Multi-attribute decision support and complexity: An evaluation and process analysis of aided versus unaided decision making

The present study addresses the effectiveness of a computerized decision aid (DECAID, Pitz 1987) based on the Multi-Attribute Utility Model (MAU). The effectiveness of DECAID was investigated for personnel selection problems varying in complexity (number of alternatives and number of attributes). Results show that the decision aid was most successful for problems of medium complexity. DECAID significantly affected the thoroughness of the decision, preference formation, and the perceived difficulty of the decision problem for medium complex problems. This was not the case for highly complex problems. Next, a process analysis is presented of unaided decision making focusing on the selection and evaluation of information. This process analysis of verbal protocols was based on the same decision problems as the first study. Results indicate that problem complexity had a significant impact on the decision process. Increasing complexity resulted in a less thorough evaluation, and selective information processing. Subjects tended to focus on one or two most promising alternatives. Furthermore, evaluation strategies diverged from those used in DECAID in terms of standard of comparison. The paper concludes with implications for the design of decision aids.     

MAU程序和自由讨论的群体决策质量比较

采用实验室研究方法,比较了在信启、不分享条件下多特征效用模型(MAU)决策程序和自由讨论对群体决策质量的影响,并对影响MAU决策质量的主要因素进行了初步探讨。结果发现：(1)MAU程序可以较好地克服群体动力学方面的一些消极影响,表现出挖掘信息(尤其是非分享信息)的充分性。但MAU程序在被试的态度和社会交互作用等心理效标上并未显示出优势;(2)在MAU条件下,群体规模的增大对分享和非分享信息的讨论量无显著影响。而任务难度效应要和群体规模一起才能起到作用。     

The Effect of a Computerized Decision Aid on the Development of Knowledge

This study provides evidence on how the use of a computerized decision aid affects knowledge acquisition. While the intent of such computer-based decision aids is to improve and support unaided human judgments, it is unclear whether the use of the aids actually facilitate knowledge transfer. Seventy-six subjects completed a hypothetical decision task where one of two types of decision aids was used: an expert system or traditional textual materials. Results suggest that those using a computer-based decision aid acquired and encoded in memory less declarative knowledge than those using textual reference materials. Implications of the findings are discussed.     

The impact of task complexity on information use in multi-attribute decision making

This study presents a process analysis of multi-attribute decision making. The decision problems concerned the selection of the most suitable candidate for a job opening. The problems varied in terms of complexity, i.e. the number of candidates and the number of attributes used to describe these alternatives. Results show that with an increasing number of alternatives, subjects (N = 48) used fewer attributes for the evaluation of alternatives, and made, on average, less references to the alternatives. The type of judgment most often used was absolute dimensional (comparison of an attribute to an absolute standard) and was used more often at the beginning than toward the end of the decision process. Overall, judgments were predominantly positive. The percentage of positive judgments decreased with increasing complexity, and toward the end of the decision process. Significantly more judgments, particularly positive ones, concerned the finally chosen alternative as compared to the rest of the alternatives. Finally, analysis of subjects' usage of decision rules revealed that increasing the number of alternatives resulted in an increasing use of elimination strategies. Implications of these findings for the design of decision aids will be discussed.     

The relations between knowledge,search strategy,and performance in unaided and aided information search

Information search is a critical step in resolving complex issues in many different decision-making domains. This study examines the relations between knowledge, search strategy, and performance in both unaided and aided information search. The results of an experiment indicates that (a) task-relevant knowledge is directly related to performance in aided but not in unaided information search; (b) in unaided information search, search strategy mediates the relation between knowledge and performance; that is, knowledge indirectly affects performance through its effect on search strategy; and (c) an information search aid moderates both the relation between knowledge and search strategy and the relation between search strategy and performance. These findings highlight the importance and the roles of task-relevant technical knowledge and search strategy in explaining information search performance and are most likely to apply to complex, knowledge-intensive domains in which decision makers search large databases to resolve issues.     

MAU决策辅助对个体与群体决策质量的影响

本研究用实验室研究方法对 MAU决策辅助对个体和群体决策质量的影响进行了比较研究 ,结果表明 :(1 )使用 MAU决策辅助时 ,群体决策不仅在信息利用上优于个体决策 ,而且在多数心理效标上也占优势 ;(2 )在 MAU方法的利用效率上 ,只在任务较难时 ,群体决策更优于个体决策 ,且群体决策时间明显长于个体决策 ;(3 )不使用 MAU决策辅助时 ,个体决策和群体决策在心理效标上无显著差异 ,但群体决策在信息加工效标上优于个体决策。     

Do medical decision analyses' largest gains grow from the smallest trees?

