主观概率判断中次可加性的三因素实验研究

采用三因素完全随机实验探究主观概率判断是否满足次可加性规律,结果表明:(1)分解方式、分解数量和分解事例的典型性等三个因素对主观概率判断均有显著的影响。(2)次可加性不是一种普遍现象,主观概率判断中也会出现可加性和超可加性:把事件隐分为非典型事例时会出现超可加性,把事件隐分为典型或者典型加非典型性的事例时会出现可加性,而把事件显分时会一致出现次可加性。     

Preferred Difficulty and Subjective Probability in Different Action Phases

Drawing on Gollwitzer's deliberative–implemental mindset distinction (P. M. Gollwitzer, 1990), it was predicted that people who are deliberating on different actions or goals would be more cautious or more realistic in their expectation of success in subsequent tasks than people who are going to implement a chosen action or goal. Participants were given a choice between different test-materials. They were interrupted before (deliberative) or immediately after decision-making (implemental). They then either had to choose between various levels of difficulty within one type of task (Experiment 1) or they had to predict their own future performance (Experiment 2). The results showed that deliberative participants preferred less difficult tasks and overestimated their probability of success less than implemental participants. In addition, deliberative participants referred more than implemental participants to their past performance when selecting levels of difficulty or predicting future performance; however, the two groups did not differ in actual performance. Taken together, the findings suggest that people are more realistic in a deliberative than in an implemental state of mind. The present studies extend prior research because for the first time they document mindset effects on peoples' estimates concerning their future performance in the achievement domain.     

The Insufficiency of the Dutch Book Argument

It is a common view that the axioms of probability can be derived from the following assumptions: (a) probabilities reflect (rational) degrees of belief, (b) degrees of belief can be measured as betting quotients; and (c) a rational agent must select betting quotients that are coherent. In this paper, I argue that a consideration of reasonable betting behaviour, with respect to the alleged derivation of the first axiom of probability, suggests that (b) and (c) are incorrect. In particular, I show how a rational agent might assign a ‘probability’ of zero to an event which she is sure will occur.     

Linda问题:"齐当别"抉择模型的解释

大量有关人类归因判断的研究表明,人类经常违反理性概率公理.Tversky和Kahneman(1983)使用Linda问题等特定场景的研究发现,人们系统性地表现出违反理性推断标准,判断合取事件发生概率大于其组成事件发生概率,称之为合取谬误,并用人们使用代表性启发式判断概率来解释该现象产生的原因.然而使用启发式观点对合取谬误现象进行解释过于模糊不清.该文首先介绍了合取谬误现象及其解释模型,然后应用Li(1994,2004)提出的不确定情形下决策理论--"齐当别"抉择模型对Linda问题中合取谬误产生的原因进行了新的解释.     

Linda问题：“齐当别”抉择模型的解释

大量有关人类归因判断的研究表明,人类经常违反理性概率公理。Tversky和Kahneman（1983）使用Linda问题等特定场景的研究发现,人们系统性地表现出违反理性推断标准,判断合取事件发生概率大于其组成事件发生概率,称之为合取谬误,并用人们使用代表性启发式判断概率来解释该现象产生的原因。然而使用启发式观点对合取谬误现象进行解释过于模糊不清。该文首先介绍了合取谬误现象及其解释模型,然后应用Li（1994,2004）提出的不确定情形下决策理论——“齐当别”抉择模型对Linda问题中合取谬误产生的原因进行了新的解释     

The Interrater Reliability of Subjective Assessments of the Babinski Reflex

The Babinski reflex is a clinical diagnostic tool; however, the interrater reliability of this tool is currently greatly contested. A comparison between rater groups with objective measurements of the Babinski reflex was therefore conducted. Fifteen recorded Babinski reflexes were assessed by 12 neurologists and 12 medical students as being either pathological or nonpathological. Kinematic and electromyographic variables were collected and used to assess which aspects of the Babinski reflex predict classification. Substantial interrater agreement within the neurologist and student groups (κ = .72 and .67, respectively) was shown; however, there were some differing aspects between what neurologists and students used to assess the reflex as determined by objective kinematic measurements.     

