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| 过度自信的研究展望 | |
| 引用本文： | 周爱保,赵鑫. 过度自信的研究展望[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2009, 7(3): 236-240 |
| 作者姓名： | 周爱保 赵鑫 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西北师范大学心理学系,兰州,730070 2. 北京师范大学心理学院,应用实验心理北京市重点实验室,北京,100875 |
| 摘 要： | 过度自信是个体高估自身判断精确度的一种认知偏差。过高估计和过高定位作为过度自信的两种主要类型被认为是个体在评价其绝对能力和相对能力时的表现。一般认为信息加工的偏差与判断误差的无偏性是造成过高估计的主要原因。自我提升动机、权重差异与信息的差异被认为是产生过高定位的原因。但是过度自信的这两种类型却在不同难度的任务巾出现了分离现象。最近，研究者提出了贝叶斯过度自信，用贝叶斯推理对不同任务中二者的分离进行了整合。过度自信产生的原因和内在心理机制、过度自信对决策的影响以及过度自信中的个体差异研究将会成为该领域日后研究的趋势。 |
| 关 键 词： | 过度自信 过高估计 过高定位 “简单-困难”效应 贝叶斯推理 |
THE REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF OVERCONFIDENCE |
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| Zhou Aibao,Zhao Xin. THE REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF OVERCONFIDENCE[J]. Studies of Psychology and Behavior, 2009, 7(3): 236-240 | |
| Authors: | Zhou Aibao Zhao Xin |
| Affiliation: | Zhou Aibao,Zhao Xin(Department of Psychology,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,Beijing Key Lab of Applied Experimental Psychology,School of Psychology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875) |
| Abstract: | Overconfidence is a cognitive bias in which people overestimate their own accuracy.Overestimate and overplacement are considered as two central types of overconfidence occurred when individual assess his/her absolute ability and relative ability.In general,biases in information processing and effects of unbiased judgmental error are considered as the main reasons for overconfidence.Reasons for overplacement including motivation of selfenhancement,differential weighting and differential information have been... |
| Keywords: | overconfidence overestimation overplacement Hard-easy effect Bayesian inference. |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |