Probability,disposition, and the inconsistency of attitudes and behavior

Inconsistency of attitudes and behavior is due to the probabilistic connection between responses or actions and the (not directly observable) dispositions on which they depend. Latent variable models provide criteria for recognizing when attitude and behavior depend on the same disposition. Statistical tests of such models and techniques of parameter estimation are described. The viewpoint proposed here and illustrated with empirical examples contrasts with the prevalent reliance on correlational models and methods.This research was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant number SES-8411359 and was carried out with facilities provided by the Social Process Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara. Magnus Stenbeck assisted with the statistical analysis. Data were obtained from published sources (as cited) and from the archives of the Roper Center (which supplied data tapes for the 1976 and 1980 CBS News/New York Times election surveys) and the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (which supplied data tapes for the 1948 Elmira Panel Study and the 1976 National Election Study). Neither the original investigators nor these agencies bear any responsibility for the accuracy of my work or for my interpretations of the data.