Counterfactual Evaluation of Outcomes in Social Risk Decision-Making Situations: The Cognitive Developmental Paradox Revisited

We report a study that examined the existence of a cognitive developmentalparadox in the counterfactual evaluation of decision-making outcomes. Accordingto this paradox adolescents and young adults could be able to applycounterfactual reasoning and, yet, their counterfactual evaluation of outcomescould be biased in a salient socio-emotional context. To this aim, we analyzedthe impact of health and social feedback on the counterfactual evaluation ofoutcomes in a laboratory decision-making task involving short narratives withthe presence of peers. Forty risky (e.g., taking or refusing a drug), fortyneutral decisions (e.g., eating a hamburger or a hotdog), and emotions feltfollowing positive or negative outcomes were examined in 256 early, mid- andlate adolescents, and young adults, evenly distributed. Results showed thatemotional ratings to negative outcomes (regret and disappointment) but not topositive outcomes (relief and elation) were attenuated when feedback wasprovided. Evidence of development of cognitive decision-making capacities didalso exist, as the capacity to perform faster emotional ratings and todifferentially allocate more resources to the elaboration of emotional ratingswhen no feedback information was available increased with age. Overall, weinterpret these findings as challenging the traditional cognitive developmentalassumption that development necessarily proceeds from lesser to greatercapacities, reflecting the impact of socio-emotional processes that could biasthe counterfactual evaluation of social decision-making outcomes.