Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.     

Some findings on prospect and refuge: I

Prospect and refuge theory suggests that preferences for environments are based on prospect (the unimpeded opportunity to see) and refuge (the opportunity to hide). This article reports two experiments on how well four factors derived from prospect and refuge theory predicted responses of comfort or liking. The factors were prospect (depth of view), refuge (presence of protective regions in front of the observer or occluding edges that might indicate possibilities of escape), direction of light (either front lighting or back lighting), and venue (natural or built environments). Exp. 1 had 16 landscape scenes and 29 participants; Exp. 2 had 16 landscapes, 14 rooms, and 18 participants. Empirical support was obtained for the claim that people will like gazing out over scenes of distant mountains. For venue, built scenes were preferred over scenes of nature. Results for refuge were ambiguous, and those for di rection of light were nill.     

基于预期理论的风险决策的神经机制

预期理论基于对期望效用理论的批判与发展,提出了价值函数与权重函数,对以往风险决策研究中所发现的现象进行了很好的预测与解释。预期理论的核心概念包括参照依赖、损失规避与权重函数。基于预期理论的一些决策偏差包括框架效应、禀赋效应和默认偏差也部分揭示了与人们风险决策有关的脑区。近年来,通过采用功能性核磁共振等脑成像手段对预期理论的一些核心成分进行的研究表明,涉及到人们风险决策的脑区主要有前额叶、纹状体、脑岛与杏仁核。未来的研究可以从预期理论的产生根源、个体发展以及遗传基因等角度进行进一步的探讨。     

奖赏和损失情境下男性海洛因戒断者的风险决策缺陷

摘 要 采用修改版的多伦多赌博任务考察决策情境对海洛因戒断者风险决策的影响。研究结果主要发现,海洛因戒断者在损失情境下的风险寻求决策比率与吸毒年限显著正相关,这种相关提示了风险决策背景下海洛因成瘾者持续使用毒品与其较低的损失敏感性之间的复杂交互作用。其次,海洛因戒断者在做出风险决策后收到消极反馈时的风险规避倾向可以负向预测其风险寻求决策比率,这可能进一步反映了海洛因戒断者风险感知的钝化或其对消极反馈信息的整合加工存在异常。     

I'm feeling lucky: the relationship between affect and risk-seeking in the framing effect

Engagement in risky behavior has traditionally been attributed to an underestimation of the associated risks, but recent perspectives suggest that affective reactions toward a risky option may better explain risk-seeking than risk perception. However, the precise relationship between emotion and risk-seeking remains unclear. The current set of studies elucidates the relationship between emotion and risk-seeking in risky choice framing, using a gambling task. In Study 1, reliance on emotion was related to risk-seeking, but goals to regulate emotion mitigated these effects. In Study 2, positive affect was associated with risk-seeking in loss frames, but unrelated to risk aversion in gain frames. Collectively, these findings indicate a general role for emotion reliance on risk-seeking and a specific role of positive affect on risk-seeking in the loss trials of the framing effect.     

Looking Closer at the Effects of Framing on Risky Choice: An Item Response Theory Analysis

Item response theory (IRT) methodology allowed an in-depth examination of several issues that would be difficult to explore using traditional methodology. IRT models were estimated for 4 risky-choice items, answered by students under either a gain or loss frame. Results supported the typical framing finding of risk-aversion for gains and risk-seeking for losses but also suggested that a latent construct we label preference for risk was influential in predicting risky choice. Also, the Asian Disease item, most often used in framing research, was found to have anomalous statistical properties when compared to other framing items.     

Risk perception and risky choice: Situational, informational and dispositional effects

We investigated how situational (gain–loss), informational (opportunity–threat framing) and dispositional (achievement motive and avoidance motive) variables affected opportunity–threat perception and risky choice in managerial decision-making contexts. In Study 1, the risk preference of the participants showed a reflection effect due to situational differences (gain or loss) and a partial framing effect caused by presenting the same choice information in terms of either opportunities or threats. However, both effects were in the opposite direction of predictions from prospect theory. Gains and positive framing enhanced risk-seeking preference whereas losses and negative framing augmented risk-averse preference. Risk-seeking choices were mediated by opportunity perception whereas risk-averse choices were mediated by threat perception. In Study 2, the participants high in achievement motive perceived greater opportunities in a negative situation, and the participants high in avoidance motive perceived greater threats in a positive situation, suggesting that ambition (achievement motive) operates more significantly in the face of adversities whereas cautiousness (avoidance motive) functions more significantly in prosperity.     