Calibration of Subjective Probability Judgments in a Naturalistic Setting

Results of previous calibration studies are used to identify features of the decision maker and the decision environment which might be expected to result in good calibration. Racetrack bettors and, in particular, the UK parimutuel betting market are identified as possessing such characteristics. In order to explore calibration in this setting, an analysis is undertaken of bets placed on 19,396 horses. A close correlation is observed between the subjective probability judgments of horses' success, implicit in the bettors' wagering activities, and the objective probability of success of the horses concerned. Explanations for the results are offered in terms of characteristics of racetrack bettors and the naturalistic setting, with particular reference to the operation of the betting market. The results contribute to an emergent school of thought which advocates naturalistic enquiry as a complement to laboratory-based experiments in further developing the understanding of decision making.     

主观解释的新发展:主体交互解释

主体交互解释是主观解释的发展,它比主观解释具有更为明显的客观性。本文探讨了主体交互概率的测度,主体交互概率形成的条件,主体交互解释与人造客体概率解释一道构造的从主观向完全客观延伸的谱系,以及主体交互解释的恰当性问题。通过探讨这个新近兴起的理论,为人们在确定基本概率时提供了普遍的适用性并使人们避免了主观的随意性。     

ELI: An Interactive Elicitation Technique for Subjective Probability Distributions

Uncertain knowledge about continuous quantities is usually formalized through subjective probability distributions (SPD′s). However, results from past experimental research have often pointed to the rather poor quality of SPD′s. Moreover, previous attempts to improve SPD quality frequently appeared to be only partly successful; overconfidence especially proved to be an exceptionally persistent phenomenon. In the present study, method-induced biases in particular are considered to be responsible for the poor quality of SPD′s, and an alternative means for eliciting uncertain knowledge was designed to meet fundamental quality criteria to a more satisfactory degree. The direct realization of a proper scoring rule in a graphically oriented interactive computer program is one of the central features of this new elicitation technique, ELI. An experiment with 48 subjects was carried out to evaluate ELI performance and to compare it with the performance of (a) an existing elicitation technique and (b) a simple technique that only asks for a best guess and a lower and upper bound. The three techniques were evaluated and compared with respect to their contribution to reliable and valid SPD′s and with respect to their practical usefulness. The results indicated that for ELI the fundamental requirements were realized to a great extent. Furthermore, compared with the two other techniques, ELI performance appeared to be superior. In particular, only with the support of ELI did overconfidence appear to be almost absent.     

时距的短时保持: 缩短还是变长

采用Wearden和Ferrara(1993)的经典方法, 分别考察了1s以下(350 ms~650 ms)和1s以上(1000 ms ~ 2000 ms)不同类型(空、实时距)和通道(视、听)时距的短时保持效应。实验1发现, 不同刺激通道条件下, 1s以下时距的短时保持都呈现出主观缩短, 其中视觉条件比听觉条件明显; 实验2表明, 1s以上时距在不同刺激通道条件下都呈现出主观变长, 其中听觉条件比视觉条件明显。分析表明, 主观缩短趋势可能是由主观缩短效应和正的顺序误差效应共同作用所致, 而主观变长趋势是由主观变长效应和负的顺序误差效应造成的。     

从国内有关研究看经济状况对个体幸福感的影响

通过对国内46篇涉及经济状况与幸福感关系的文献进行统计分析, 经c2检验发现, 大多数研究表明经济状况对幸福感有显著影响, 其中幸福感最低的是经济上相对较差或处于贫困状态的群体; 少数研究显示经济状况对幸福感无显著影响, 其样本来自经济发达省市或是收入有保障的群体; 还有研究表明相对经济状况对幸福感的影响大于绝对经济状况。因此, 改善弱势群体的生存质量, 关注民众非物质需要的满足, 缩小人们之间的收入差距, 将有助于提升我国各阶层民众的幸福感, 促进社会和谐。     

Subjective Well-Being in Midlife: The Role of Involvement of and Closeness to Parents in Childhood

This study used data from the British National Child Development Study to examine the role of parenting in later subjective well-being (SWB). Parenting was defined as mother involvement and father involvement (measured at age 7) and as closeness to mother and closeness to father (measured at age 16). SWB was measured at age 42 and was defined as life satisfaction, psychological functioning (measured with the GHQ-12), and absence of psychological distress (measured with the Malaise Inventory). Control factors were parental social class at birth, parental family structure throughout childhood, domestic tension in the parental home, parental ill mental health in early childhood, psychological maladjustment in adolescence, financial difficulties throughout childhood, educational attainment, self-rated health in early adulthood, and current socio-demographic correlates of SWB (labour force participation, religion and being partnered). It was found that even after adjusting for these factors closeness to mother at age 16 predicted life satisfaction at age 42 in both men and women, whereas mother involvement at age 7 predicted life satisfaction at age 42 in men. Closeness to mother at age 16 was also negatively related to poor psychological functioning at age 42 in women.     