Some decision analysts recommend reserving their models for careful, complete study of complex problems. Others believe simple problem analyses provide the greatest gains. To clarify these issues, I tested: (1) whether simple published analyses compared to complex ones, produced results as non-intuitive; and (2) whether non-intuitiveness represented analytic gain (or equivalently, intuitive loss). Very limited data also examined (3) the gain from adding model intricacy for a given problem vs. selecting more complex problems for analysis. To assess two non-intuitiveness measures, 75 subjects (33 physicians and 42) non-physicians stated their intuitive preferences in 40 (22 published and 18 unpublished) medical dilemmas. For both physicians and non-physicians, simpler models (those with lees than 30 terminal branches in the decision tree) had about one third the non-intuitiveness of more complex ones. Three tests also supported the premise that analyses outperform intuition, therefore that on average the formers' non-intuitiveness reflects less analytic gain. In addition, for different models of the same problem, tree complexity did not correlate with gain. Thus, simpler trees may not generally gain less because they inadequately describe problems. Instead, simpler analyses may represent simpler problems, with more similar intuitive and formal solutions. If so, these findings may help us avoid some costly but unnecessary simple analyses.     

Children's decision strategies and their adaptation to task characteristics

Recent research has established decision making as an important type of strategic problem solving. From this perspective, the present paper examines strategic decision behavior in children and, in particular, the ability to adapt decision strategies to task characteristics. Twelve-year-olds' strategies were identified through analyses of information search patterns with different-sized matrices of information. Using a similar procedure, Payne (1976, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16, 366–387) found that adults shifted to more efficient (but less “optimal”) strategies as task complexity increased. The present study indicates that, by 12 years of age, children understand many of the basic concepts of strategic decision making, such as compensation and elimination, and, like adults, they modify their strategies appropriately in response to complexity. However, their behavior differs from that reported for adults in that the distinctions among specific decision strategies are not clear cut, and there is frequent use of less demanding, cost-cutting strategies even with smaller decision tasks. Memory capacity and topic interest also affect decision strategy. The results support the feasibility of further developmental study of decision strategies. Analytical techniques developed here for use with children may profitably be applied in studies with adults as well.     

The effects of predictive ability information,locus of control,and decision maker involvement on decision aid reliance

This study examines several factors that influence decision makers' willingness to rely on mechanical decision aids. The first experiment examined the effects of predictive ability information and locus of control on decision aid reliance. The results indicate that decision makers were more likely to rely on a decision aid when its predictive validity was not disclosed. Further, decision makers with an external locus of control relied more on the decision aid than those with an internal locus of control. The second experiment expanded upon this result to examine the interactive effects of decision maker involvement and locus of control. The results suggest that involving decision makers in the aid's development enhanced reliance. However, decision makers with an internal locus of control were more strongly influenced by this form of involvement (in terms of increasing their reliance on the decision aid) than decision makers with an external locus of control. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does Time Constraint on Users Negate the Efficacy of Decision Support Systems?

Time constraint can impair decision performance: time-constrained decision makers process information faster, process less information, and use less rigorous decision strategies. On the other hand, properly designed decision support systems (DSSs) can induce decision makers to process more information and use more rigorous decision strategies, which can result in enhanced performance. In this study, we investigate, drawing on bounded rationality and cost-benefit theories of DSS use, whether these salutary effects of DSSs still hold in time-constrained environments. Our experimental results replicate past research regarding the effects of time constraint and DSSs taken separately and also show that the positive effects of DSSs are maintained when decision makers are under time constraint. That is, consistent with hypotheses, time-constrained participants processed information in a more compensatorylike manner when aided by DSSs than when not. Some of the results suggest that the negative effects of time constraint can be mitigated or even eliminated by the use of DSSs, but some participants did not take full advantage of the DSS to combat time constraint.     

