Factors influencing the use of internal summary evaluations versus external information in choice

Decision makers cope with more demanding tasks by shifting their cognitive strategies, balancing effort expenditure against the desire to produce an accurate response. In choice tasks, one method for reducing effort while simultaneously maintaining accuracy is to shift from a reliance on information obtained from the external environment to that retrieved from memory, particularly summary evaluations (i.e. relatively stable evaluative reactions to the overall attractiveness of individual alternatives) acquired from previous decision-making experience. We examined four factors that should all encourage decision makers to rely to some extent on internal summary evaluations rather than external information search: (1) increased external search costs, (2) greater time pressure, (3) increased incentives to make an accurate choice, and (4) increased levels of prior experience with the choice context. Sixty experimental subjects chose their preferred alternative from a set of women's magazines. Decision processes were inferred from verbal protocols, computer-generated search records, and decision times. Only increased external search costs led to a greater reliance on summary evaluations. Although increased time pressure, increased incentives, and increased experience with the context did lead to changes in search and evaluation processes, contrary to initial expectations decision makers did not shift to a greater reliance on summary evaluations. These results suggest that while decision makers do sometimes use summary evaluations as a substitute for external search, this is only one of several mechanisms available for effort reduction. Understanding when and where decision makers rely upon summary evaluations probably requires a broader conceptualization of knowledge structures, particularly a consideration of the knowledge that decision makers possess about different choice strategies and their effectiveness.     

Information Displays and Choice Processes: Differential Effects of Organization,Form, and Sequence

This paper examines the differential influence of three features of information display on decision makers′ choice processes: (1) the organization of individual items of information into patterns or structures (matrices or lists), (2) the form of individual items (numbers or words), and (3) the sequence in which items or groups of items appear within the organization (sorted or random). Sixty MBA students chose the best alternative from sets of eight loan applications described on four relevant attributes. Subjects′ decision processes were inferred from verbal protocols and decision times. Each display feature had a distinctive influence on choice processes: Organization strongly influenced information acquisition, while form strongly influenced information combination and evaluation. Sequence had only a limited effect on information acquisition. All three display features influenced the effort expended by decision makers, with the largest effect due to organization. While organization also influenced decision makers′ self-reports of effort, there were inconsistencies between perceived and actual effort expenditure. These results have implications for understanding how decision makers respond adaptively to differences in information displays.     

The seat belt paradox: Effect of adopted roles on information seeking

This paper shows that societal decision makers may take different decisions than individual decision makers, not because they are different people or possess different knowledge, but just because their adopted roles lead them to frame the decision problem in a different way. The decision problem studied in this investigation was related to the use of seat belts. Two groups, both drawn from the same student population, were told that they were to adopt the role of a parent deciding about the installation of seat belts, or of a government minister deciding whether to impose wearing seat belts. Due to the induced difference in frames, the two groups differed in their preference for type of information. The parents accepted anecdotal information almost as much as statistical information; ministers rejected anecdotal information and had a strong preference for statistical information.     

The general model and the particular decision: decision makers' awareness of their cue weightings

This paper examines the accuracy with which decision makers can predict the effects of the characteristics of a research study on their evaluations of its usefulness to their work. It draws on survey data from a sample of 155 decision makers in mental health: each of them predicted the effects of 26 research characteristics on usefulness and rated each of two research studies on usefulness and the extent to which each characteristic described the study. The principal finding is that decision makers' predictions of the effects of characteristics on usefulness correspond much more closely to the effects actually observed when these effects are calculated across individuals than when they are taken for a single individual rating one (or two) studies. After examining several alternative explanations, it is suggested that an individual decision maker uses multiple evaluation functions to judge research, weighting the characteristics differently in each, and that investigators should consider the possibility of such variation whenever they attempt to model individuals' evaluation functions.     

A Meta-Analytic Method for Testing Hypotheses about Clusters of Decision Makers

Meta-analytic methods are adapted to the task of testing hypotheses about clusters of decision makers, and an empirical illustration of these methods is presented. These methods have a number of advantages. Meta-analytic methods enable the researcher to (a) hypothesize about factors which influence cue weights and empirically test their moderating influences, (b) estimate the true relative weight from the observed relative weight after correcting for statistical artifacts, and (c) partition the variability in the observed relative weights across decision makers into variability across decision makers caused by variations in the true relative weights and the variability across decision makers caused by statistical artifacts. Finally, these methods facilitate integration of the results of individual studies without the necessity for the raw data employed in the individual studies.     

