Making sense of surprise: an investigation of the factors influencing surprise judgments

Surprise is often defined in terms of disconfirmed expectations, whereby the surprisingness of an event is thought to be dependent on the degree to which it contrasts with a more likely, or expected, outcome. The authors investigated the alternative hypothesis that surprise is more accurately modeled as a manifestation of an ongoing sense-making process. In a series of experiments, participants were given a number of scenarios and rated surprise and probability for various hypothetical outcomes that either confirmed or disconfirmed an expectation. Experiment 1 demonstrated that representational specificity influences the relationship that holds between surprise and probability ratings. Experiment 2 demonstrated that the inclusion of an enabling event lowers surprise ratings for disconfirming outcomes. Experiment 3 explored the reason for this effect, revealing that enabling events lower surprise by reducing uncertainty, thus enhancing ease of integration. Experiment 4 evaluated the contrast hypothesis directly, showing that differences in contrast are not correlated with differences in surprise. These results provide converging support for the view that the level of surprise experienced for an event is related to the difficulty of integrating that event with an existing representation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).     

Stonewalling through Schizophrenia: An Anti-Gay Rights Culture in Hong Kong?

With its British colonial legacy and Chinese make-up, Hong Kong provides a stimulating stadium and lens through which to examine the validity of the use of “culture” in arguing against homosexuality and the development and protection of the rights of sexual minorities. After a brief account on the legal developments in Hong Kong on homosexuality, this article examines how the argument that Hong Kong has an inherently anti-gay rights culture, which simultaneously emphasizes Confucianism and Christianity, and which the government then uses to stonewall the development and protection of the rights of sexual minorities, merely illuminates an underlying schizophrenia as to what that culture actually is. In the process of my diagnosis, I will also discuss whether Confucianism and Christianity indeed oppose homosexuality and sexual minority rights.

Response rate and sensitivity to the molar feedback function relating response and reinforcement rate on VI+ schedules of reinforcement

In 5 experiments, the author examined rats' sensitivity to the molar feedback function relating response rate to reinforcement rate on schedules of reinforcement. These studies demonstrated that, at lower rates of responding, rats' performance on variable ratio (VR), variable interval (VI), and variable interval with linear feedback loop (VI+) schedules was determined largely by reinforcement of interresponse times; response rates were faster on VR than on both VI and VI+ schedules. In contrast, when procedures were adopted to maintain high rates of response, rats showed sensitivity to the molar characteristics of the schedules; they responded as fast on a VI+ schedule as on a VR schedule and faster on both of these schedules than on a yoked VI schedule. When the variance of response rate was manipulated, this factor was noted as an important element in determining sensitivity to the molar characteristics of the schedule.     

Persistent symptoms among survivors of Hodgkin's disease: an explanatory model based on classical conditioning.

Persistent symptoms of nausea, distress, and vomiting triggered by reminders of cancer treatment were examined among 273 Hodgkin's disease survivors, 1 to 20 years posttreatment. Prevalence rates were high for distress and nausea but low for vomiting. Retrospective report of anticipatory symptoms during treatment was the strongest predictor of persistent symptoms, suggesting that treatment-induced symptoms are less likely to persist if conditioning does not occur initially. Time since treatment was also a significant predictor, with patients more recently treated more likely to experience persistent symptoms. Thus, an explanatory model based on classical conditioning theory successfully predicted presence of persistent symptoms. Symptoms also were associated with ongoing psychological distress, suggesting that quality of life is diminished among survivors with persistent symptoms. Recommendations for prevention and treatment of symptoms are discussed.     

Reliability and validity of the Multiple Affect Adjective Check List - Revised

A recent factor analysis of the Multiple Affect Adjective Check List (MAACL) changed the Anxiety, Depression, and Hostility scales from bipolar to unipolar scales and added two new scales: Positive Affect and Sensation Seeking. Internal reliability of the MAACL-R scales, computed for normal and patient samples, was adequate for state and trait forms except for Sensation Seeking. Test-retest reliability in college students was higher for the trait form with retest intervals of from 2 to 8 weeks than for the state form with retest intervals of from 2 to 5 days. The pattern of correlations among self-, peer, and counselor ratings and the MAACL-R scales for normal and patient samples indicates improved discriminant validity and equally good convergent validity as the old scales. The use of standard scores that are indexed to the number of items checked reduced scale intercorrelations by controlling the acquiescence set.The financial support of the Weldon Springs Endowment Fund, University of Missouri at Kansas City, toward the completion of this research project is gratefully acknowledged.     

The parental attitude research instrument: An approach to use of attitude questionnaires

Parental attitude questionnaires such as the Parental Attitude Research Instrument (PARI) are still in use despite their inherent difficulties. In light of the need to test theoretical models by measuring a range of parental characteristics, the properties of the PARI were re-examined and, on the basis of a factor analysis of the 23 subtests of the PARI, a shortened version was constructed. A measure of maternal Authoritarian Control, which was found to be associated with measures of maternal mental ability, personality, level of education, reading age, number of adverse family conditions and child-rearing practices, has proved useful for other projects related to this ongoing study. It is recommended that such instruments be used only in conjunction with other measures which examine the family environment, for example in an index of child-rearing practices.     

Beliefs m Realistic and Unrealistic Control: Assessment and Implications

ABSTRACT Scales were constructed to measure perceived control over controllable events (realistic control) and perceived control over uncontrollable events (unrealistic control). Internal reliability, test-retest reliability, and discriminant validity of both scales were adequate. Study 1 measured perceived personal control over hassles that judges rated on general controllability. For hassles very high in controllability, perceived personal control was related to belief in realistic control but not to belief in unrealistic control; for hassles very low in controllability, perceived personal control was related to belief in unrealistic control but not to belief in realistic control. Study 2 showed that participants high in unrealistic control belief (but not those high in realistic control belief) persevered more on a task that was in part uncontrollable. Study 3 showed that the combination of low realistic control belief and high unrealistic control belief predicted poorer future health, particularly for participants who have reported the experience of many negative events and/or hassles. The conditions under which unrealistic control results in maladaptive outcomes are discussed.     

GOOD AND BAD HUMORS:

Personality and its disorders may he studied at many levels, from the broad trait to the basic genetic level This article ad- dresses primarily two of these levels, the trait and the biochemical, and the relations between them, with some treatment of the genetic and neuropsychological levels Five current trait models are described Neurotransmitter systems in the brain and hormones have been shown to be important sources of other species, but simple one-to-one relationships between traits and biochemical are rare, and integrations are likely at all levels     

A Defense of Backwards in Time Causation Models in Quantum Mechanics

Synthese - This paper offers a defense of backwards in time causation models in quantum mechanics. Particular attention is given to Cramer's transactional account, which is shown to have the...     

Some dubious premises in research and theory on racial differences. Scientific, social, and ethical issues

The scientific premises for looking for statistical differences between groups designated as races (on somewhat arbitrary grounds) are questionable. The explanation of such differences in strictly biological-evolutionary terms is even more dubious. Studies of temperament, basic personality traits, disorders (such as antisocial personality), and specific genetic markers show that there is much more variation within groups designated as races than between such groups. Investigators and theoreticians interpreting such differences on the basis of limited sampling within the three broad racial groups should be careful to avoid selectivity and misrepresentation of data that serve racist ideology, and should be cautious about presenting their theories to the public through inappropriate media forums.