行为决策研究的新取向——基于经验的决策

基于经验的决策是指,在统计概率情境中,个体通过重复选择与反馈获得选项的收益分布信息后进行的决策.基于经验的决策的研究范式主要包括探索-利用范式和探索→利用范式.其暗含的决策人假设是朴素直觉统计学家.其研究关注的主要内容是描述-经验的差异及其原因,以及基于经验的决策内部过程.未来的研究主要从描述-经验差异的原因、描述性决策范式下的结论的重新检验、基于经验的决策的解释模型及其应用研究等方面进行探讨.     

道德直觉决策及其机制探析

道德直觉决策研究是从直觉思维角度探讨决策者在道德境遇下的决策。道德直觉决策是道德情境下的直觉反应, 其理论基础包括躯体标记假说、社会直觉模型、双加工理论、事件特征情感复合体系以及双系统理论; 道德直觉决策机制至少包括：无意识加工、情绪加工和直觉加工三个基本的心理加工过程, 与之对应的神经系统则至少存在三个可能的脑神经回路：无意识加工的道德脑区、情绪加工的道德脑区和直觉加工的道德脑区。研究主要从客观和主观两方面分析了道德直觉决策的一般性影响因素--文化、道德境遇、经验、情绪和道德直觉; 揭示了道德直觉决策的加工机制。未来研究应在加强理论建构的基础上, 通过更缜密细致的实验设计去探究决策过程中各因素的交互作用, 并明确道德脑区之间的联结。     

道德直觉背景下的道德决策：影响因素探究

以往对道德直觉的研究表明了情绪因素在道德决策中的重要作用, 研究者提出道德决策中存在有意识认知和无意识情绪两种加工过程, 二者之间不能够完全分离与孤立。针对这种认知—情绪过程解释、经典电车和人行桥困境中的道德判断差异等问题, 近年来大量研究通过对道德行为者和道德判断者自身原因、道德情境等主客观因素的深入考察, 试图从不同角度来揭示认知—情绪过程解释的合理性及道德决策差异背后的其他原因, 形成了道德直觉背景下相关领域诸多新的关注点。未来研究有必要针对道德决策研究的方法学、情境的扩展及认知—情感系统内部交互等问题作进一步探讨。     

职业决策的策略及其与人-职匹配的关系

职业决策常分三类:理智型、直觉型及依赖型,但直觉型的内容不明。本研究用自编的职业决策问卷(其中直觉型策略细化为三种启发式)对516名近两年做过职业决策者作了调查。结果发现:除理智型策略外,受调查者还较多使用再认、满意化、排除法这三种启发式,较少使用依赖型策略;性别、学历、求职经验不同者使用的策略有不同程度的差异;理智型策略和满意化对人-职匹配有显著预测作用。这提示应合理认识人们使用的多种策略及其不同作用。     

双系统逃生决策的顺序替代效应

探讨当信息以不同方式呈现时双系统逃生决策的顺序替代效应。采用单因素完全随机设计,将180名被试平均分配到直觉、分析和直觉后分析三种条件下考察其逃生决策。结果表明：(1)信息直接呈现时,直觉和分析决策、以及直觉和直觉后分析决策均差异显著且趋势相同;(2)信息隐含呈现时,直觉和分析决策差异显著,但直觉和直觉后分析决策差异不显著。结论：当信息直接呈现时个体的逃生决策存在顺序替代;而当信息隐含呈现时存在反顺序替代。     

决策与推理的双系统——启发式系统和分析系统

近来,在决策与推理的研究中,研究者提出了双系统作用模型：基于直觉的启发式系统和基于理性的分析系统。启发式系统加工速度较快,不占用或占用很少的心理资源,容易受背景相似性、刻板印象的影响;分析系统加工速度慢,占用较多的心理资源,遵从逻辑和规则,而且两个系统有不同进化历史和神经基础。该文根据已有的相关研究,综述了双系统在决策与推理中可能的作用机制、相互关系、个体差异,同时指出了目前研究存在的不足     

决策中个体差异研究现状述评

决策中个体差异的研究有助于进一步检验和深化传统决策理论。文章回顾了近十年决策个体差异研究的主要变量（人格、认知能力、认知风格和年龄）和研究结果,并简要总结了该类研究的背景、研究范式和理论意义。这些研究一致发现个体差异变量对决策过程、决策表现等具有影响作用,说明个体差异与决策加工中复杂的人-情境间联系有关。文章提出,未来研究应该综合考虑决策情境、情绪和决策主体的理论模型,以期对个体差异在决策中的作用做出更好解释     

