Psychological models of professional decision making

People are often expected to make decisions based on allof the relevant information, weighted and combined appropriately. Under manyconditions, however, people use heuristic strategies that depart from thisideal. I tested the ability of two models to predict bail decisions made byjudges in two courts. In both courts, a simple heuristic proved to be abetter predictor of judicial decisions than a more complex model thatinstantiated the principles of due process. Specifically, judges were"passing the buck" because they relied on decisions madeby the police, prosecution, and previous bench. Problematically, theseearlier decisions were not significantly related to case characteristics.These findings have implications for the types of models researchers use tocapture professional decision-making policies.