判断与决策中的证实性偏差

证实性偏差是指个体在决策时, 倾向于有意或无意地寻找支持已有信念、预期或假设的信息和解释, 忽视可能与之不一致的信息和解释。目前, 研究者主要从肯定检验策略、认知失调理论以及错误规避三个方面解释证实性偏差的心理机制。证实性偏差还受到条件性参考框架、任务的抽象性、个体经验以及认知闭合的需要等因素的影响。虽然证实性偏差不能完全消除, 但是可以通过竞争性假设分析法和考虑对立面的方法降低其程度。未来的研究可以从证实性偏差的产生根源、研究范式、群体决策中的证实性偏差以及拓展应用研究这四个方面进行探讨。

The Confirmation Bias in Judgment and Decision Making

Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out information or interpret evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs,expectation,or hypothesises and to ignore or overlook information that is potentially inconsistent.This tendency is universal in behavioral decision making.Currently,researchers explicating the generation mechanism of confirmation bias,have proposed theories like positive-test strategy,cognitive dissonance theory and error avoidance phenomenon.In addition,researches highlighted moderating variables,including need for cognitive closure,abstractness of materials,experience,and conditional reference frame,to which confirmation bias may be subjected.Though a largely implacable cognitive tendency,confirmation bias can be abated through analysis of competing hypotheses and a consideration of the opposite.Moreover,directions for future study on confirmation bias are discussed.