Inducing compensatory information processing through decision aids that facilitate effort reduction: an experimental assessment

This paper examines the role of computer‐based decision aids in reducing cognitive effort and therefore influencing strategy selection. It extends and complements the work reported in the behavioral decision theory literature on the role of effort and accuracy in choice tasks. The central proposition of the research is that if a decision aid makes a strategy that should lead to a more accurate outcome at least as easy to employ as a simpler, but less accurate, heuristic, then the use of a decision aid should induce that more accurate strategy and as a consequence improve decision quality. Otherwise, a decision aid may only influence decision‐making efficiency. This occurs because decision makers use a decision aid in such a way as to minimize their overall level of effort expenditure. Results from a laboratory experiment support this proposition. When a more accurate normative strategy is made less effortful to use, it is used. This result is consistent with the findings of our prior studies, but more clearly demonstrates that decision aids can induce the use of normatively oriented strategies. The key to inducing these strategies is to make the normative strategy easier to execute than competing alternative strategies. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reproductive Decision Support: Preferences and Needs of Couples at Risk for Hereditary Cancer and Clinical Geneticists

For couples at high risk of transmitting a cancer predisposition to offspring, reproductive decision-making can be challenging. As the choice between available reproductive options is preference-sensitive, the use of a decision aid can support these couples in their decisional process. The present study aims to investigate preferences and needs of involved stakeholders regarding the development and implementation of a patient decision aid. Semi-structured interviews assessing the needs and preferences regarding the content and functionalities of a decision support program were conducted among seven couples at risk for hereditary cancer and among eight clinical geneticists involved in oncogenetic counseling. Many similarities were found between the expressed preferences and needs of both stakeholder groups concerning the content, barriers and facilitating factors regarding the use of the decision aid, and its implementation. Emphasis was placed on the use of simple non-medical language, an extensive explanation of the procedures and techniques used in prenatal diagnosis (PND) and preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), and the role of health care providers to refer couples to the decision aid. Both stakeholder groups were in favor of incorporating narrative stories in the decision aid. Integrating the present findings with knowledge on reproductive decisional motives and considerations is essential in guiding the development of a decision aid that corresponds to the preferences and needs of end-users. Trial registration: NTR5467     

Alcohol consumption and computer blackjack

The authors considered compliance with a decision aid that E. Thorp (1966) designed to minimize loss in a gambling paradigm under different levels of risk or impairment. Twenty adult men (aged 18-46) completed the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS; H.R. Lesieur & S. B. Blume, 1987) and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT; J. P. Allen, D. E Reinert, & R. J. Volk, 2001) and then played a computer blackjack program before and after ingesting alcohol. The decision aid (online Basic advice) increased players' compliance with optimal play and also increased players willingness to wager more at high stakes. Participants attained a mean peak blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 0.048%. Alcohol increased the rate of play. After consuming alcohol, participants appeared to spend less time on their decisions and were more reliant on support. The authors explained these results in terms of an alcohol-induced myopia that enhances responses to salient cues.     

Predecisional information acquisition: Effects of task variables on suboptimal search strategies

Effective overall performance in judgment tasks generally involves both acquisition of information and integration of the information acquired. When information is costly the decision maker must balance acquisition costs against improved decisional accuracy, a complex balancing problem in which, laboratory evidence suggests, humans often do poorly. The three experiments reported here extend this earlier evidence to different task structures, subject pools, incentive systems, information volumes, decision aids, and kind of data sources. Though each of these factors was found to affect performance, the general finding was of persistent underpurchase (buying less information overall than is optimal) and mispurchase (buying poor sources when better sources are available at the same cost), with significant inflation of overall costs. It is proposed that unaided human judgment is unequal to the complexity of the cost/benefit trade-offs involved in acquiring costly information, and that formal decision analysis should be preferred whenever the stakes justify.     

Choosing Across Cultures: The Effect of Choice Complexity on Treatment Outcomes

Prior research has revealed that having choice over treatments can improve their efficacy. However, it is currently unknown if the benefits of treatment choice hold for complex decisions and different cultures. The effects of differing numbers of treatment options were explored across two cultural contexts: United States and Japan. Participants were exposed to an uncomfortable stimulus and provided with up to 15 placebo treatment options they believed would reduce discomfort. There was a significant interaction such that participants from Japan benefited most from fewer treatment options (2 and 5) compared with more treatment options (10 and 15). Participants from the United States, however, showed either no change in discomfort or less discomfort as the number of choices increased. Additionally, participants from Japan reported less satisfaction with the decision process when they had more treatment options to choose from whereas U.S. participants reported similar, if not slightly higher, satisfaction with more treatment options. Further, a second study indicated that a positive experience with the decision process mediated the relationship between choice complexity and treatment efficacy for Japanese participants. These data demonstrate the importance of culture and choice complexity when discussing treatment choice and resulting outcomes in the medical context. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alcohol Consumption and Computer Blackjack

