An availability bias in professional judgment

When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short-term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underestimation bias.     

The utilization of genetic counselors within a newborn screening program

Genetic counselors have participated in the Michigan Newborn Screening Program on a contractual basis since 1988. Their role includes newborn screening education and training, newborn nursery site visits, and monitoring newborn screening in hospitals. Their impact has been to improve the quality of newborn screening services by reducing errors and increasing completion of data fields on newborn screening cards, improving hospital nursery cooperation and problem solving, and enhancing health department response to specific problems.     

创业进展与创业努力的多层次关系：创业自我效能的中介与调节定向的调节作用

基于动机性自我调节框架,通过两项独立研究,探讨前期创业努力对随后创业进展的影响及其内在机理——创业自我效能的中介与调节定向的调节作用。对115名新创业者进行为期6个月(研究1)和对70名新创业者进行为期15个月的追踪调查(研究2),分别构建多层次跨期中介效应检验模型和多层线性回归模型进行数据分析。结果发现:(1)创业自我效能在前期创业进展对随后创业努力的影响中起中介角色;(2)从总体上看(即不考虑调节定向作用时),前期创业进展通过正向影响创业自我效能,负向影响随后创业努力;(3)促进定向水平越高,创业自我效能对随后创业努力产生越强的负向影响,从而前期创业进展与随后创业努力的间接负相关关系越强;(4)预防定向水平越高,创业自我效能对随后创业努力产生越弱的负向影响,从而前期创业进展与随后创业努力的间接负相关关系越弱。这一结果弥合了过往创业自我调节过程研究的混淆结论,拓展了创业情境下的动机性自我调节框架与调节定向观研究,对于揭示创业过程的动态性、复杂性具有积极作用。     

Effects of diagnostic classification systems on clinical hypothesis-generation

In this study it was determined whether (a) classification as opposed to absence of classification has an effect on the quality of clinical hypotheses (b) the DSM-III-R and the CBCL have a different effect on the quality of clinical hypotheses, and (c) the potential difference between the DSM-III-R and the CBCL is moderated by the different number of syndromes identified by these systems. To investigate these questions, an experiment was conducted in which 86 clinicians generated hypotheses for six cases. The clinicians were divided into a DSM-III-R, a CBCL, and a control group. Of the six cases, two were classified by both classification systems as one syndrome, two were classified as one syndrome by the DSM-III-R but as two syndromes by the CBCL, and two were classified as two syndromes by the DSM-III-R but as one syndrome by the CBCL. The quality of the hypotheses was determined by means of four dependent variables selected from an overview of qualitative criteria: explanatory value, redundancy, possibility of operationalization, and specificity. No differences between the CBCL and the control groups were found. The DSM group performed better than the control group regarding explanatory value and redundancy. The DSM-III-R group also scored better than the CBCL group regarding explanatory value, particularly when the number of identified syndromes was two for the CBCL and one for the DSM-III-R.     

Mission and reconciliation from a Christian-Muslim relations perspective

The encounter between Islam and Christianity in the mission field has created shocks that have left indelible scars across the ages. These two religions, which have never hidden their missionary intentions, have at times engaged in the struggle for supremacy on the religious chessboard, not hesitating to encroach on each other. This state of affairs has led to frustrations and conflicts between the two religious systems that the passage of time has not been able to erase. Various organizations have attempted to bring Christians and Muslims together, among these the Programme for Christian-Muslim Relations in Africa. Reconciliation is possible. Although the path to reconciliation is still long, one who has already travelled on it gives us signs of hope. Only God can clear the path to effective reconciliation. This, however, must be combined with a new understanding of mission in both religious systems as well as a commitment on the part of both to embark on a new dynamic.     

技术信任和领导信任对企业员工新技术接受的影响

在当今知识经济时代, 新技术的采用对于企业提高核心竞争力至关重要。如何使员工面对新技术带来的风险和不确定性, 信任并接受新技术是企业新技术推广的重要问题。现今学界虽已关注到信任在新技术采用这一过程中的积极作用, 但仍缺乏相关的理论和实证研究, 特别是对于其内在心理机制的解释。为弥补这一研究的不足, 本研究通过分析企业新技术推广情境下, 技术信任和领导信任对员工新技术接受的影响, 并引入了感知风险性与技术自我效能感作为中介变量, 探寻信任影响的内在机制。此外, 还进一步探讨企业文化的调节作用, 从而建构信任与企业员工新技术接受的理论模型, 为企业新技术的推广提出合理建议。     

Auguste Comte on Positivism and Happiness

Auguste Comte (1798–1857) is the founder of a French school of thought that became famous for its encyclopaedic account of the sciences as well as for its exposition of what was designed as a way out of a state of intellectual and moral crisis. This essay demonstrates that there is a linkage between the diagnosis of crisis and the pursuit of happiness in Comte's foundation of positivism. It begins by distinguishing Comte's notion of positivism from that of a value-free science. In analysing Comte's peculiar usage of the term happiness, the essay shows that happiness is understood as the result of the convergence (consensus) of three components: a scientific conception of the world, the feelings of love and veneration, and a wisely ordered activity. The essay then demonstrates that the first of these components is of primary importance inasmuch as it is to frame a new horizon within which man is expected to return to a healthy state of mind, to reshape both his hopes and activities, and to discover his own participation in a supreme order acting through the laws of nature as well as through those of the civilization in which he lives. Conveying this new horizon to citizens of a lasting Republic is the sacred mission of sociology. The essay concludes by pointing out that Comte's conception of happiness can be assessed as unifying some main qualities of life as they are classified in Ruut Veenhoven's fourfold matrix.     

Der “dritte Weg” der “neo-eurasischen” Zeitschrift “Elementy” -- zurück ins Dritte Reich?

Studies in East European Thought - Articulated in the twenties, the doctrines of the exiled Russian ‘Evrazijstvo’ movement are undergoing a renaissance in Russia today. As the...     

John Dewey,The Other Face of the Brazilian New School

This paper intents to analyze the influence of John Dewey’s ideas in the movement that defended the educationl renovation in Brazil (named New School) at the end of the 1920s and in the 1930s. For this, it explains two trends of that movement: the first is described by the metaphor of industrial or mechanical efficiency, whose emphasis was in the power derived from the disciplinary idea of progress, which was embedded in the process of rationalization of the social relations submitted by a factory model; the second, developed by influence of Dewey, is characterized by a project of democratization of society and school that prevented the individual massification and the adoption of the rationalizing model inspired by the factory without any criticism. When Dewey was put in the center of the debate on political, pedagogical and social goals of the Brazilian New School, he was called to introduce a series of concepts that helped to find the balance between the respect for individuality and the observation of the social needs. This paper has some of the conclusions of a major research project, “Philosophy and Science in the New Educational Discourse (Brazil: l930–1960),” sponsored by CNPq.