Voice and Culture: A Prospect Theory Approach

The present study examines the congruence of individuals' minimum preferred amounts of voice with the prospect theory value function across nine countries. Accounting for previously ignored minimum preferred amounts of voice and actual voice amounts integral to testing the steepness of gain and loss functions explicated in prospect theory, we use curve fitting to show that ratings of procedural justice fit prospect theory's value function specifically. Further, we investigate the form of this function across nine countries that range in power distance. Results suggest that the form of the value function is congruent with prospect theory, showing an S‐shaped curve that is steeper in the loss than in the gain domain. Further, this pattern is similar across countries. Theoretical and practical implications of these results for both decision making and organizational justice are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

睾酮对价值加工的影响——基于“累积前景”理论框架的决策行为研究

较多研究支持睾酮和决策中的风险寻求行为呈正相关,但是也有其他的研究未能发现这种关系。基于决策的累计前景理论,本研究使用动态估计参数估计任务(DEEP),结合计算模型的方法,对120名双盲给药、有安慰剂对照的被试进行睾酮对价值加工过程作用的探究。结果显示,睾酮减少了个体的概率扭曲以及增加了损失规避,但是没有引发明显的风险寻求行为,研究结果表明睾酮对个体的价值加工过程产生了影响,使个体对概率的感知更接近于客观值并且增加了对损失的敏感性。     

Reacting to Perceived High- and Low-Risk Win–Lose Opportunities in a Risky Decision-Making Task: Is It Framing or Affect or Both?

Affect research has suggested that in high-risk situations, a positive mood often results in an enhanced sensitivity to losses, leading to strong risk-averse behavior relative to neutral or negative mood, but when a situation is seen as being low risk, a reversal occurs and positive affect will often result in more risk-seeking behavior. It was hypothesized that the simple framing of a gambling task to emphasize either potential gains or potential losses could act as an affect inducer and would produce similar results. In Experiment 1 the effects of an induced positive or negative affective state on risk-taking behavior in a gambling task were examined. Results replicated the risk-averse/risk-seeking reversal phenomenon described above. In Experiment 2 the affect conditions were replaced with a simple Winning vs. Losing framing manipulation where an instructional emphasis was placed either on accumulating points or avoiding the loss of points. Results demonstrated that a reversal pattern in risk taking like that found in Experiment 1 for affect could also be obtained via this simple framing manipulation. An affective-cognitive model of pre-choice framing and a theoretical link between the effects of framing and the effects of mood manipulation based on mood management theory are presented and discussed.     

压力下一搏：压力如何影响个体风险寻求

压力促使个体风险寻求已得到许多研究的验证和支持, 但对于该现象背后的根本机制缺乏深入探讨和整合。模型指出, 压力诱发认知资源损耗和心理需要失衡, 导致个体执行控制功能减弱, 奖赏寻求增加, 这两者引起对风险选项价值的高估、风险感知的降低和启发式决策策略的使用, 最终导致风险寻求。期望效用论、预期理论、双系统理论和风险敏感理论的视角能各有侧重地解析模型中的路径。最后, 基于模型梳理了边界条件, 并提出未来可关注压力下执行功能、认知和情绪的交互以及慢性压力的影响和调控。     

Partial report, visual matching, and search as a function of cue-delay

Three experiments are reported where a cue that was varied in time indicated a letter pair (or pairs) in a circular display with six pairs. The S had either to report letters from a pair (Exp. 1) or to decide about the equality of the letter pair (Exp. 2) or to decide about the presence of a target letter given with various delays (Exp. 3). Exp. 1 shows a short-lived partial report superiority, the loss being primarily due to adjacency errors. In Exp. 2 a short loss in the correct same decisions, but almost no loss in the correct "differents" was observed. In spite of its search task character, Exp. 3 showed the same loss as Exp. 1, 2. In all experiments performance recovered with the latest ISI (1 sec). The results of Exp. 1 can be explained by post-categorical accounts of the partial report (PR-) effect (loss of positional information), those of Exp. 2 by visual confusion, i. e. a precategorical account, those of Exp. 3 by neither. The results suggest that the PR-effect might be due to non-visible persistence rather but to visible persistence. A theory of early visual processing which would also explain the PR-effect is still lacking.     

决策的三参照点理论:从原理到应用

三参照点理论(Tri-Reference Point Theory,Wang,2008a; Wang& Johnson,2012)以底线、现状和目标为参照点,将决策结果空间划分为失败、损失、获益和成功4个功能区域.根据3个参照点的心理权重的排序:底线＞目标＞现状,该模型继而推导出跨越不同区域的以现状为分界的双S-型的价值函数,以及据此产生的对于跨越不同参照点的预期结果的偏好转换、和损失-获益及失败-成功的两种不对称性.总之,风险决策的基本任务在于,在使得达到目标的可能性最大化的同时使底线不保的可能性最小化.三参照点理论将统计学和金融学中的均值与方差(均差)分析与行为决策研究中的参照点效应有机地结合在一起;在面对不同的风险选项时,通过分析各个预期结果的均差分布与3个参照点之间的关系作出适应性的决策.本文介绍了三参照点理论的基本推论、运行原则、实证检验、以及它与期望效用理论和前景理论相比较的异同之处.同时我们也探讨了三参照点理论对实践中管理决策的指导意义和多重启示.     

Kinesthetic Recall And Information Bold>Reduction Activity

2 experiments are reported in which interpolated motor activity requiring either information reduction (1.86 bits) or no reduction was compared to a control to examine their effects on kinesthetic retention. Exp. 1 used an independent groups design and found only absolute error to increase over the delay intervals. Information reduction activity did not affect kinesthetic retention and there was increasing negative error for longer movements, with positive response sets for short movements and negative response sets for long movements. Exp. 2 replicated the retention interval conditions using a within-Ss design. No difference between conditions was found for either absolute or algebraic error, but an effect of Retention Intervals was found for absolute error. For both studies, the Interpolated Activity X Retention Interval interaction failed significance. No evidence was found to support interference or available processing capacity expalanation for the loss of retention.     