The authors considered compliance with a decision aid that E. Thorp (1966) designed to minimize loss in a gambling paradigm under different levels of risk or impairment. Twenty adult men (aged 18-46) completed the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS; H.R. Lesieur & S. B. Blume, 1987) and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT; J. P. Allen, D. F. Reinert, & R. J. Volk, 2001) and then played a computer blackjack program before and after ingesting alcohol. The decision aid (online Basic advice) increased players' compliance with optimal play and also increased players' willingness to wager more at high stakes. Participants attained a mean peak blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 0.048%. Alcohol increased the rate of play. After consuming alcohol, participants appeared to spend less time on their decisions and were more reliant on support. The authors explained these results in terms of an alcohol-induced myopia that enhances responses to salient cues.     

The effects of strong belief structures on information-processing evaluations and choice

This study examined the influence of the strength of belief structures on selected aspects of the decision-making process. To examine these issues, a business-acquisition decision scenario was studied in an experiment. Subjects played the role of a CEO of an electronics firm and were asked to evaluate the attractiveness of six potential acquisition candidates and to rate various aspects of the associated decision process. We presented half the subjects with information that the belief structure of their organization was extreme, agreed upon, and clear. The other half was presented with information that there was disagreement about the belief structure and that it was more ambiguous and less extreme. The results clearly showed that the decision process is different for people who were presented with an agreed-upon, extreme, and tightly constructed belief structure when compared to those who received information reflecting a weak and loosely constructed belief structure. A strong belief structure resulted in less positive evaluations, information requested, and money allocated to explore incompatible acquisition candidates (and vice versa for a highly compatible candidate) when compared to subjects using a weak belief structure. In addition, subjects in the strong-belief condition reported that their decision process would be characterized by less doubt, less time, less difficulty, and less conflict compared to subjects in the weak-belief structure condition. Implications for both decision theory and practical decision processes are discussed.     

认知闭合需要与预期后悔对个体职业决策过程的影响

本研究旨在探讨认知闭合需要(NFCC)与预期后悔(AR)对个体职业决策过程的影响。基于两种预期后悔启动方式,采用2(高NFCC,低NFCC)×2(不启动AR,启动AR)的两因素被试间设计完成了两个单独实验。结果表明:(1)不同NFCC个体的职业决策过程存在显著差异,NFCC高的个体付出的认知努力更少;(2)预期后悔显著影响个体的职业决策过程,启动预期后悔条件下个体表现出更为谨慎的决策过程;(3)预期后悔能有效缓冲高NFCC个体的认知闭合过程。     

A Psychometric Analysis of the “Divide and Conquer” Principle in Multicriteria Decision Making

The principle of “Divide and Conquer” (DAC) suggests that: (1) complex decision problems should be decomposed into smaller, more manageable parts and (2) these smaller parts should be logically aggregated to derive an overall value for each alternative. Typically, decompositional procedures have been compared to holistic evaluations that require decision makers to simultaneously consider all of the relevant attributes in the evaluation of the objects under consideration. These comparisons between decompositional and holistic judgments have primarily used a variant of Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT).We presented a general experimental framework that allows for a more extensive assessment of the DAC principle, as well as the effects of decision complexity on both holistic and decompositional procedures. We illustrate this approach with a study that uses the Simple Multiattribute Rating Technique with Swing Weights (SMARTS; Edwards & Barron, 1994) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP; Saaty, 1980). We report data comparing the convergent validity (e.g the agreement between decompositional and holistic strategies) and the temporal stability for decompositional and holistic judgments on a variety of dependent measures. Decision complexity did not significantly affect the correspondence between decompositional and holistic judgments for both SMARTS and AHP judgments. Results from an ordinal measure of temporal stability indicated the DAC principle was violated for the AHP judgments. For a linear measure of temporal stability, trends in the data indicated that the predicted effects of decision complexity on the DAC principle was violated for the SMARTS judgments.