Judgement frequency, belief revision, and serial processing of causal information

The main aim of this research was to study the cognitive architecture underlying causal/covariation learning by investigating the frequency of judgement effect. Previous research has shown that decreasing the number of trials between opportunities to make a judgement in a covariation learning task led to a higher score after an a or d type of trial (positive cases) than after b and c trials (negative cases). Experiment 1 replicated this effect using a trial-by-trial procedure and examined the conditions under which it occurs. Experiment 2 demonstrated a similar frequency of judgement effect when the information was presented in the form of contingency tables. Associative or statistical single-mechanism accounts of causal and covariation learning do not provide a satisfactory explanation for these findings. An alternative belief revision model is presented.     

Trial order affects cue interaction in contingency judgment.

Recent research on contingency judgment indicates that the judged predictiveness of a cue is dependent on the predictive strengths of other cues. Two classes of models correctly predict such cue interaction: associative models and statistical models. However, these models differ in their predictions about the effect of trial order on cue interaction. In five experiments reported here, college students viewed trial-by-trial data regarding several medical symptoms and a disease, judging the predictive strength of each symptom with respect to the disease. The results indicate that trial order influences the manner in which cues interact, but that neither the associative nor the statistical models can fully account for the data pattern. A possible variation of an associative account is discussed.     

Comparing associative, statistical, and inferential reasoning accounts of human contingency learning

For more than two decades, researchers have contrasted the relative merits of associative and statistical theories as accounts of human contingency learning. This debate, still far from resolution, has led to further refinement of models within each family of theories. More recently, a third theoretical view has joined the debate: the inferential reasoning account. The explanations of these three accounts differ critically in many aspects, such as level of analysis and their emphasis on different steps within the information-processing sequence. Also, each account has important advantages (as well as critical flaws) and emphasizes experimental evidence that poses problems to the others. Some hybrid models of human contingency learning have attempted to reconcile certain features of these accounts, thereby benefiting from some of the unique advantages of different families of accounts. A comparison of these families of accounts will help us appreciate the challenges that research on human contingency learning will face over the coming years.     

Causal attribution from covariation information: the evidential evaluation model

It is hypothesized that causal attributions are made by transforming covariation information into evidence according to notions of evidential value, and that causal judgement is a function of the proportion of instances that are evaluated as confirmatory for the causal hypothesis under test: this is called the evidential evaluation model. An experiment was designed to test the judgemental rule in this model by setting up problems presenting consensus, distinctiveness, and consistency information in which the proportion of confirmatory instances varied but the objective contingency did not. It was found that judgements tended to vary with the proportion of confirmatory instances. Several other current models of causal judgement or causal attribution fail to account for this result. Similar findings have been obtained in studies of causal judgement from contingency information, so the present findings support an argument that the evidential evaluation model provides a unified account of judgement in both domains. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Positive versus negative face recognition decisions: confidence,accuracy, and response latency

A large amount of eyewitness identification and face recognition research has investigated the confidence–accuracy (CA) relationship. One consistent finding is that positive recognition decisions (or choosers) demonstrate superior CA calibration to negative recognition decisions (or non‐choosers). This experiment tested whether an explanation of this difference, based on the information available for confidence judgements, accounted for the pattern of CA calibration in positive and negative face recognition decisions. CA calibration for positive and negative decisions was compared for both item and associative recognition judgements. Significantly greater resolution was observed for positive decisions in both the item and associative conditions. Similarly, for both judgement types, positive decisions evidenced a stronger response latency–accuracy relationship than negative decisions. Implications for diagnosing the accuracy of eyewitness identification are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The L-type calcium channel blocker nifedipine impairs extinction, but not reduced contingency effects, in mice

We recently reported that fear extinction, a form of inhibitory learning, is selectively blocked by systemic administration of L-type voltage-gated calcium channel (LVGCC) antagonists, including nifedipine, in mice. We here replicate this finding and examine three reduced contingency effects after vehicle or nifedipine (40 mg/kg) administration. In the first experiment, contingency reduction was achieved by adding USs to the training protocol (degraded contingency), a phenomenon thought to be independent of behavioral inhibition. In the second experiment, contingency reduction was achieved by varying the percentage of CS-US pairing, a phenomenon thought to be weakly dependent on behavioral inhibition. In the third and fourth experiments, contingency reduction was achieved by adding CSs to the training protocol (partial reinforcement), a phenomenon thought to be completely dependent on behavioral inhibition. We found that none of these reduced contingency effects was impaired by nifedipine. In a final experiment, we found that extinction conducted 1 or 3 h post-acquisition, but not immediately, was LVGCC-dependent. Taken together, the results suggest that reduced contingency effects and extinction depend on different molecular mechanisms and that LVGCC dependence of behavioral inhibition develops with time after associative CS-US learning.     

