The effect of COVID-19 on home advantage in high- and low-stake situations: Evidence from the European national football competitions

The Covid-19 pandemic has significantly altered the way sporting events are observed. With the absence or limited presence of spectators in stadiums, the traditional advantage enjoyed by home teams has diminished considerably. This underscores the notion that the support of home fans can often be considered a key factor of the home advantage (HA) phenomenon, wherein teams perform better in front of their own supporters. However, the impact of reduced attendance on games with higher stakes, as opposed to low-stakes friendly matches, remains uncertain. In this study, we investigate the recently concluded European football championship (EURO 20), wherein several teams had the advantage of playing at home in high-stakes games with only one-third of the stadium capacity filled. Firstly, we demonstrate that the Covid-19 restrictions, leading to reduced fan attendance, resulted in a nearly 50% decrease in HA compared to the HA exhibited by the same teams during the qualification stage preceding EURO 20, even after accounting for team strength. Secondly, we show that while low-stakes friendly matches generally exhibit a smaller overall HA compared to high-stakes games, the absence of fans led to a similar reduction in HA during the low-stakes matches. Utilizing the recently developed Home Advantage Mediated (HAM) model (Bilalić, Gula, & Vaci, 2021, Scientific Reports, 21558), we were able to attribute the reduction in both high- and low-stakes games to poorer team performance, with no significant contribution from referee bias.     

Effect of Daily Life Reward Loop Functioning on the Course of Depression

Engagement in activities increases positive affect (Reward Path 1), which subsequently reinforces motivation (Reward Path 2), and hence future engagement in activities (Reward Path 3). Strong connections between these three reward loop components are considered adaptive, and might be disturbed in depression. Although some ecological nomentary assessment (EMA) studies have investigated the cross-sectional association between separate reward paths and individuals’ level of depression, no EMA study has looked into the association between individuals’ reward loop strength and depressive symptom course. The present EMA study assessed reward loop functioning (5x/day, 28 days) of 46 outpatients starting depression treatment at secondary mental health services and monitored with the Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology—Self-Report (IDS-SR) during a 7-month period. Results of multilevel regression analyses showed significant within-person associations for Reward Path 1 (b = 0.21, p < .001), Reward Path 2 (b = 0.43, p < .001), and Reward Path 3 (b = 0.20, p < .001). Stronger average reward loops (i.e., within-person mean of all reward paths) did not relate to participants’ improvement in depressive symptoms over time. Path-specific results revealed that Reward Paths 1 and 2 may have partly opposite effects on depressive symptom course. Together, our findings suggest that reward processes in daily life might be best studied separately and that further investigation is warranted to explore under what circumstances strong paths are adaptive or not.     

Extending exploratory diagnostic classification models: Inferring the effect of covariates

Diagnostic models provide a statistical framework for designing formative assessments by classifying student knowledge profiles according to a collection of fine-grained attributes. The context and ecosystem in which students learn may play an important role in skill mastery, and it is therefore important to develop methods for incorporating student covariates into diagnostic models. Including covariates may provide researchers and practitioners with the ability to evaluate novel interventions or understand the role of background knowledge in attribute mastery. Existing research is designed to include covariates in confirmatory diagnostic models, which are also known as restricted latent class models. We propose new methods for including covariates in exploratory RLCMs that jointly infer the latent structure and evaluate the role of covariates on performance and skill mastery. We present a novel Bayesian formulation and report a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm for approximating the model parameter posterior distribution. We report Monte Carlo simulation evidence regarding the accuracy of our new methods and present results from an application that examines the role of student background knowledge on the mastery of a probability data set.     

Continuous and discrete latent structure models for item response data

Relations are examined between latent trait and latent class models for item response data. Conditions are given for the two-latent class and two-parameter normal ogive models to agree, and relations between their item parameters are presented. Generalizationss are then made to continuous models with more than one latent trait and discrete models with more than two latent classes, and methods are presented for relating latent class models to factor models for dichotomized variables. Results are illustrated using data from the Law School Admission Test, previously analyzed by several authors.     

Exploring the set-theoretical structure of objects by additive trees

Arrangements of feature sets that have been proposed to represent qualitative and quantitative variation among objects are shown to generate identical sets of set-symmetric distances. The set-symmetric distances for these feature arrangements can be represented by path lengths in an additive linear tree. Imperfect versions of these feature arrangements are proposed, which also are indistinguishable by the set-symmetric distance model. The distances for the imperfect versions can be represented by path lengths in an additive imperfectly linear tree. When dissimilarities are defined by the more general contrast model and a constant may be added to proximity data, then for both the perfect and imperfect arrangements an additive tree analysis obtains a perfect fit with an imperfectly linear tree. However, in the case of the contrast model also the distinction between the perfect and imperfect arrangements disappears in that also for the perfect arrangements the resulting tree need no longer be linear.The author is grateful to Mathieu Koppen for detailed comments on an earlier version of this article.     

The Question of God in an Age of Science: Constructions of Reality and Ultimate Reality in Theology and Science

Both science and theology have lately faced a crisis of authority. Their shared realization of the extent to which knowledge is underdetermined by the data and socially constructed provides a kind of common ground for reconsideration of their respective methods of inquiry as well as of the status of the claims they have warrant to make. Both fields are now consciously and critically employing a models approach. This article proposes criteria for assessing models and applies the criteria to one model from each field. The model of understanding evolution as a struggle for existence is considered from the field of science, and the traditional model for understanding the God-world relation as that of a king's relation to his kingdom is considered from the field of theology. Each of these models is evaluated with respect to its credibility, religious viability, and moral adequacy. In each case an alternative analogy is proposed and argued for.     

DIE MARXISMUS – DEBATTE IM “SILBERNEN ZEITALTER”

Im Anfang des 20.Jahrhunderts unterzog eine Reihe von jungen, später berühmt gewordenen Philosophen den Marxismus einer tiefen Kritik. Ihnen ist es gelungen, wichtige Defekte der revolutionären Doktrinen aufzudecken und ihre verhängnivsollen Konsequenzen vorwegzunehmen. Diese Kritik ist auch für die gegenwärtige geistig-politische Situation aktuell.     

'The Rich Squander Money by the Thousands'

Following the publication of an unknown letter of Jung's on the theme of the possibility of liberal dictatorship, the authors have presented the actual letter that prompted Jung's reply and a further letter from the 16–year-old boy in Kansas. An interview with Jung in Hearst's International Cosmopolitan Magazine conducted by H.R. Knickerbocker in 1938 initially prompted the boy to write to Jung and the interview, which has been published, is summarized. Economic and financial themes were prominent in the boy's mind and links are made to earlier discussions in this Journal about these matters.