直觉和分析在不同任务条件下的逃生决策效果

目的：探讨针对简单和复杂逃生任务时, 直觉和分析在不同判断依据条件下的逃生决策效果。方法：采用两个主实验和两个预备实验。实验一和实验二的被试人数分别为：85人和87人。两个主实验均采取2 (思维方式：直觉和分析) × 2 (判断依据：简单和复杂)组间实验设计。主要结果：(1)针对简单逃生任务, 直觉组和分析组在不同判断依据条件下的逃生决策效果差异不明显; (2)针对复杂逃生任务, 在简单判断依据条件下分析决策优于直觉决策; 在复杂判断依据条件下直觉决策优于分析决策。主要结论：直觉性和分析性逃生决策的效果主要与决策任务的复杂程度有关, 而与判断依据的复杂程度关系不大。     

行为决策中的描述–经验差距:信息加工角度的解释

选项信息获取过程会影响决策,描述–经验差距简称D-E差距,是指个体进行决策时根据概括性描述信息得到的结果与依据序列体验信息的经验得到的结果之间的差异。文章以认知因素在决策范式演进过程中的角色为线索,梳理了D-E差距的提出及最新的研究发现。参考决策认知过程框架从信息加工角度探讨D-E差距影响因素,从整体上解释D-E差距的原因。未来需要从全面对比两种决策范式,改进经验决策研究方法等角度进行深入探讨。     

经验决策：概念、研究和展望

传统风险决策研究范式中, 决策信息是事先限定的, 即在决策之前呈现各个决策选项的概率和收益, 被试基于这些信息进行决策。已有研究表明, 在传统风险决策任务中人们会高估小概率事件(rare event)。然而最近出现的一种基于不完整信息的决策形式, 即经验决策却对这一发现提出了挑战。研究发现, 人们在进行经验决策时会表现出对小概率事件的低估, 经验决策和传统决策形式之间存在差异。本文主要介绍经验决策的概念及其研究, 并从学习和不确定程度等角度对两种决策形式进行再认识, 以进一步理解经验决策并提出展望。     

On the Role of Intuition in Decision Making and Some Ways of Multicriteria Aid of Intuition

Practical experiences in decision-making—including the experience in the reform of the system of funding of scientific research in Poland—lead to the conclusion that it is important to understand better the role of intuition in decision-making processes. For this purpose a more specific definition of intuition is proposed. One of the conclusions from this definition is that multicriteria aid for decisions should concentrate more on supporting earlier stages of decision processes that precede choice. The role of and possible tools for multicriteria aid for model simulation and analysis are presented. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toward Modeling and Automating Ethical Decision Making: Design, Implementation, Limitations, and Responsibilities

One recent priority of the U.S. government is developing autonomous robotic systems. The U.S. Army has funded research to design a metric of evil to support military commanders with ethical decision-making and, in the future, allow robotic military systems to make autonomous ethical judgments. We use this particular project as a case study for efforts that seek to frame morality in quantitative terms. We report preliminary results from this research, describing the assumptions and limitations of a program that assesses the relative evil of two courses of action. We compare this program to other attempts to simulate ethical decision-making, assess possibilities for overcoming the trade-off between input simplification and output reliability, and discuss the responsibilities of users and designers in implementing such programs. We conclude by discussing the implications that this project highlights for the successes and challenges of developing automated mechanisms for ethical decision making.     

An Event History Analysis of First-Term Soldier Attrition

The study of attrition has largely focused on identifying demographic or biographic characteristics that predict whether soldiers complete their enlistment term. As a result, much is known about who attrites. Less is known about why soldiers attrite. This research assessed the influence of two psychological factors on U.S. Army soldier attrition: self-reported confidence that one could complete one’s term of service and ambivalence regarding the decision to enlist. The study sample consisted of first-term enlisted soldiers (N = 14,808) who were respondents to Army surveys. Results of fitting three longitudinal models indicated that confidence in being able to complete one’s term of obligation was more predictive of attrition for those reporting greater ambivalence regarding the decision to enlist. This effect was significant throughout a 3-year period. This work adds to our understanding of attrition by highlighting the role of confidence and ambivalence. Implications for strategies to reduce attrition are discussed.     

“Drive On”: The Relationship Between Psychological Variables and Effective Squad Leadership

The U.S. Reserve Officer Training Program (ROTC) conducts systematic assessments of cadets’ leadership abilities during field training exercises (FTX) to assess their leadership abilities. While cadets in ROTC programs learn specific tactical operation procedures to augment FTX performances, much less is known about the relationship between psychological variables and squad leadership performance. To this end, 220 cadets completed self-efficacy, psychological flexibility, and grit questionnaires, which were then compared to FTX performance scores. Results underscored that only self-efficacy was significantly related to cadets’ squad leadership ability. Furthermore, prior service in the U.S. Army had no effect on the performance score one attained, highlighting an interesting paradox. Therefore, while self-efficacy can be cultivated through prior experiences, it seems more prudent to educate ROTC cadets on how to apply psychological skills to bolster self-efficacy in preparation for upcoming challenging leadership experiences.     

Limits to Confidentiality in U.S. Army Treatment Settings

A number of reports detail ethical concerns of behavioral health providers in the U.S. Military regarding limited confidentiality. This article provides a review of limits to confidentiality in behavioral health settings as outlined by U.S. Army regulations and Department of Defense directives. Specific limits are discussed under seven categories, including: medical treatment and oversight, command notification, threats to safety, public health purposes, judicial or administrative proceedings, law enforcement investigation, and specialized personnel programs. Specific attention is given to war crimes reporting, special duty, and command involvement. Lessons learned for best practice across service branches are provided as a collaborative model for resolving perceived conflict between the APA Ethics Code and military regulations.     

职业决策困难研究述评

职业决策困难是指个人在职业决策过程中所遇到的各种难题,其一直是生涯心理学当中一个非常重要的研究主题.它会以两种方式影响职业决策结果:一是,导致个体无法做出决定;二是,导致个体做出劣质决定.本文回顾了1980～2012年国内外相关研究,对职业决策困难的概念界定、亚类型、结构、测量工具、影响因素和干预措施进行了系统梳理.在此基础上,对未来研究方向进行了展望,指出未来研究需要进一步清晰界定职业决策困难的内涵和外延、对维度构成达成共识、深入探索形成机制以及加强定制化干预研究.     

Decision Matrices and Time in Tactical Course of Action Analysis

Tactical decision-making doctrine incorporates rules that conform to a classical additive weighting model. However, decision-making research has increasingly focused on naturalistic strategies. An experiment was conducted to investigate classical and natural approaches to tactical analysis. Teams of U.S. Army officers used either unspecified or structured procedures to analyze courses of action. Structure was imposed by providing workbooks for individual task steps. Completion times and additive weighted matrices were included. Paper-and-pencil and computer versions of materials were used. Teams from both structured groups had better justification scores than those with unspecified procedures. Computer support provided no additional advantage. The more detailed consideration of battle events provided the desired influence, whereas the classical decision rules did not seem to. Early conclusions did not result in better or poorer performance. The findings suggest modified rules for tactical analysis that emphasize detailed consideration of events and flexibility in the timing of decisions.     

Development and Validation of a New Measure of Intuition: The Types of Intuition Scale

The Types of Intuition Scale (TIntS) measures three types of intuition identified in a literature review by Pretz and Totz (2007): holistic, inferential, and affective. Holistic intuitions integrate diverse sources of information in a Gestalt‐like, non‐analytical manner; inferential intuitions are based on previously analytical processes that have become automatic; and affective intuitions are based on feelings. Current intuition measures inadequately assess these distinct types. We report four validity studies: Study 1 reports the reliability and factor structure of the TIntS and correlations with extant intuition and personality measures. Study 2 presents a confirmatory factor analysis. Studies 3 and 4 examine the predictive validity of the TIntS with respect to clinical decision making in occupational therapy and musical performance. Scales were internally consistent and stable over time, and factor analyses supported the predicted distinctions among them. Correlations with existing measures of intuition, personality, and behavior showed that the TIntS is unique in its assessment of all three types of intuition in one measure. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Child Care Use,Earnings, and Reenlistment Desires of Wives of Enlisted Soldiers in the U. S. Army

The U S . Army manages more than 600 Child Development Centers and about 12,000 Army-licensed Family Care Homes with a daily attendance of more than 80,000 children. This article analyzes use of child care services in relation to Army wives' earnings, their satisfaction with Army life, and their desire for their husbands' reenlistment in the Army. Data for wives (n = 1,007) of enlisted soldiers from a 1987 U.S. Department of the Army Survey of Families were used to estimate a system of four simultaneous equations. These data were comparable with similar data collected in 1992. Results revealed that the first criterion variable of child care use was associated positively with the wives' earnings and negatively with the age of the youngest child. The second criterion variable of wives' earnings was related positively to the use of child care services. The third criterion variable of wives' satisfaction with Army life, however, related negatively to their dissatisfaction with the cost of Army child care services. The fourth criterion variable of the wives' satisfaction with Army life was related positively to their desires for their husbands' reenlistment in the Army. Other studies suggest that a wife's desire for her husband's reenlistment has a great influence on his decision to stay. Therefore, the military policy makers might increase Army wives' satisfaction with Army life by lessening dissatisfaction with the cost of child care services, perhaps by reducing user charges for them.