On the study of statistical intuitions |
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| Authors: | Daniel Kahneman Amos Tversky |
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| Affiliation: | University of British Columbia, Canada;Stanford University, USA |
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| Abstract: | The study of intuitions and errors in judgment under uncertainty is complicated by several factors: discrepancies between acceptance and application of normative rules; effects of content on the application of rules; Socratic hints that create intuitions while testing them; demand characteristics of within-subject experiments; subjects' interpretations of experimental messages according to standard conversational rules. The positive analysis of a judgmental error in terms of heuristics may be supplemented by a negative analysis, which seeks to explain why the correct rule is not intuitively compelling. A negative analysis of non-regressive prediction is outlined. |
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| Keywords: | Reprints requests should be sent to Daniel Kahneman Department of Psychology University of British Columbia 2075 Wesbrook Mall Vancouver B.C. Canada V6T 1W5. |
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