不确定性决策违背“确定事件原则”的心理机制再探

不确定性决策违背＂确定事件原则＂的心理机制再探从决策理由切入,在现实情境中考察了违背确定事件原则（sure-thing principle）的心理机制,检验了基于理由（reason-based）的假设。研究结果表明,违背确定事件原则的被试在不确定条件下知觉到的理由冲突程度显著高于遵循确定事件原则的被试在不确定条件下知觉到的理由冲突程度;违背确定事件原则的被试在不确定条件下知觉到的理由清晰程度显著低于其在两种确定条件下知觉到的理由清晰程度,而遵循确定事件原则的被试在不确定条件下知觉到的理由清晰程度则介于其在两种确定条件下知觉到的理由清晰程度之间。研究结果支持了基于理由的假设。

Re-examining the Mechanism of the Violations of Savage's Sure-thing Principle under Uncertainty

The present study examined the mechanism of the violations of Savage’s sure-thing principle under uncertainty by analyzing the reasons the participants provided on why they were willing to buy a popular brand of beer when they were presented with a 2010 FIFA World Cup in a three-condition scenario.In the two conditions of certainty,the participants imagined that the Argentina either won or lost.In the uncertain condition,the participants imagined that they did not know whether Argentina won or lost.According to their choice preference over whether they were willing to buy the popular brand of beer,the participants were assigned to those who violated the STP and those who did not.The results revealed that those who violated the STP perceived more conflict in the reasons to buy the promoted beer in the uncertain condition than those who did not.Moreover,the reasons to buy the promoted beer were less clear in the uncertain condition than in the two certain conditions for the participants who violated the STP but not for those who did not.These results support the "reasons-based" account for the violations of Savage’s sure-thing principle.