对归纳推理贝叶斯模型的检验

作者用实验比较检验特征归纳的贝叶斯模型、关联相似性模型、基于特征的归纳推理模型和相似性覆盖模型这四种模型。以大学生为被试的实验结果表明：1）在强关联强度一致时，被试的归纳推理基本符合贝叶斯模型和关联相似性模型的预测，在弱关联强度一致时，不符合这四种模型预测；2）在关联强度不一致时，关联强度效应不符合贝叶斯模型的预测；3）在关联强度一致时，贝叶斯模型和关联相似性模型的预测结果是一致的，不能区分两个模型。实验结果较多地支持贝叶斯模型和关联相似性模型。

A Test of The Bayesian Model of Inductive Reasoning

Anexperiment on college students compared and tested the Bayesian model, the relevance similarity model, the feature - based induction model and the similarity- coverage model. The results showed that： （1） in the same strong relevance strength, inductive inferences were basically consistent with the predictions of the Bayesian model and the relevance similarity model; in the same weak relevance strength, inductive inferences were not in line with the prediction by the four models; （2） when relevance strengths were different, there was the relevance strength effect beyond the prediction by the Bayesian model; （3） when relevance strengths were equal, the prediction results of Bayesian model and relevance similarity model were consistent. The results more supported Bayesian model and the relevance similarity model over the other models.