时距估计中的锚定效应

采用两种时距估计方法,检验时距锚定值对时距估计的影响,并探讨了时距信息的心理表征方式。63名在校大学生参加了本次实验。实验1采用口头报告法,表明较大的时距锚定值（5s,5000ms）条件下,被试估对时距的估计值较大,而较小时距锚定值（1s,1000ms）条件下被试估计的时距值较小;语义相同但表述方式不同的锚定值（1s与1000ms,5s与5000ms）条件下的时距估计值没有显著差异。实验2采用产生法,进一步表明时距表述方式对产生时距没有显著影响。以上结果表明,时距估计受时距锚定值的影响,时距信息可能以语义形式进行表征,而不是简单的数字加单位的表层表征形式     

被洞悉错觉中的锚定及其调节效应

根据锚定及其调节效应的理论解释,通过两个情境实验对被洞悉错觉产生过程中的锚定及其调节效应进行研究。研究表明,在紧张、愉快情绪状态下个体均倾向高估他人对自己内部状态的洞悉水平,即产生被洞悉错觉。内心感受强度,即锚定值对被洞悉错觉的产生有重要影响;而有无认知负荷,即认知状态在被洞悉错觉产生过程中与锚定值的调节水平无关,对被洞悉错觉是否发生亦没有明显作用。     

双向背景信息外部锚问题决策的眼动特征

采用正反双向背景信息日常生活外部锚问题,选取64名大学生,运用眼动技术,考察锚值及双向信息对外部锚问题决策的影响。结果发现：高、低锚组锚定效应指数均在0.76以上,且不存在显著差异。回答锚值比较问题时,从锚值向反向信息的眼跳次数和注视时间显著多于向正向信息的眼跳次数和注视时间。回答估计值问题时,从估计值问题向锚值的眼跳次数和注视时间显著多于向双向信息的眼跳次数和注视时间。研究表明,外部锚引起程度较高的锚定效应。反向信息在问题理解及决策中得到更多关注。锚值在回答锚值比较及估计值问题阶段均对决策产生显著影响。支持了选择通达和信息加工负性偏向观点。     

内在锚与外在锚对锚定效应及其双加工机制的影响

通过2（外在锚类型：高锚VS低锚）×2（内在锚类型：有VS无）被试间设计,考察不同锚定信息来源：由外部世界提供的外在锚与个体自身内部产生的内在锚信息对锚定效应及其加工机制的影响。结果发现：（1）当内在锚不存在时,外在高低锚组的估计值有显著差异,当内在锚存在时此种差异变得不显著;（2）当内在锚存在时,外在高低锚组被试的答题反应时有显著差异,内在锚与外在锚一致时反应时比不一致时更快,当内在锚不存在时,此种差异变得不显著。实验结果表明,当锚定调整机制与选择通达机制同时存在时,前者更占优势;锚定信息一致性会影响不同加工机制的启动,一致的信息会激活选择通达机制,不一致的信息则会激活锚定调整机制。     

对变化/分割模型的检验(I)

用两个实验对变化／分割模型进行了检验。实验１控制目标时距和该时距内的填充数字系列,操纵数字系列的分割段数;实验２控制目标时距内的填充数字系列的间距,操纵目标时距及其中填充数字系列的分割段数,要求被试用再现法和多数估计法分别复制目标时距,并进行立即估计和延迟估计。结果显示：与存储容量模型和加工时间模型相比较,变化／分割模型对时间估计的解释具有更高的预测效度     

意识锚定加工对潜在锚定加工的影响

潜在锚定效应是指阈限下的启动锚定数字导致的锚定效应现象。本研究通过2个实验探讨了意识锚定加工对潜在锚定加工的影响。实验一考察了意识层面的外在锚对潜在锚定效应产生的影响,实验二则进一步探讨了意识层面的自发锚对潜在锚定效应的影响。实验一发现,在不存在外在锚时高锚与低锚的估计有显著性差异;实验二发现,在不存在自发锚时高锚与低锚的估计有显著性差异。研究结果表明,外在锚定加工和自发锚定加工的效应都强于潜在锚定加工。     