Cognitions and behavior in asymmetric social dilemmas: a comparison of two cultures

This study investigated whether cognitions and behavior in an asymmetric social dilemma can be predicted by national culture. Results indicated that, as predicted, groups of decision makers from Japan--a collectivist, hierarchical culture-were more cooperative, expected others to be more cooperative, and were more likely to adopt an equal allocation distribution rule to resolve the dilemma than were groups of decision makers from the United States-an individualist, egalitarian culture. An opportunity for communication had a greater impact on expectations of others' behavior in groups of U.S. decision makers than in groups of Japanese decision makers.     

风险决策中的双参照点效应

以预期理论为代表的决策理论认为, 决策者自身的损益状态对风险决策有重要作用, 因此, 将决策者的现状定义为个人参照点。它决定了决策情境是个人获益还是个人损失。个人参照点直接关乎决策者实际的得失, 具有直接性、真实性和绝对性的特征。然而, 社会比较理论认为, 与他人的比较结果同样对风险决策具有不可忽视的意义。因此, 将他人的状态定义为社会参照点。自身的现状与他人状态相比较的结果决定了决策情境是社会获益还是社会损失。社会参照点无关决策者的实际得失, 具有间接性、假设性和相对性的特征。社会参照点通过自我概念、情绪、认知等路径作用于风险决策。更为重要的是, 社会参照点和个人参照点同时存在于风险决策过程中, 决策者对两者的心理感受和行为倾向具有相似性, 因此两者将共同影响决策者的风险选择。基于此, 本文提出风险决策中的双参照点效应。有关双参照点对风险决策过程的影响机制还需进一步的探讨。     

Iowa Gambling Task Modified for Military Domain

One key component of optimal military decision making is that the decision maker demonstrates reinforcement learning. The modification of psychological tasks gives insight into understanding how to effectively train military decision makers and how experienced decision makers arrive at optimal or near optimal decisions. We developed a task modeled after the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) to measure military decision making performance. This new task focuses on high stakes and uncertain environments particular to military decision making conditions. Thirty-four U.S. military officers from all branches of service completed the tasks yielding decision data for validation. The new task retains essential characteristics of the foundational task and gives insight into reinforcement learning of military decision makers. Results indicate that the additional metric of regret defines higher performance at a trial-by-trial level, and clustering by multiple metrics defines high performance groups.     

The effects of predictive ability information,locus of control,and decision maker involvement on decision aid reliance

This study examines several factors that influence decision makers' willingness to rely on mechanical decision aids. The first experiment examined the effects of predictive ability information and locus of control on decision aid reliance. The results indicate that decision makers were more likely to rely on a decision aid when its predictive validity was not disclosed. Further, decision makers with an external locus of control relied more on the decision aid than those with an internal locus of control. The second experiment expanded upon this result to examine the interactive effects of decision maker involvement and locus of control. The results suggest that involving decision makers in the aid's development enhanced reliance. However, decision makers with an internal locus of control were more strongly influenced by this form of involvement (in terms of increasing their reliance on the decision aid) than decision makers with an external locus of control. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

管理评价判断模型与策略获取

管理评价是在不确定情景中的一种多特征决策,非补偿策略是决策者所采用的主导判断模型。作为一种结构建模程序,策略捕捉可以建构包含决策标准及其权重的统计模型,获取决策内在过程和预测判断。多层线性模型能够方便地考察人内和人间变异,表征判断非线性结构,是分析策略捕捉数据的恰当方法。管理评价设计可以借鉴行为经济学和实验经济学的思路,实现对现实管理决策过程的抽象模拟。     

Nudge to Health: Harnessing Decision Research to Promote Health Behavior

We review selected literature that examines how biases in decision making can be utilized to encourage individual health behavior, such as vaccination, and promote policy decisions, such as resource allocation. These studies use simple interventions to nudge people towards more optimal health decisions without restricting decision‐makers’ freedom of choice. Examples include framing effects, defaults, implementation intentions, position effects, social norm, incentives, and emotions. We suggest that nudges are an effective way to promote healthy behavior.     

Context effects on group-based employee selection decisions

The decoy effect occurs when preferences between two alternatives reverse as a result of the manipulation of a third alternative (i.e., a decoy) such that it is dominated by only one of the two original alternatives. Previous research has demonstrated this effect in employee selection decisions, but only when decisions were made by individuals. The present investigation was designed to test the generalizability of the phenomenon to decisions made by groups, and to determine the influence of process and outcome accountability on the decoy effect. Results showed that the overall decoy effect held for both individual and group decisions. However, for both individuals and groups, the decoy effect held only when decision makers knew they would have to justify their decision processes.     

