An Event History Analysis of First-Term Soldier Attrition

The study of attrition has largely focused on identifying demographic or biographic characteristics that predict whether soldiers complete their enlistment term. As a result, much is known about who attrites. Less is known about why soldiers attrite. This research assessed the influence of two psychological factors on U.S. Army soldier attrition: self-reported confidence that one could complete one’s term of service and ambivalence regarding the decision to enlist. The study sample consisted of first-term enlisted soldiers (N = 14,808) who were respondents to Army surveys. Results of fitting three longitudinal models indicated that confidence in being able to complete one’s term of obligation was more predictive of attrition for those reporting greater ambivalence regarding the decision to enlist. This effect was significant throughout a 3-year period. This work adds to our understanding of attrition by highlighting the role of confidence and ambivalence. Implications for strategies to reduce attrition are discussed.