追踪研究中的内生性问题：来源与应对

相对于横断研究,追踪研究中更有可能同时存在多种内生性问题来源。双变量追踪研究在心理学因果分析中发挥了重要的作用,然而其中的内生性问题却未得到应有的关注,这可能会影响推论的准确性。追踪研究中内生性问题的来源视乎模型而定,主要包括遗漏变量、变量选择和样本选择、解释变量的测量误差、动态面板和变量之间的相互关系。本文以代表性追踪模型CLPM为例,展示了内生性问题的影响,讨论了在原模型中运用工具变量来建模以应对内生性问题的可行性,目的是使心理学研究者能够关注追踪研究中的内生性问题,更好地运用追踪模型进行因果分析。     

纵向数据的中介效应分析

目前中介效应检验主要是基于截面数据,但许多时候截面数据的中介分析不适合进行因果推断,因而需要收集历时性的纵向数据,进行纵向数据的中介分析。评介了基于交叉滞后面板模型、多层线性模型和潜变量增长模型的纵向数据的中介分析方法及其四个发展。第一,中介效应随时间变化,如连续时间模型、多层时变系数模型。第二,中介效应随个体变化,如随机效应的交叉滞后面板模型和多层自回归模型。第三,中介模型的整合,如交叉滞后面板模型与多层线性模型整合为多层自回归模型。第四,中介检验方法的发展,建议使用Monte Carlo、Bootstrap和贝叶斯法进行纵向数据的中介分析。总结出一个纵向数据的中介分析流程并给出相应的Mplus程序。随后展望了纵向数据的中介分析的拓展方向。     

发展级联:解释个体纵向发展的新视角

发展级联(developmental cascades)近年来已成为发展心理学追踪研究中一种重要的理论视角。其基本观点是:人的发展过程是一个诸多发展特征不断产生级联效应的过程,某个时间点上个体特征的发展状况会对该特征的后续发展产生影响,并影响其他领域的发展,进而影响到个体的整个发展进程。在发展级联的理论观点基础上形成的相关方法学模型,为探究发展系统中多个因素之间的纵向关联提供了方法学依据与指导。本文介绍了发展级联的相关概念、理论基础、主要观点以及相关的方法学问题,并对其在实证研究中的应用进行了展望。     

青少年早期亲社会行为倾向、内化问题和外化问题发展级联的个体内分析

认识亲社会行为倾向、内化问题和外化问题的发展级联对青少年心理健康促进具有重要价值。采用个体内分析方法分析了894名初中生3年的追踪数据, 并与传统的交叉滞后面板模型进行比较。结果发现：(1)在个体内水平, 亲社会行为倾向与内化问题和外化问题具有中等或较弱的协同变化关系, T1亲社会行为倾向可负向预测T2内化问题, T2亲社会行为倾向可负向预测T3外化问题, 具有较弱的预测作用; (2)在女生群体中, T2内化问题可正向预测T3外化问题, 而在男生群体中, 内化问题和外化问题没有相互预测作用; (3)亲社会行为倾向的4个因子(公开的、依从的、情绪的和利他的)可负向预测内化问题, 它们仅在T2可负向预测外化问题, 具有较弱的预测作用; (4)个体内分析方法得到的研究结果与传统交叉滞后分析方法不同, 不同的个体内分析模型得到的研究结果也不同。结论: 青少年早期亲社会行为倾向的发展可降低内化问题和外化问题, 这种作用具有性别差异; 个体内分析方法在青少年心理病理发展研究中具有重要应用价值。     

Opium of the people? National identification predicts well-being over time

Social group membership and its social-relational corollaries, for example, social contact, trust, and support, are prophylactic for health. Research has tended to focus on how direct social interactions between members of small-scale groups (i.e., a local sports team or community group) are conducive to positive health outcomes. The current study provides evidence from a longitudinal cross-cultural sample (N = 6,748; 18 countries/societies) that the prophylactic effect of group membership is not isolated to small-scale groups, and that members of groups do not have to directly interact, or in fact know of each other to benefit from membership. Our longitudinal analyses suggest that national identification (strength of association with the country/society of which one is a citizen) predicts lower anxiety and improved health; national identification was in fact almost as positively predictive of health status as anxiety was negatively predictive. The findings indicate that identification with large-scale groups, like small-scale groups, is palliative, and are discussed in terms of globalization and banal nationalism.     

