Predicting developmental outcomes at school entry using a multiple-risk model: four American communities. The Conduct Problems Prevention Research Group

The contributions of different risk factors in predicting children's psychological and academic outcomes at the end of 1st grade were examined. Using a regression model, levels of ecobehavioral risk were assessed in the following order: specific demographics, broad demographics, family psychosocial status, mother's depressive symptoms, and neighborhood quality. Participants were 337 families from 4 American communities. Predictor variables were assessed in kindergarten, and teacher, parent, and child outcomes (behavioral and academic) were assessed at the end of 1st grade. Results indicated that (a) each level of analysis contributed to prediction of most outcomes, (b) 18%-29% of the variance was predicted in outcomes, (c) a common set of predictors predicted numerous outcomes, (d) ethnicity showed little unique prediction, and (e) the quality of the neighborhood showed small but unique prediction to externalizing problems.