与零假设检验有关的统计分析流程

人们熟知的零假设显著性检验,受到一次次质疑与辩护,地位并未动摇,报告检验结果仍然是统计分析的习惯做法。不过,其局限性促使研究者探寻更多的统计方法如区间估计、效应量分析、检验力分析等。本文先介绍假设检验与置信区间的关系;然后讨论检验力与两类错误率和效应量的关系;最后在理顺上述统计方法的基础上,提供一个可操作的统计分析流程。     

Fisher与Neyman–Pearson的分歧与心理统计中的假设检验争议

假设检验思想的提出者Fisher与Neyman–Pearson在统计模型的方法论基础、两类错误的性质、显著性水平的理解、以及假设检验的功能等方面存在诸多分歧, 使得心理统计中最常用的原假设显著性检验模式呈现出隐含的各种矛盾, 从而引发了应用上的争议。心理统计不仅需要检讨现有检验模型的模糊之处和提出其他补充性的统计推论方式,更应注重反思心理统计的教育传统, 以建立更加开放和多元的统计应用视野, 使心理统计为更好地心理学研究服务。     

Even statisticians are not immune to misinterpretations of Null Hypothesis Significance Tests

We investigated the way experienced users interpret Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) outcomes. An empirical study was designed to compare the reactions of two populations of NHST users, psychological researchers and professional applied statisticians, when faced with contradictory situations. The subjects were presented with the results of an experiment designed to test the efficacy of a drug by comparing two groups (treatment/placebo). Four situations were constructed by combining the outcome of the t test (significant vs. nonsignificant) and the observed difference between the two means D (large vs. small). Two of these situations appeared as conflicting (t significant/D small and t nonsignificant/D large). Three fundamental aspects of statistical inference were investigated by means of open questions: drawing inductive conclusions about the magnitude of the true difference from the data in hand, making predictions for future data, and making decisions about stopping the experiment. The subjects were 25 statisticians from pharmaceutical companies in France, subjects well versed in statistics, and 20 psychological researchers from various laboratories in France, all with experience in processing and analyzing experimental data. On the whole, statisticians and psychologists reacted in a similar way and were very impressed by significant results. It must be outlined that professional applied statisticians were not immune to misinterpretations, especially in the case of nonsignificance. However, the interpretations that accustomed users attach to the outcome of NHST can vary from one individual to another, and it is hard to conceive that there could be a consensus in the face of seemingly conflicting situations. In fact, beyond the superficial report of “erroneous” interpretations, it can be seen in the misuses of NHST intuitive judgmental “adjustments” that try to overcome its inherent shortcomings. These findings encourage the many recent attempts to improve the habitual ways of analyzing and reporting experimental data.     

The Pronoun Attraction Effect for D(iscourse)-Linked Phrases: Evidence from Speakers of a Null Subject Language

Frazier and Clifton (2002) argue that a d(iscourse)-linked wh-phrase such as which boy attracts the reference of a pronoun in a subordinate clause. We translated Frazier and Clifton's materials from English into Romanian. Romanian is a pro-drop language in which null subjects are licensed by person and number agreement on the verb. We found that the d-linking attraction effect held for both pro and overt pronouns in Romanian. The fact that the effect is found for pro provides evidence that the attraction effect is not due to gender matching between the pronoun and the head of the d-linked phrase. We also tested native speakers of Romanian learning English as a second language on Frazier and Clifton's English materials Levels of coreference were highly similar to those for English native speakers and intermediate and advanced learners showed the d-linking attraction effect. We discuss the results in the context of Carminati's (2002) Position of Antecedent Hypothesis, arguing that this hypothesis can account for both the fact that higher levels of coreference with a wh-phrase antecedent were found for pro than for an overt pronoun in Romanian and the fact that the coreference levels between an overt pronoun and the wh-phrase antecedent were not elevated for Romanian-speaking second language learners of English.     

假说逻辑思维素质的培养

随着社会科技的发展和疾病谱的巨大变化,人类健康面临许多困惑和无奈,在此背景下加速医学研究显得日益迫切,发展医学假说就具有了重大的现实意义和迫切需求性,作为高等医学教育有必要探索培养假说逻辑思维素质的有效路径,以满足发展医学事业的需要。     

人格分化的智力假设

人格与智力是个体差异中相互关联的两个重要方面,人格随智力水平的提高而不断分化,智力影响了特定人格维度之间的相关。尽管人格分化的智力假设尚未获得一致性的证据,但它却暗示了智力对人格结构的潜在影响。由于人格测量工具的信度和效度可能因受测者的能力水平而异,因此未来的研究应在使用统一测量工具的基础上,尽量扩大被试的能力范围,采用多重评估或集合评定的方法,使人格测量真正独立于受测者的认知能力。     

