Cognitive Reflection Predicts Real‐Life Decision Outcomes,but Not Over and Above Personality and Decision‐Making Styles |
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| Authors: | Marie Juanchich Chris Dewberry Miroslav Sirota Sunitha Narendran |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Kingston Business School, Kingston University, Kingston upon Thames, Surrey, UK;2. Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK;3. Department of Psychology, Kingston University, Kingston upon Thames, Surrey, UK |
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| Abstract: | The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), designed to assess the ability to inhibit intuition to process a problem analytically, predicts people's performance in many normative judgement and decision‐making tasks (e.g., Bayesian reasoning, conjunction fallacy and ratio bias). However, how the CRT predicts normative decision‐making performance is unclear, and little is known about the extent to which the CRT predicts real‐life decision outcomes. We investigate the role of the CRT in predicting real‐life decision outcomes and examine whether the CRT predicts real‐life decision outcomes after controlling for two related individual differences: the Big Five personality traits and decision‐making styles. Our results show that greater CRT scores predict positive real‐life decision outcomes measured by the Decision Outcome Inventory. However, the effect size was small, and the relationship became non‐significant after statistically controlling for personality and decision‐making styles. We discuss the limited predictive role of cognitive reflection in real‐life decision‐making outcomes, along with the roles of personality and decision‐making styles. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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| Keywords: | cognitive reflection decision outcome decision‐making styles personality individual differences |
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