Verbal predictions of unexpected stimuli and choice reaction time

In two choice reaction time (RT) experiments, subjects verbally predicted the stimulus alternative that was either most or least likely to be presented on each trial. An expectancy interpretation of prediction effects requires that stimuli matching least likely predictions yield the longest RTs. In Experiment 1, with four stimulus alternatives, RTs to stimuli matching the verbalized stimulus, both most likely and least likely predictions, were shorter than RTs to stimuli that matched neither the most nor the least likely predictions. However, matching most likely predictions produced faster responses with two alternatives. In Experiment 2, multiple predictions of both most and least likely stimuli were compared with joint predictions of first and second most likely alternatives. RTs to stimuli matching least likely predictions were longer than RTs to most likely matches, implicating prediction type as a partial determinant of RT. Matching least likely stimuli were responded to more quickly than unpredicted alternatives, demonstrating the importance of generating a prediction per se over the implied level of expectancy. Results from both experiments were contrasted with nonparametric predictions from an ordered memory scanning model.