A Statistical Hypothesis Testing Method for the Rank Ordering of the Priorities of the Alternatives in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

In analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a ratio scale (π₁, π₂, ⋯, π_t) for the priorities of the alternatives {T₁, T₂, ⋯, T_t} is used for a decision problem in which π_i/π_j is used to quantify the ratio of the priority of T_i to that of T_j. In a group decision‐making setup, the subjective estimates of π_i/π_j are obtained as entries of a pairwise comparison matrix for each member of the group. On the basis of these pairwise comparison matrices, one of the topics of interest in some situation is the total rank ordering of the priorities of the alternatives. In this article, a statistical method is proposed for testing a specific total rank ordering of the priorities of the alternatives. The method developed is then illustrated using numerical examples. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predictors of Irrational Thinking in Regular Slot Machine Gamblers

Previous research has suggested that irrational thinking may play a central role in the maintenance of behavior in slot machine gambling (M. B. Walker, 1992b). The present study is an evaluation of the validity and predictors of irrational thinking in a sample of regular gamblers (N = 20) drawn from the general community. The results were generally consistent with earlier findings; 75% of gambling-related cognitions were found to be irrational. Irrationality was unrelated to the amount of money lost or won during sessions but was positively related to risk taking. The most common irrational cognitions included false beliefs concerning the extent to which outcomes could be controlled or predicted and the attribution of human qualities (personification) to gambling devices. Gender comparisons showed that women were more likely than men to personify the machines. The validity of the speaking-aloud approach and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

创伤性分离个体注意加工的警戒-回避模式研究

采用点探测研究范式,对高分离个体和低分离个体在两种呈现时间500ms和1500ms条件下,随机呈现创伤性图片和中性图片,进行点探测反应,考察创伤性分离个体的注意加工特点.结果表明,高分离个体在500ms呈现时间条件下对创伤性图片的反应时间显著快于低分离个体对创伤图片刺激的反应时间,而在1500ms呈现时间条件下则显著慢于低分离个体.表明创伤性高分离个体的注意加工符合警戒-回避的时程性模式:开始时对创伤性刺激是一种保护性的警戒反应;在随后刺激的呈现时间增加时,回避对创伤相关信息的进一步编码和精细加工,出现有意遗忘,体现在提取和回忆上的减弱,我们称之为回避加工.     

情绪与决策：躯体标记假设及其研究新进展

人类的决策被广泛认为是一个理性的和认知主导的过程,因此在决策研究中,任何形式的情绪都被避免。最近,一些神经科学的研究显示,情绪是人类决策中的一部分,它不可以与认知分析过程相分离,并且有些时候,情绪甚至在决策过程中起着重要的作用。躯体标记假设就提供了一个情绪如何影响人们决策的神经解剖和认知的框架,其核心为决策受躯体状态（或标识信号）所影响,躯体状态来源于生物调节过程,包括情绪和情感过程。该文章介绍了何为躯体标记假设,躯体标记假设的实验研究,以及研究中的新进展。     

汉语词汇习得的年龄效应：语义假设的证据

通过三个实验考察了词汇加工中的习得年龄效应。实验一对比了汉字命名和图片命名中词汇习得的年龄效应,发现图片命名中存在着较大的词汇习得的年龄效应,汉字命名中没有出现这种效应。实验二和实验三分别采用语义范畴判断任务和图片语义分类任务,两个实验均发现了词汇习得的年龄效应。实验结果说明,词汇习得的年龄效应至少部分来源于语义加工的层次,结果支持了语义假设的观点     

信息量和明显度对规则可获得性的影响

该研究探索了规则的信息量与明显度对规则可获得性的影响。采用改编后的2-4-6任务, 70名大学生参加了两个实验。实验1发现, 规则可获得性除了受到信息量的影响外, 还受到明显度的显著影响; 实验2增加了规则的探测, 发现信息量大、明显度高的规则更容易用语言陈述出来, 而信息量小、明显度低的规则更不容易陈述出来。实验结果启示：信息量大、明显度高的规则可能是一种外显规则, 而信息量小、明显度低的规则可能是一种内隐规则。初步提出了“计算和感知的双加工”模型。     

Examination of the Eyberg Child Behavior Inventory Discrepancy Hypothesis

ABSTRACT

This study examined the Eyberg Child Behavior Inventory (ECBI) discrepancy hypothesis, which asserts that a discrepancy in score elevations on the ECBI Intensity and Problem Scales is related to problematic parenting styles. The Intensity Scale measures the frequency of child disruptive behavior, and the Problem Scale measures parent perception of their child's behavior as problematic. In a sample of 216 female caregivers of 3-to7-year-old children, the magnitude of discrepancy between T scores on the two ECBI scales was found to predict parental tolerance for child misbehavior. A one-standard-deviation difference in ECBI T scores identified (a) parents intolerant of their child's misbehavior when the Problem score was highest and (b) overly permissive parents when the Intensity score was highest.     

