理是一个动态开放的系统，这个系统在运动、变化、发展中遵循从相对平衡到相对不平衡，再从相对不平衡走向新相对平衡的规律。人心理问题的实质是由于内部或外部某些因素的运动变化，致使心理系统的相对平衡状态遭到破坏，在个体内部及个体与环境之间出现的暂时相对不协调状况，属于从一种心理平衡状态向另一种心理平衡状态的过渡阶段。结合灾后心理辅导，根据动态平衡论提出了心理系统的边界调控、要素调控、途径调控和环境调控，通过个体自身的努力以及这些调控措施，让个体心理顺利地恢复到可以自我调节的动态平衡状态，或者从低级的动态平衡状态顺利地过渡到更能适应环境的高一级的动态平衡状态。     

On the wisdom and utility of (under)sociality: A consumer psychology perspective

Kumar and Epley (2023) review robust evidence for an intriguing hypothesis: That people fail to appreciate the benefits of everyday social behaviors and thus hesitate to connect with others in ways that would increase well-being. In this commentary, we discuss how consumer research can enrich theory and application in this emerging line of inquiry. We suggest (a) that the hedonic implications of undersociality can be integrated with reputational signaling insights to generate new questions about the wisdom and utility of social behavior, and (b) that undersociality has interesting implications for a consumption domain of particular interest to maximizing welfare: charitable giving.     

Wisdom and memory: Autobiographical memories as the foundation for the recall of wisdom incidents

This article explores how autobiographical memory serves as the foundation for people's accounts of their wisdom. Two complementary approaches to wisdom are introduced: an intrapersonal or person-based approach, which defines wisdom as personal qualities or personality traits, and an interactionist or endeavor-based approach, which focuses on wisdom incidents—people's displays of wisdom in real-life situations. The literatures on autobiographical memory and on wisdom suggest that, when wisdom is defined as personal qualities or personality traits, its foundation in autobiographical memory is self-concept. However, when wisdom is defined as actual displays of wisdom, its foundation in autobiographical memory is specific autobiographical memories. The article discusses how autobiographical memory grounds and constrains the memories of wisdom. Further, using research on autobiographical memory, it argues that memories of wisdom incidents serve self, directive, and social functions, and that such memories are highly accessible, vividly remembered, and reasonably accurate.     

肥胖谈论:心理学视角下的沟通方式

肥胖谈论是一种关于身体外貌交流的社会现象,特别是指女性之间关于体型、体重和饮食习惯等自我贬损的谈话。通常认为女性通过肥胖谈论中的自我贬损,能够获得他人的安慰、支持以及印象管理等积极效果,但是研究表明肥胖谈论对身体意象、饮食失调、情绪等存在消极影响。未来的研究应该增加对肥胖谈论的纵向研究,进一步探究肥胖谈论的影响作用,扩展完善肥胖谈论的标准性操作。