大学生专业内部动机与主观幸福感的关系:专业投入与主观专业成就的中介作用

自我决定理论认为,内部动机是主观幸福感的重要影响因素。为了探究大学生专业内部动机与主观幸福感的内部机制,研究者使用专业内部动机问卷、专业投入问卷、主观专业成就问卷、主观幸福感问卷对3527名在校大学生进行了调查。研究结果表明：（1）专业内部动机正向预测主观幸福感;（2）专业投入在专业内部动机与主观幸福感之间起中介作用;（3） 主观专业成就在专业内部动机与主观幸福感之间起中介作用;（4）专业投入和主观专业成就在专业内部动机和主观幸福感之间起链式中介效应。据此得出结论：专业投入和主观专业成就在专业内部动机和主观幸福感之间起链式中介效应。     

Integrating The Diverse Definitions of Happiness: A Time-Sequential Framework of Subjective Well-Being

The field of subjective well-being (SWB) is primarily concerned with people's evaluation of their lives; however, it includes a wide range of concepts, from momentary moods to global life satisfaction judgments. We propose a framework that integrates these diverse constructs. Our sequential temporal framework of subjective well-being describes experiences of well-being from the events and circumstances that cause evaluative reactions, through the emotional reactions to these events, to recall of these reactions, and finally to global judgments of well-being based on the previous stages. The hypothesized processes that translate the various steps in the sequence into one another are described, and supporting evidence is reviewed. We outline the implications of our framework for understanding subjective well-being, and discuss the research that is needed to further explore the proposed framework.     

大学生主观幸福感的测量研究

本文主要论述了大学生主观幸福感的测量研究的现状及其测量研究的内容,并讨论了大学生主观幸福感的测量研究的发展趋向,旨在为以后的研究提供参考。     

城市居民婚姻状况与主观幸福感关系的初步研究

本文在山东省范围内取样,对我国城市居民婚姻状况与主观幸福感的关系进行了初步研究,得出了与西方研究者不同的结论：从总体上看城市居民中无婚姻生活者主观幸福感高于有婚姻生活者,性别是影响城市居民婚姻状况与主观幸福感关系的重要因素,有婚姻生活的女性比没有婚姻生活的女性体验到更多的幸福感,而男性则恰恰相反。本文认为,在婚姻状况与主观幸福感关系方面表现出来的中西差异,与转型社会的婚姻价值观失衡有关,也反映了某种文化上的差异。     

有关条件推理中概率效应的实验研究

通过预备实验选取了四种不同条件概率的条件规则和四种不同前后件概率组合的条件规则作为实验材料,以大学生为被试,考察了两种概率因素(条件概率和前后件概率)对条件推理的演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)以及变通形式(四卡问题)的影响。结果表明,两种概率因素对四种条件推理的影响都非常显著,研究进一步证实了人们对四种推理的认可程度主要与范畴前提的概率成正比的结论;但概率因素对四卡问题的解决影响不明显。     

大学生性别角色与主观幸福感的关系：自尊的中介作用

以334名大学生为被试,采用问卷法考察大学生性别角色、自尊和主观幸福感的关系。结果发现：（1）大学生性别角色影响主观幸福感,双性化个体的主观幸福感水平最高。（2）自尊是性别角色对大学生主观幸福感影响的中介变量,即性别角色通过自尊对主观幸福感进行影响。因此,为提高大学生的主观幸福感,在教育中应当开展双性化的性别角色教育,同时要提高大学生的自尊水平。     

社会支持对大学生主观幸福感的影响

采用量表法以 3 1 4名大学生为被试研究了社会支持与主观幸福感的关系 ,评估了社会支持对大学生主观幸福感的影响。差异检验表明 ,总体主观幸福感、生活满意度、朋友支持、其他支持以及总的社会支持存在性别上的差异 ,女生的得分均高于男生 ,而在积极情感和消极情感以及家庭支持方面则没有表现出性别差异。回归分析表明 ,社会支持的不同方面对主观幸福感的不同方面产生影响 ;在预测主观幸福感时 ,不同的社会支持指标的预测力是不同的。