短时距估计中的心理影响因素

使用单任务研究程序,预期式研究范式,以产生时距作为反应指标,通过两个实验考察短时距估计中的间断位置、间断时距和提示线索效应,探讨产生时距与等待时距的关系问题,揭示注意和间断期望对短时距估计的影响。研究结果表明, 间断实验中表现出极其显著的提示线索效应,间断位置（等待时距）效应显著,间断时距效应及间断位置与间断时距的交互效应不显著。由此得出：(1)注意是影响被试时间判断的主要因素,被试的产生时距随着等待时距的增加而延长。(2)被试对间断的期望显著地影响其时间估计行为,无间断实验条件下,间断期望有损于时间估计。     

时距估计任务中的间断期望效应

使用单任务研究程序,采用引入提示线索的方法,以产生时距作为反应指标对存在间断的时距估计任务中的间断期望效应和提示线索效应（注意效应）进行系统考察,并对间断时距的效应、产生时距与等待时距的关系问题作出进一步探讨。结果表明,间断位置（等待时距）因素是被试时间判断的主要线索,被试的产生时距随着等待时距的增加而延长。间断实验中表现出极其显著的提示线索效应,此效应既增加了时距估计的变异,又延长了被试的时距估计。无间断实验条件下,被试表现出显著的间断期望效应,被试对间断的期望有损于时间估计。     

时距估计年龄差异的认知机制

采用双任务的实验范式,通过对（5s、13s和26s）三个目标时距的产生法和复制法的结果来探讨时距估计年龄差异的认知机制。实验结果表明,在不同目标时距和不同的估计方法上均存在显著的年龄效应。年老被试在产生法上比年轻被试显著高估时距,存在非时间任务和年龄的交互作用,随着任务难度的增加年老被试会比年轻被试产生更长的时距。而在复制法上年老被试比年轻被试显著低估时距,但是只有在长时距条件下（26s）存在非时间任务和年龄的交互作用。本研究结果表明年老被试在产生法上对时距的高估可能与内部时钟减慢和注意资源减少有关,而在复制法上对时距的低估可能反映注意资源的减少。此外,对于长时距的时间复制,情节记忆的损伤也是导致时距估计年龄差异的一个可能原因。     

任务熟悉度对回溯式时距估计的影响

以64名大学生为被试,使用对汉字进行知觉判断的任务,探讨熟悉度、时距估计方法、性别和加工深度对回溯式时距估计的影响。结果发现:(1)熟悉度对回溯式时距估计没有影响。(2)相对于结构加工任务,被试更加倾向于低估意义加工任务的时距。(3)在结构加工任务中,复制法的时距估计误差绝对值小于口头估计法。(4)男性在结构加工任务中的时距估计误差小于女性。研究表明熟悉度对时距估计的影响可能并非普遍现象。     

Anchoring in time estimation

In two experiments, an anchoring account of the misestimation of future task duration was tested. This account states that such misestimation occurs because previous task duration serves as an anchor for predictions, leading to underestimation when a longer task follows a shorter one and overestimation when a shorter task follows a longer one. Before estimating the duration of a focal task, participants selected a figure (anchor) of a longer or shorter duration produced by other participants in previous research on the same task (Experiment 1) or a different task (Experiment 2). In both experiments, misestimation differed according to the relative duration of the anchor to the focal task. Underestimation occurred with the shorter anchor and overestimation occurred with the longer one, suggesting that estimates were distorted in the direction of the anchors. This finding is discussed in relation to the role of prior task experience in moderating this anchoring effect.     