眼睛注视线索对经济领域风险决策的影响：基于框架效应范式

采用基金投资框架任务,结合眼动技术考察眼睛注视线索与框架类型对风险决策的影响。结果发现：（1）消极眼睛注视线索促进了被试在损失框架下的风险寻求行为,控制组与积极、中性、消极眼睛组的行为结果无显著差异;（2）以均字注视次数为指标的眼动结果表明,积极眼睛组和中性眼睛组对确定损益的关注差异大于对风险损益的关注差异;消极眼睛组和控制组被试对损失的关注大于对收益的关注,对确定项的关注大于对风险项的关注,但两者不存在交互作用。消极眼睛注视线索可能改变了个体对风险性和确定性的感知,并因此影响了人们的风险决策行为,规避消极情绪线索可能有助于减少经济决策中的风险寻求行为。     

Riskier for me or for others? The role of domain and probability in self-other differences,in risky decision-making

Abstract

In social and economic interactions, people often decide differently for others, as against for themselves, under situations involving risks. This sometimes leads to conflicts or contradictions. Although previous studies have explored such contradictions, the findings have been inconsistent. To reconcile these inconsistencies, this paper investigates the role played by the different domains and probabilities in the self-other differences under risk. Two groups of participants completed a gambling task combining different domains (gain vs. loss) and probabilities (small vs. large). One group made decisions for others and the other group made decisions for themselves. The results revealed a four pattern of discrepancy: the ones who made decisions for others were less risk-seeking than those who made decisions for themselves over the small probability gains. This was reversed over the large probability gains. Conversely, the participants who made decisions for others were more risk-seeking than those who made decisions for themselves over the small probability losses. The results were reversed over the large probability losses. These results reconcile the contradictory findings of the previous studies and suggest the significant role played by contextual factors in such discrepancies.     

不同乐观水平大学生的框架效应研究

采用乐观人格倾向问卷筛选乐观水平低组（96名）和高组（99名）大学生,探讨不同乐观水平大学生在生命救助、奖学金申请、娱乐金钱3种决策任务领域上的框架效应及其在性别、专业的特点。结果发现：（1）不同乐观水平大学生在不同决策任务领域上的框架效应特点不同,乐观水平低组和高组大学生在生命救助问题上表现为偏向于风险的单向框架效应,乐观水平高组大学生在娱乐金钱问题上倾向于风险寻求;（2）乐观水平高的男大学生在3种决策任务领域上均倾向于风险寻求,低乐观水平的女大学生在生命救助问题上表现为偏向于风险的单向框架效应;（3）     

风险情景中参照点与管理者认知特征

采用问卷测量的方法探讨风险情景以及个性特征对个体风险倾向的影响。结果显示：(1)成就动机的两个成分,即争取成功与回避失败能够分别预测个体在风险情景中的风险倾向与认知特征;争取成功动机对预测个体机会认知更敏感,而回避失败动机对预测威胁认知更有效。(2)回避失败动机是区分个体风险倾向的关键变量,个体在风险情景中的风险倾向取决于个体回避失败动机的强弱。(3)实验证实了当以“成功”为参照点时,回避失败倾向低的个体,在获益情景中更冒险而在损失情景中更保守;相反,回避失败倾向高的个体,在损失情景中更冒险而在获益情景中更保守。研究表明,结合人格和情景两类变量探讨个体风险倾向的反应模式能够更准确地描述个体行为倾向及其认知特征。这一结论提供了一个可能的思路来解释P理论与刻板模式之间的争执。另外,企业与学生样本在数据的总体趋势上存在相当多的一致性,但在细节上仍然存在差异,因此以学生样本数据进行推论时须要特别谨慎。     

决策任务类型与结果框架对风险决策的影响

本研究考察生命和金钱问题下,获得和损失框架中决策任务类型对风险决策的影响。采用2（任务领域：生命、金钱）×2（决策任务类型：经验、描述）×2（结果框架：获得、损失）被试间设计,使用卡方检验及logistic回归分析后发现：生命和金钱问题下,个体在直接给出方案可能结果的描述性决策中仅表现出损失框架下的风险偏好;在通过自主查看方案可能结果的经验性决策中未发现结果框架作用。描述−经验差距一致性存在于生命和金钱问题中。     

Compositionality and the Prospect of a Pluralistic Semantic Theory

A semantic theory is committed to semantic monism just in case every particular semantic property posited by the theory is a member of the same kind. The commitment to semantic monism appears to draw some support from the need to provide a compositional semantics, since taking a single kind of semantic property as key to a semantic theory affords a uniform pattern on the basis of which the meaning of any given sentence can be compositionally determined. This line of support highlights a tension between the principle of compositionality and taking a more pluralistic approach to semantic theorizing. In this essay, that tension is relieved, leaving open the prospect of a pluralistic semantic theory that observes the principle of compositionality.