Identifying subgroups that succeed or fail with three levels of physical activity intervention: the Activity Counseling Trial.

The authors used recursive partitioning methods to identify combinations of baseline characteristics that predict 2-year physical activity success in each of 3 physical activity interventions delivered in the multisite Activity Counseling Trial. The sample consisted of 874 initially sedentary primary care patients, ages 35-75 years, who were at risk for cardiovascular disease. Predictors of 2-year success were specific to each intervention and represented a range of domains, including physiological, demographic, psychosocial, health-related, and environmental variables. The results indicate how specific patient subgroups (e.g., obese, unfit individuals; high-income individuals in stable health) may respond differently to varying levels and amounts of professional assistance and support. The methods used provide a practical first step toward identifying clinically meaningful patient subgroups for further systematic investigation.     

A Test of the Knew-It-All-Along Effect in the 1984 Presidential and Statewide Elections1

The knew-it-all-along effect is investigated by comparing pre- and post-election predictions of subjects concerning three electoral races in the November 1984 elections. The results revealed that when the outcomes of the predictions are known, subjects recall having assigned higher probabilities and percentages to the actual winners of each election, remember having more confidence in the accuracy of these percentages, and claim to have had more knowledge of the candidates than they had before the election. The results were consistent across all three elections and in both repeated-measures and between-pups designs, suggesting that the knew-it-all-along effect is a very robust one. Two underlying processes are hypothesized to account for these results: the availability heuristic and an increase in confidence explanation.     

Selective impairment of phonation: A case study

A 47-year-old right-handed man underwent craniotomy for clipping of an aneurism at the trifurcation of the left middle cerebral artery. Subsequently, he suffered a left hemisphere CVA after which his speech and language resembled that of Broca's aphasia with accompanying apraxia of speech. Medical, behavioral, and acoustical data amassed over a period of several months indicated numerous contraindications to traditional diagnoses of Broca's aphasia, apraxia of speech, and dysarthria. Ultimately, it was determined that the patient had a selective impairement of phonation or laryngeal apraxia. This was illustrated dramatically when he was taught to use an electrolarynx which allowed him to bypass his disrupted phonatory system. Speaking with the electrolarynx, the patient communicated normally. Any semblance of Broca's aphasia disappeared. Supralaryngeal articulation was normal; apraxia of speech behaviors were absent. This case report indicates that dissociation of oral and laryngeal gestures due to brain injury is possible. Mechanisms underlying such a dissociation for this case are reviewed. The possibility of discrete center lesions in the frontal motor association area causing different types of apraxia of speech is discussed.     

The analytics of continuing conflict

Individuals, groups, or nations — if rational and self-interested — will be balancing on the margin between two alternative ways of generating income: (1) peaceful production and exchange, versus (2) appropriative efforts designed to seize resources previously controlled by others (or to defend against such invasions). Both production and appropriation, on the assumption here, are entirely normal lines of activity engaged in to the extent that doing so seems profitable.The general-equilibrium steady-state model involves a resource partition function, a social production function, a combat power function, and an income distribution equation. Solutions were obtained under thesymmetrical Cournot protocol and two alternativeasymmetrical assumptions: the familiar Stackelberg condition and a more novel hierarchical protocol called Threat-and-Promise. The analysis demonstrates that, in contrast with the harmonistic bias of orthodox economic theory, a general-equilibrium model can also encompass the hostile and destructive interactions that characterize real-world social relations.The efforts of men are utilized in two different ways: they are directed to the production or transformation of economic goods, or else to the appropriation of goods produced by others.Vilfredo ParetoI thank the Ford Foundation for assistance in supporting this research.     

An exploratory study of planning, attention, simultaneous, and successive cognitive processes

Although there has been a considerable amount of research on simultaneous and successive processing (Luria's second functional unit) by Das and others, there have been relatively few investigations into the measurement of attention and planning (the first and third functional units, respectively). The purpose of this investigation was to examine the factorial validity of tasks designed to measure cognitive processing in each of Luria's three functional units. A sample of 112 normal fourth- and fifth-grade students were administered nine experimental tasks chosen or developed according to the theoretical components of planning, attention, simultaneous, and successive processes. Principal factor analyses (orthogonal and oblique) with rotation of four factors resulted in solutions that closely matched the anticipated groupings based on a structural analysis of the tasks. General support for the feasibility of measurement of Luria's cognitive processing model, and the need to further develop and refine these and other experimental tasks, was obtained.