有中介的调节模型检验方法：甄别和整合*

在心理和教育研究中,经常遇到调节和中介效应。模型包含不止3个变量时,可能同时包含调节和中介变量,一种常见的模型是有中介的调节模型。本文评介了文献上可以找到的五种检验有中介的调节模型的方法,逐一甄别,指出其中一些不合理之处,并推荐较好的方法。整合其中主要方法,总结出检验有中介的调节模型的流程,用偏差校正的百分位 Bootstrap 法或马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗法检验其中的中介效应,并用一个实际例子演示如何用此流程检验有中介的调节模型。     

有调节的中介模型检验方法：竞争还是替补?

在心理和其他社科研究领域, 经常遇到中介和调节变量。模型的变量多于3个时, 可能同时包含中介和调节变量, 一种常见的模型是有调节的中介模型。本文检视文献上各种检验有调节的中介模型的方法, 理清方法之间是竞争关系(分清优劣)还是替补关系(分清先后), 在此基础上总结出检验有调节的中介模型的步骤, 并用一个实例进行演示。文中也讨论了有调节的中介模型与有中介的调节模型的联系与区别。     

有中介的调节变量和有调节的中介变量

研究了有中介的调节效应模型和有调节的中介效应模型,两种模型都涉及到中介变量和调节变量。分别讨论了这两种模型的分析方法,两者基本上都是按中介效应模型的分析步骤,但其中都有一步要做调节效应的分析。还讨论了同时包含有中介的调节变量和有调节的中介变量的混合模型。最后,作为示范例子,用混合模型分析儿童行为对同伴关系的影响,结果发现,如果混合模型中的调节都设定是线性的,那么调节变量对因果关系是二次调节     

基于结构方程模型的有调节的中介效应分析

有调节的中介模型是中介过程受到调节变量影响的模型。指出了目前有调节的中介效应分析普遍存在的问题：当前有调节的中介效应检验大多使用多元线性回归分析,忽略了测量误差;而基于结构方程模型(SEM)的有调节的中介效应分析需要产生乘积指标,又会面临乘积指标生成和乘积项非正态分布的问题。在简介潜调节结构方程(LMS)方法后,建议使用LMS方法得到偏差校正的bootstrap置信区间来进行基于SEM的有调节的中介效应分析。总结出一个有调节的中介SEM分析流程,并有示例和相应的Mplus程序。文末展望了LMS和有调节的中介模型的发展方向。     

第二类有中介的调节模型

心理学研究常用有中介的调节模型揭示调节作用通过中介变量间接实现的现象。介绍了第二类有中介的调节模型(meMO-II)的概念及优势; 将meMO-II与其它中介调节混合模型进行了辨析; 给出了meMO-II的建模方法和分析流程, 并用一个实例演示; 介绍了基于潜变量的meMO-II的分析方法、meMO-II建模方法的新进展以及meMO-II的变式。研究有助于推动调节机制研究的发展。     

有中介的调节模型的拓展及其效应量

传统的有中介的调节(mediated moderation, meMO)模型关于误差方差齐性的假设经常被违背, 应用研究中也缺乏测量meMO效应大小的指标。对于单层数据, 本文借助于两层建模的思想, 提出了一种可用于处理方差非齐性的两层有中介的调节(2meMO)模型; 给出了用于测量meMO分析中总调节效应、直接调节效应和有中介调节效应大小的效应量。通过Monte Carlo模拟研究, 比较了meMO和2meMO模型在参数和效应量估计上的表现。并通过实际案例解释了2meMO模型的应用以及效应量的计算和解释。     

中介效应的三类区间估计方法

由于中介效应ab的估计量通常不是正态分布, 因此需用不对称置信区间进行中介效应分析。详述了三类获得不对称置信区间的方法, 包括乘积分布法(M法和经验M法)、Bootstrap方法(偏差校正和未校正的非参数百分位Bootstrap方法、偏差校正和未校正的参数百分位残差Bootstrap方法)和马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)方法。比较了三类方法在单层(简单和多重)和多层中介效应分析中的表现, 发现三类方法的表现相近, 与乘积分布法相比, 偏差校正的百分位Bootstrap方法表现较好, 但有先验信息的MCMC方法能更有效降低均方误。最后对中介效应不对称置信区间研究的拓展方向做了展望。     