Secondary task difficulty modulates forward blocking in human contingency learning

The influence of a secondary task on forward blocking of human contingency ratings was examined. A smaller blocking effect was found when participants performed a highly demanding secondary task than when they performed a less demanding secondary task. The modulatory effect of secondary task difficulty was significant only when the secondary task was administered during both the learning and the test phase of the contingency judgement task. The results suggest that forward blocking in human contingency learning cannot be fully accounted for by associative processes. Instead, forward blocking seems to depend at least partially on deliberate deductive reasoning processes.     

Acquisition functions in contingency judgment

Two experiments investigated the way in which judgments of the extent to which an action caused an outcome changed as more experience of the actionoutcome contingency was presented. In the first experiment judgments increased across trials when there was a positive contingency and decreased when there was a negative contingency. In noncontingent situations judgments were biased by the overall probability of the outcome. In the second experiment the changes across trials under positive and negative contingencies persisted even when the subjects were given the opportunity to dissociate their causality judgments from their degree of confidence in those judgments. The results are at variance with the dP and dD theories which attempt to account for causality judgments in terms of statistical rules based on the probabilities or frequencies of the relevant events. If such theories were modified, however, to take account of the regression of the subjects' estimates onto the actual probabilities or frequencies, then the data could be accommodated. On the other hand, a simple associative view is also able to account for the data.     

The role of outcome inhibition in interference between outcomes: A contingency‐learning analogue of retrieval‐induced forgetting

Current associative theories of contingency learning assume that inhibitory learning plays a part in the interference between outcomes. However, it is unclear whether this inhibitory learning results in the inhibition of the outcome representation or whether it simply counteracts previous excitatory learning so that the outcome representation is neither activated nor inhibited. Additionally, these models tend to conceptualize inhibition as a relatively transient and cue‐dependent state. However, research on retrieval‐induced forgetting suggests that the inhibition of representations is a real process that can be relatively independent of the retrieval cue used to access the inhibited information. Consistent with this alternative view, we found that interference between outcomes reduces the retrievability of the target outcome even when the outcome is associated with a novel (non‐inhibitory) cue. This result has important theoretical implications for associative models of interference and shows that the empirical facts and theories developed in studies of retrieval‐induced forgetting might be relevant in contingency learning and vice versa.     

Evaluative conditioning of high-novelty stimuli does not seem to be based on an automatic form of associative learning

Evaluative conditioning (EC) refers to the change in valence of initially neutral stimuli (conditioned stimuli, or CSs) as a result of their pairing with positive or negative stimuli (unconditioned stimuli, or USs). EC is critical to dual-attitudes models as it is often presented as an evaluative effect that results from a purely automatic form of associative learning. Although evidence suggests that EC does not occur without contingency awareness, Ruys, and Stapel (2009) recently argued that contingency awareness is unnecessary for high-novelty stimuli. Researchers may thus be tempted to conclude that EC rests on an automatic form of associative learning, at least for CSs associated with little prior evaluative knowledge. Taking issue with this claim, the present study reveals that EC of high-novelty stimuli is dependent on attentional resources. The role of contingency awareness in EC of high-novelty stimuli is also discussed.     

Predictions and causal estimations are not supported by the same associative structure

Studies performed by different researchers have shown that judgements about cue-outcome relationships are systematically influenced by the type of question used to request those judgements. It is now recognized that judgements about the strength of the causal link between a cue and an outcome are mostly determined by the cue-outcome contingency, whereas predictions of the outcome are more influenced by the probability of the outcome given the cue. Although these results make clear that those different types of judgement are mediated by some knowledge of the normative differences between causal estimations and outcome predictions, they do not speak to the underlying processes of these effects. The experiment presented here reveals an interaction between the type of question and the order of trials that challenges standard models of causal and predictive learning that are framed exclusively in associative terms or exclusively in higher order reasoning terms. However, this evidence could be easily explained by assuming the combined intervention of both types of process.     

Implications of statistical power for confidence intervals

The statistical power of a hypothesis test is closely related to the precision of the accompanying confidence interval. In the case of a z-test, the width of the confidence interval is a function of statistical power for the planned study. If minimum effect size is used in power analysis, the width of the confidence interval is the minimum effect size times a multiplicative factor φ. The index φ, or the precision-to-effect ratio, is a function of the computed statistical power. In the case of a t-test, statistical power affects the probability of achieving a certain width of confidence interval, which is equivalent to the probability of obtaining a certain value of φ. To consider estimate precision in conjunction with statistical power, we can choose a sample size to obtain a desired probability of achieving a short width conditional on the rejection of the null hypothesis.     