Attention to Emotion and Non-Western Faces: Revisiting the Facial Feedback Hypothesis

In a modified replication of Strack, Martin, and Stepper's demonstration of the Facial Feedback Hypothesis (1988), we investigated the effect of attention to emotion on the facial feedback process in a non-western cultural setting. Participants, recruited from two universities in Ghana, West Africa, gave self-reports of their perceived levels of attention to emotion, and then completed cartoon-rating tasks while randomly assigned to smiling, frowning, or neutral conditions. While participants with low Attention to Emotion scores displayed the usual facial feedback effect (rating cartoons as funnier when in the smiling compared to the frowning condition), the effect was not present in individuals with high Attention to Emotion. The findings indicate that (1) the facial feedback process can occur in contexts beyond those in which the phenomenon has previously been studied, and (2) aspects of emotion regulation, such as Attention to Emotion can interfere with the facial feedback process.     

Tests for equality of several alpha coefficients when their sample estimates are dependent

In a variety of measurement situations, the researcher may wish to compare the reliabilities of several instruments administered to the same sample of subjects. This paper presents eleven statistical procedures which test the equality ofm coefficient alphas when the sample alpha coefficients are dependent. Several of the procedures are derived in detail, and numerical examples are given for two. Since all of the procedures depend on approximate asymptotic results, Monte Carlo methods are used to assess the accuracy of the procedures for sample sizes of 50, 100, and 200. Both control of Type I error and power are evaluated by computer simulation. Two of the procedures are unable to control Type I errors satisfactorily. The remaining nine procedures perform properly, but three are somewhat superior in power and Type I error control.A more detailed version of this paper is also available.     

浅析肿瘤胚胎性起源假说

假说的检验是一个历史的辩证的发展过程.1829年,Lobstein和Recamier提出了肿瘤的胚胎性起源的概念.经过了近2个世纪,应该重新认识和评价该假说.论述了现有肿瘤起源假说,肿瘤胚胎性起源假说的提出、发展、证据和意义,以及给予我们的启示.     

认知年老化与执行衰退假说

在认知年老化领域,执行衰退假说是近年来新兴的一种理论。执行衰退假说在理论上具有很强的吸引力,但在实证研究中却存在很多困难,如执行功能的可分离性问题,执行功能测量的信度和效度问题,以及执行功能与加工速度的关系问题。目前,该领域研究的焦点是：在行为学水平上,控制一般性因素（加工速度）后,执行功能是否仍对认知年老化起重要的中介作用;在神经水平上,执行（额叶）功能随龄的变化情况,以及在认知年老化过程中,额叶在大脑功能重组中扮演的角色。最终实现对认知年老化的理解,需要将认知功能与大脑结构联系起来;既看到广泛存在的共同的基本机制,又不能忽略不同认知结构的选择性变化。     

Examining Linguistic Relativity Hypothesis as One of the Main Views on the Relationship Between Language and Thought

One of those features that set human societies apart from animal societies is the use of language. Language is a vital part of every human culture and is a powerful social tool that we master at an early age. A second feature of humans is our ability to solve complex problems. For centuries philosophers have questioned whether these two abilities are related and, if so, what the nature of the relationship between language and thought is. At the beginning of the last century psychologists joined this debate and it is a topic that is currently generating a lot of research. Another factor in the study of language and thought is the role of culture. When we study a language from another country we see that it is not just the words and grammar that are different but the customs and traditions as well. Even the ideas of that culture and the way of dealing with life can be different. There are a number of views on the nature of the relationship between language and thought. But here we are going to explore one of those views, the linguistic relativity hypothesis (LRH), concerning that the language a speaker uses influences the way the speaker thinks.     

浅析心电波形唯一性假说

通过对海量心电图资料的分析，发现每个人的心电图波形绝然不同，均有其自身特点，也即具有唯一性，而同一人的心电波形在出生后至18岁成年前如人的容貌、身高、体重一样变化较大，成年后则相对稳定、基本不变，我们认为心电波形如同其他生物特征一样具有生物特征的显著特点，由此提出心电图心电波形具有唯一性的假说。     

效应量：估计、报告和解释

鉴于心理学界对效应量（effect size,ES）的日渐重视,本文集中探讨了标准差异型和关联强度型ES指标的计算公式及使用条件,并说明关联强度型指标在SPSS软件中的操作。其次,强调ES估计结果的两个报告原则,即明确指出所计算的是何种ES指标,尽可能地呈现ES的置信区间。在ES的解释方面,建议研究者结合具体情况综合权衡结果的实际重要性,而非机械援引各种所谓＂小＂、＂中＂、＂大＂的ES判定准则。