社会阶层与大学生网络利他行为:一个有调节的中介模型

采用问卷法对813名大学生进行调查,探讨社会阶层、公正世界信念、网络社会支持与大学生网络利他行为之间的关系及内在作用机制。结果发现：（1）客观社会阶层不能显著预测网络利他行为,主观社会阶层能正向预测网络利他行为;（2）公正世界信念在主观社会阶层与网络利他行为的关系中起部分中介作用;（3）网络社会支持调节了公正世界信念的中介作用。对于高网络社会支持个体,公正世界信念起部分中介作用;而对于低网络社会支持个体,公正世界信念的中介效应不显著,主观社会阶层对网络利他行为只有直接效应。     

社会阶层与大学生网络利他行为:一个有调节的中介模型

采用问卷法对813名大学生进行调查,探讨社会阶层、公正世界信念、网络社会支持与大学生网络利他行为之间的关系及内在作用机制。结果发现：（1）客观社会阶层不能显著预测网络利他行为,主观社会阶层能正向预测网络利他行为;（2）公正世界信念在主观社会阶层与网络利他行为的关系中起部分中介作用;（3）网络社会支持调节了公正世界信念的中介作用。对于高网络社会支持个体,公正世界信念起部分中介作用;而对于低网络社会支持个体,公正世界信念的中介效应不显著,主观社会阶层对网络利他行为只有直接效应。     

常见的类别变量的有调节的中介模型分析

社科研究领域常用到类别变量的中介和调节效应分析。如果中介和调节整合在一起,当自变量或调节变量为类别变量时,应当如何进行有调节的中介效应分析呢？以两阶段被调节的中介模型为例,详述了类别自变量或类别调节变量的有调节的中介效应分析的方法,接着用实际例子演示如何进行分析,并给出了相应的Mplus程序。最后展望了未来的拓展方向,包括模型拓展、变量拓展（二分因变量）和类别变量的编码拓展。     

Mediating and Moderating Processes in the Relation between Maltreatment and Psychopathology: Mother-Child Relationship Quality and Emotion Regulation

The present study investigated underlying processes of the effect of maltreatment on psychopathology (i.e., internalizing and externalizing problems) in a group of 111 maltreated and 110 nonmaltreated 7–10 year-old children (60% boys). We tested the moderating and/or mediating roles of emotion regulation and the mother-child relationship quality (pattern of relatedness) using Structural Equation Modeling. Emotion regulation, but not the pattern of relatedness, mediated the relation between maltreatment and psychopathology. This mediation was moderated by the pattern of relatedness: For the group of children with an insecure pattern of relatedness, maltreatment was related to lower levels of emotion regulation, which was predictive of higher levels of internalizing and externalizing symptomatology. In contrast, for the secure relatedness group, there was no mediation by emotion regulation since the impact of maltreatment on emotion regulation was not significant. Implications of the mediating role of emotion regulation and the buffering role of the mother-child relationship quality were discussed.

Prospective relations among preschoolers' play,coping, and adjustment as moderated by stressful events

This study evaluated the prospective contribution of preschoolers' pretend play to observer reports of internalizing and externalizing behavior problems one year later, as mediated by observed coping flexibility during a delay of gratification task and as moderated by children's exposure to stressful life events. Preschoolers' (N = 250; M_age = 49.05 months, SD = 2.95; 50% female) fantasy and affect expression in pretend play were assessed during a laboratory visit. Moderated mediation models tested for conditional indirect effects of play fantasy and affect expression on behavior problems through coping flexibility as a function of the child's exposure to stress. Preschoolers' fantasy and negative affect expression in pretend play predicted lower rates of internalizing, but not externalizing, problems. Coping flexibility partially mediated this relation, particularly among children with relatively more life stress. These findings clarify processes by which, and contexts within which, preschoolers' pretend play influences later behavioral adjustment.     

Focus on opportunities as a mediator of the relationships between age, job complexity, and work performance

Focus on opportunities is a cognitive-motivational facet of occupational future time perspective that describes how many new goals, options, and possibilities individuals expect to have in their personal work-related futures. This study examined focus on opportunities as a mediator of the relationships between age and work performance and between job complexity and work performance. In addition, it was expected that job complexity buffers the negative relationship between age and focus on opportunities and weakens the negative indirect effect of age on work performance. Results of mediation, moderation, and moderated mediation analyses with data collected from 168 employees in 41 organizations (mean age = 40.22 years, SD = 10.43, range = 19–64 years) as well as 168 peers providing work performance ratings supported the assumptions. The findings suggest that future studies on the role of age for work design and performance should take employees’ focus on opportunities into account.