On the Mathematical Relationship Between Latent Change Score and Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Factor Approaches: Cautions for Inferring Causal Relationship Between Variables

The present paper focuses on the relationship between latent change score (LCS) and autoregressive cross-lagged (ARCL) factor models in longitudinal designs. These models originated from different theoretical traditions for different analytic purposes, yet they share similar mathematical forms. In this paper, we elucidate the mathematical relationship between these models and show that the LCS model is reduced to the ARCL model when fixed effects are assumed in the slope factor scores. Additionally, we provide an applied example using height and weight data from a gerontological study. Throughout the example, we emphasize caution in choosing which model (ARCL or LCS) to apply due to the risk of obtaining misleading results concerning the presence and direction of causal precedence between two variables. We suggest approaching model specification not only by comparing estimates and fit indices between the LCS and ARCL models (as well as other models) but also by giving appropriate weight to substantive and theoretical considerations, such as assessing the justifiability of the assumption of random effects in the slope factor scores.     

睡眠问题在创伤后应激障碍各症状间的独特作用：基于交叉滞后网络分析模型

借助交叉滞后网络的分析方法,探讨睡眠问题在创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)的症状系统中与其他症状的格兰杰因果关系。以经历舟曲泥石流的1460名儿童青少年为研究对象,在灾后3, 15和27个月对其PTSD症状进行测量。交叉滞后网络分析结果显示：3到15个月时的睡眠问题的发出预期影响最高;而15到27个月时与他人疏离和线索引发生理反应的发出预期影响最高。结果表明了睡眠问题对PTSD症状影响的时间特异性,并为儿童青少年的PTSD干预方案和诊断模式提供了启示。     

儿童拒绝敏感性与自我知觉的关系:一项交叉滞后研究

采用儿童拒绝敏感性问卷与儿童自我知觉量表对596名中小学儿童进行了为期一年的追踪调查,通过交叉滞后回归分析考察儿童拒绝敏感性与多种自我知觉间的预测关系。结果发现：（1）自我知觉的年级差异显著,初中儿童的自我知觉水平较低;（2）在两次测量中,拒绝敏感性与多种自我知觉均呈显著的负相关;（3）控制性别、年级以及自身稳定性之后,第一年的多种自我知觉均可以负向预测第二年的拒绝敏感性,而第一年的拒绝敏感性仅可以负向预测第二年的体貌及一般自我知觉;（4）年级调节了拒绝敏感性与一般和行为自我知觉间的纵向关系,并在小学与初中儿童中表现出不同的模式。研究证实自我知觉是儿童拒绝敏感性形成的重要原因之一,为儿童社会认知及心理健康的相关研究提供新的实证依据。     

Does high self-esteem foster narcissism? Testing the bidirectional relationships between self-esteem,narcissistic admiration and rivalry

We examined the longitudinal associations between self-esteem and narcissism in a three-wave panel study (N = 557). In a standard cross-lagged panel model, self-esteem had a positive bidirectional relationship with narcissistic admiration. Narcissistic rivalry predicted increases in narcissistic admiration, but the corresponding reciprocal cross-lagged effect was not significant, nor were the cross-lagged associations between self-esteem and narcissistic rivalry. However, a random-intercept cross-lagged panel model (which partitions between- and within-person variance) failed to identify significant cross-lagged relationships between self-esteem and admiration or rivalry. Rather, self-esteem correlated positively with narcissistic admiration (but not rivalry) only at the trait level. Furthermore, we observed positive bidirectional associations between admiration and rivalry, suggesting that the within-person fluctuations in these two sub-dimensions of narcissism mutually reinforce each other.     

儿童拒绝敏感性与自我知觉的关系:一项交叉滞后研究

采用儿童拒绝敏感性问卷与儿童自我知觉量表对596名中小学儿童进行了为期一年的追踪调查,通过交叉滞后回归分析考察儿童拒绝敏感性与多种自我知觉间的预测关系。结果发现：（1）自我知觉的年级差异显著,初中儿童的自我知觉水平较低;（2）在两次测量中,拒绝敏感性与多种自我知觉均呈显著的负相关;（3）控制性别、年级以及自身稳定性之后,第一年的多种自我知觉均可以负向预测第二年的拒绝敏感性,而第一年的拒绝敏感性仅可以负向预测第二年的体貌及一般自我知觉;（4）年级调节了拒绝敏感性与一般和行为自我知觉间的纵向关系,并在小学与初中儿童中表现出不同的模式。研究证实自我知觉是儿童拒绝敏感性形成的重要原因之一,为儿童社会认知及心理健康的相关研究提供新的实证依据。     

大学新生的羞怯、自尊与网络依赖的关系：交叉滞后分析

对361名大一新生进行为期3个月的追踪测量,以考察羞怯、自尊与网络依赖的发展变化及相互关系。结果发现：（1）大一新生的羞怯、自尊和网络依赖的水平具有一定程度的横向稳定性。（2）羞怯与网络依赖正相关,自尊与网络依赖负相关。（3）T1的网络依赖正向预测T2的羞怯,T2的羞怯正向预测T3的网络依赖;T1和T2的网络依赖分别负向预测T2和T3的自尊。结论：羞怯与网络依赖之间存在恶性循环,并且网络依赖会导致自尊水平的下降。