Anchors distort estimates of expected duration

This research explored the effect of presenting participants an anchor, which is a salient standard of comparison, before asking them to estimate the amount of time they believe they will need to complete a task (expected duration estimation). Such anchors can be assumed to be common in real-life situations, e.g., duration suggestions made by work colleagues. Participants were 32 students (M age = 23.1 yr., SD = 3.2; 28 women) who received course credit for participating. In the presence or absence of one of two anchors they had to estimate how much time they would need to work on a catalogue task. Actual time needed for the task was also measured. As predicted, analysis showed that estimates of expected duration were distorted in the direction of the anchors, i.e., estimations were assimilated into the presented anchor value. The implications for time management are discussed.     

Anchors aweigh: a demonstration of cross-modality anchoring and magnitude priming

Research has shown that judgments tend to assimilate to irrelevant "anchors." We extend anchoring effects to show that anchors can even operate across modalities by, apparently, priming a general sense of magnitude that is not moored to any unit or scale. An initial study showed that participants drawing long "anchor" lines made higher numerical estimates of target lengths than did those drawing shorter lines. We then replicated this finding, showing that a similar pattern was obtained even when the target estimates were not in the dimension of length. A third study showed that an anchor's length relative to its context, and not its absolute length, is the key to predicting the anchor's impact on judgments. A final study demonstrated that magnitude priming (priming a sense of largeness or smallness) is a plausible mechanism underlying the reported effects. We conclude that the boundary conditions of anchoring effects may be much looser than previously thought, with anchors operating across modalities and dimensions to bias judgment.     

The long and short of it: physical anchoring effects

Attempts to reconstruct the magnitude of recently encountered physical stimuli were influenced by the provision of physical anchors. Whether estimating length, weight, or loudness, those increasing the magnitude of a relatively small (short, light, or quiet) physical anchor produced estimates that were reliably lower than did those decreasing the magnitude of a relatively large (long, heavy, or loud) anchor. Estimates produced without an anchor were also low, suggesting that when people physically adjust upwards from a self‐selected starting point, “no anchor” may, in fact, act as a very low anchor. Physical anchors appear to influence estimates of recently encountered physical stimuli, much as numerical anchors influence estimates of more abstract numerical quantities. Implications for processes underlying anchoring, adjustment, and related tasks are discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The De‐biasing Effect of Incidental Anger on Other‐provided Anchors

The current research investigates the effect of incidental anger on anchoring bias. We hypothesized that feeling angry will make people less influenced by other‐provided anchors because of the moving against action tendency associated with anger. That is, individuals in an angry state will be likely to perceive a given anchor as a viable target for their desire to attack and actively seek out anchor‐inconsistent information, thereby committing less anchoring bias. To examine our hypothesis, in Study 1, we manipulated emotions using film clips and administered a general knowledge task with other‐provided anchors. As predicted, participants in the anger condition showed less anchoring bias to the other‐provided anchors than those in the sad or neutral condition. Study 2 replicated the finding with a different emotion manipulation technique and different anchoring questions. More important, consistent with the moving against action tendency explanation, we also found that people in an angry state committed more anchoring bias for self‐generated anchors, compared with people in a sad or neutral state. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic by children

Two studies are discussed in which children's use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic was considered. Study one is a modification of the classic multiplication task devised by Kahneman and Tversky (1974). Results indicate that children in grades 4, 6, 8 and adults are affected by the order of numbers provided in an addition task. In addition, younger children display the tendency to over adjust, yielding higher estimates. In the second study, third and fifth grade participants and adults were provided anchors and estimated the number of jellybeans in a glass container. A main effect for condition is indicated, with lower anchors leading to lower estimates. Results of both studies are consistent with the an anchoring and adjustment explanation.     

Use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic by children

Two studies are discussed in which children's use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic was considered. Study one is a modification of the classic multiplication task devised by Kahneman and Tversky (1974). Results indicate that children in grades 4, 6, 8 and adults are affected by the order of numbers provided in an addition task. In addition, younger children display the tendency to over adjust, yielding higher estimates. In the second study, third and fifth grade participants and adults were provided anchors and estimated the number of jellybeans in a glass container. A main effect for condition is indicated, with lower anchors leading to lower estimates. Results of both studies are consistent with the an anchoring and adjustment explanation.