Intuitive<Emphasis Type="Italic">t</Emphasis> tests: Lay use of statistical information

Normatively, a statistical pairwise comparison is a function of the mean, standard deviation (SD), and sample size of the data. In our experiment, 203 undergraduates compared product pairs and judged their confidence that one product was better than the other. We experimentally manipulated (within subjects) the average product ratings, the number of raters (sample size), and theSD of the ratings. Each factor had two levels selected, so that the same change in statistical power resulted from moving from the low to the high level. We also manipulated (between subjects) whether subjects were given only the product rating data as summarized in a statistical format or the summaries plus the raw ratings. Subjects gave the most weight to mean product ratings, less weight to sample size, and very little weight toSD. Providing subjects with raw data did not increase their use of sample size andSD, as predicted.     

Neural temporal dynamics of contingency judgement

The present study captures the dynamics of neural processing across positively contingent, negatively contingent, and noncontingent relations. In the setting of a hypothetical chat room conversation, participants rated the contingency of emotional response between two individuals. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were time-locked to the onset of each emotional event. Although each event alone was ambiguous regarding contingency, its neural response was characteristic of the overall contingent relation and the subsequent contingency rating. Very early displays of contingency modified the ERP anterior N1 (AN1) component amplitude. In contrast, the ERP selection negativity (SN) component amplitude seemed to be more sensitive to display properties than contingency. Our results point to the recruitment of early attentional processes for contingency judgement and highlight the efficiency of statistical information processing.     

Neural temporal dynamics of contingency judgement

The present study captures the dynamics of neural processing across positively contingent, negatively contingent, and noncontingent relations. In the setting of a hypothetical chat room conversation, participants rated the contingency of emotional response between two individuals. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were time-locked to the onset of each emotional event. Although each event alone was ambiguous regarding contingency, its neural response was characteristic of the overall contingent relation and the subsequent contingency rating. Very early displays of contingency modified the ERP anterior N1 (AN1) component amplitude. In contrast, the ERP selection negativity (SN) component amplitude seemed to be more sensitive to display properties than contingency. Our results point to the recruitment of early attentional processes for contingency judgement and highlight the efficiency of statistical information processing.     

时变效应模型及在密集追踪数据分析中的应用

密集追踪数据通常蕴含了心理过程的详细变化信息,反映了某些心理的复杂变化过程。时变效应模型用函数替代恒定的系数,可描述密集追踪数据中随时间推移心理的动态变化过程和时变效应,是分析复杂心理过程的有效方法。在介绍时变效应模型的原理后,通过模拟研究考察模型的表现,结果显示:(1)样本量增加可降低函数估计的误差;(2)惩罚样条法的节点数选择与函数的复杂度有关,函数越复杂,所需节点越多;(3)样本量与节点数对函数估计误差的交互效应不显著。进一步应探讨测量次数、数据分布形态、数据缺失等如何影响模型的表现。     

Cue interaction effects in causal judgement: An interpretation in terms of the evidential evaluation model

In judging the extent to which a cue causes an outcome, judgement can be affected by information about other cues that are correlated with the one being judged. These cue interaction effects have usually been interpreted in terms of associative learning processes. I propose that a different model of causal judgement, the evidential evaluation model, offers a viable alternative interpretation of cue interaction phenomena. Under the evidential evaluation model, instances of contingency information are interpreted as evidence, which is confirmatory, disconfirmatory, or irrelevant for the cue being judged. When two cues co-occur in a set of instances the evidential value of the instances for one of them is determined by three factors: the proportion of confirming instances in the set; disambiguation value, which concerns the relation between the set of information and prior beliefs about the co-occurring cue; and confirmation value, which concerns the relation between the set of information and prior beliefs about the cue being judged. Any previous judgement of the cue is then modified in the light of these. It is shown that this model can account for all the cue interaction phenomena that have been investigated in studies of human causal judgement. The model also generates novel predictions, and the results of three experiments give support to these predictions. It is also shown that several other current models of causal judgement fail to predict a key result from Experiment 3.     

Age differences in associative and strategic processes in human conditional learning

Research indicates associative and strategic deficits mediate age related deficits in memory, whereas simple associative processes are independent of strategic processing and strategic processes mediate resistance to interference. The present study showed age-related deficits in a contingency learning task, although older participants' resistance to interference was not disproportionately affected. Recognition memory predicted discrimination, whereas general cognitive ability predicted resistance to interference, suggesting differentiation between associative and strategic processes in learning and memory, and age declines in associative processes. Older participants' generalisation of associative strength from existing to novel stimulus–response associations was consistent with elemental learning theories, whereas configural models predicted younger participants' responses. This is consistent with associative deficits and reliance on item-level representations in memory during later life.     

Overshadowed cues have reduced ability to retroactively interfere with other cues

The present series of experiments explores the interaction between retroactive interference and cue competition in human contingency learning. The results of two experiments show that a cue that has been exposed to a cue competition treatment (overshadowing) loses part of its ability to retroactively interfere with responding to a different cue that was paired with the same outcome. These results pose problems for associative models of contingency learning and are also difficult to explain in terms of current theories of causal reasoning. Additionally, it is proposed that in light of the interaction between interference and cue competition, interference could be used as an indirect measure for the study of cue competition effects.