Leader-focused search: The impact of an emerging preference on information search

This article examines the influence an emerging preference (i.e., a leader) has on predecisional information search. We explore two possibilities. First, decision makers may seek information they expect will support their leader (leader-supporting search). Second, decision makers may seek information about their leader, irrespective of the expected valence of the information (leader-focused search). Across various studies, product domains and experimental designs, we consistently find that decision makers engage in leader-focused search, not leader-supporting search. We also find that leader-focused search can steer decision makers towards information sources that are less important, less credible, and objectively suboptimal.     

Decision Making under Strict Uncertainty: An Experimental Test of Competitive Criteria

In decisions under strict uncertainty individual decision makers have to choose one of a finite number of alternatives with complete information about their outcomes but in the absence of any information about the probabilities of the various states of nature. We report two experiments with multiple decision tasks in which subjects were instructed to rank the alternatives (Experiment 1), or choose the best one (Experiment 2). We test the major decision rules (criteria) which have been proposed for this case in the normative literature with special attention on Hurwicz′s "optimism-pessimism" criterion which is the only one that can accommodate individual differences. Although none of the criteria can account for the results of the majority of the subjects, choices made by a sizable minority of the subjects′ are consistent with Hurwicz′s model. There is no evidence for a systematic relationship between the model′s single "optimism-pessimism" parameter (inferred form choices) and, independently derived, individual measures of optimism (obtained from responses to personality scales). We conclude with a discussion of the difficulty of experimentally implementing strict uncertainty.     

人工智能决策的公平感知

不平等问题是全球社会和经济发展需要应对的首要挑战,也是实现全球可持续发展目标的核心障碍。人工智能(artificial intelligence, AI)为缓解不平等、促进社会公平提供了新的途径。然而,新近研究发现,即使客观上AI决策具有公平性和准确性,个体仍可能对AI决策的公平感知较低。因此,近年来越来越多的研究开始关注AI决策公平感知的影响因素。然而,目前研究较为分散,呈现出研究范式不统一、理论不清晰和机制未厘清等特征。这既不利于跨学科的研究对话,也不利于研究者和实践者对AI决策公平感知形成系统性理解。基于此,通过系统的梳理,现有研究可以划分为两类:(1) AI单一决策的公平感知研究,主要聚焦于AI特征和个体特征如何影响个体对AI决策的公平感知;(2) AI-人类二元决策的公平感知研究,主要聚焦于对比个体对AI决策与人类决策公平感知的差异。在上述梳理基础上,未来研究可以进一步探索AI决策公平感知的情绪影响机制等方向。     

Holistic Information Integration in Child Decision Making

Weighted‐additive (WADD) strategies require decision makers to integrate multiple values weighted by their relevance. From what age can children make choices in line with such a WADD‐strategy? We compare multi‐attribute decisions of children (6–7; 8–10; 11–12‐year‐olds) with adults in an open information‐board environment without pre‐decisional information search. In two experiments, we classify decision strategies based on individual choice patterns and find that in all age groups the majority of participants are users of a WADD‐strategy. Simple decision heuristics such as lexicographic strategies were applied rarely by children and not at all by adults. In two additional follow‐up studies, we further investigate the underlying process of WADD‐application by analysing decision latencies in combination with a retrospective think‐aloud study. Results suggest that children did not apply WADD‐strategies in a deliberate fashion in our experiments. Overall, our findings demonstrate that the ability to make good and quick decisions by holistically integrating information is already present in young children. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contextual effects on escalation processes in public sector decision making

The present study examined escalation bias in the context of public sector decision making. Four factors were considered: responsibility (high or low), decision alternative (reserve fund or other sponsor), decision framing (positive or negative), and mood (positive or neutral). In contrast to previous research, it was demonstrated that following a setback, some decision alternatives elicited escalation among low-responsibility decision makers. Other decision alternatives elicited escalation among high-responsibility decision makers. This interaction between personal responsibility and decision alternative was also moderated by the manner in which decision feedback was framed. That is, when feedback was negatively framed, the effects of decision alternatives were negated—resulting in allocation patterns consistent with previous escalation research. The study also addressed the potential role of the individual's affective state on escalation. The importance of decision context, framing influences, and individual differences on escalation conflicts is discussed.