The Predictive Validity of Injury Proxies: Predicting Early Adolescent Injuries with Assessments of Minor Injuries

This study offers an initial step in establishing the predictive validity of injury proxies. Proxies are utilized frequently by injury researchers to overcome various methodological and ethical issues inherent in injury research, although psychometric data on proxies are limited. Using data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development we found that minor injuries predicted adolescent injuries longitudinally, even in the context of well-established predictors of injury risk. This study is the first to demonstrate the predictive validity of minor injuries, a common proxy of pediatric injury risk. Findings are discussed with respect to implications for conceptual understanding of injury risk, future research, and prevention efforts.