行为决策中的基线比例忽略：心理机制与影响因素

基线比例忽略是指个体进行决策和判断时不能充分利用或者忽略基线比例而偏好新信息的现象。该现象普遍存在于日常行为与决策的许多领域,尤其显著表现在临床医疗领域,因此对这一现象的研究具有重要的应用价值。目前,基线比例忽略的心理机制主要有双加工理论和因果贝叶斯框架等。基线比例忽略的影响因素主要包括认知能力、年龄、基线比例的表述形式等。未来的研究需要从基线比例忽略的神经机制、影响因素以及应用研究的拓展等方面着手。     

心理距离对基线比例忽略的影响

基线比例忽略是指在不确定情境中, 个体进行判断和决策时不能充分利用或者忽略基线比例的现象。本研究通过系列情境实验探索了三种不同维度的心理距离, 即时间距离、空间距离和社会距离对基线比例忽略的影响。结果发现, 三种心理距离均能够对基线比例忽略产生影响：当时间距离、空间距离和社会距离较近时, 个体更容易表现出基线比例忽略现象; 而当时间距离、空间距离和社会距离较远时, 个体的基线比例忽略倾向减弱。     

空间推理的脑机制：一项ERP研究

记录14名正常成人完成四种空间推理及一种基线任务（记忆任务）时的事件相关电位,对空间推理的脑电活动情况进行考察。研究结果表明,在200ms-900ms窗口,推理任务比基线任务诱发更大的正成分。对不同推理任务的比较表明,具体与抽象材料的单模型推理诱发相似的波形;单模型与有效的双模型任务诱发的ERP成分明显不同,在300ms-600ms窗口,后者比前者诱发更大的正波;在200-600ms时间窗口,存在有效结论与无有效结论的双模型问题也诱发明显不同的ERP波形。研究的结果表明,推理与记忆涉及不同的加工要求,推理需要整合前提的信息,而记忆只需要储存前提信息。在解决双模型推理问题时,从200ms开始,被试就对刺激材料进行初步的加工与判断,随后对双模型问题采用有注解的单模型加工策略。另外,不同材料的空间推理任务之间的波形较为一致,表明视觉表象并未明显影响空间推理过程。     

传递性推理的ERP研究

以抽象的内容作为实验材料,测定15名大学生在完成三种不同类型的传递性推理任务和基线任务(记忆判断任务)时的事件相关电位(ERP),探讨传递性推理过程的脑内时程动态变化。研究发现,三种推理任务所诱发的波形基本一致,而推理任务与基线任务之间的ERP波形存在明显的差异。这说明对于传递性推理,被试可能是根据视觉的空间表征对信息进行加工的,结果进一步支持了心理模型理论。     

道德判断中心理状态和事件因果关系的作用:兼对道德判断双加工过程理论的检验

考察青少年儿童和成人在道德判断中利用心理状态和事件因果关系信息的差异,并验证道德判断双加工过程理论.以道德判断中“行为坏的”程度和“应担负的道德责任程度”作为判断问题类型,共有10～11岁和13～15岁的青少年儿童及大学生各120名,完成道德判断测试任务.结果表明在不同的道德判断问题类型下,事件中他人愿望和信念、因果关系信息的作用模式是不同的,支持道德判断双加工过程理论.10～11岁儿童和13～15岁青少年在判断行为坏的程度时,利用心理状态信息和因果关系信息与成人类似.在判断应担负的道德责任程度时,10～11岁儿童更注重行为结果,并且不能综合应用心理状态信息和事件的因果关系信息.13～15岁青少年的道德判断中心理状态信息和事件因果关系信息的作用与成人的情况类似,但在进行应担负的道德责任程度判断时,还不能融合信念与因果关系信息进行道德判断.研究结果为道德判断双加工过程理论提供了支持,而且表明从儿童青少年到成人,利用心理状态和因果关系信息进行道德判断存在不断发展和成熟的过程.     

一种混合型前瞻记忆的加工机制

通过两个实验, 对以往研究忽略的一种基于事件进行反应、且具有时间线索的混合型前瞻记忆的加工过程进行考察。结果表明, 这种混合型的前瞻记忆可以通过控制加工或自动加工提取, 还可能两种加工交替存在, 被试在执行过程中, 根据时间信息, 有选择地、动态地将注意资源投入于不同时间段, 现有理论不能解释这种现象。对多重加工理论进行补充, 使之能够解释这种混合型前瞻记忆的加工机制。     

关于条件推理的ERP研究

以抽象的条件命题作为实验材料,测定13名大学生在完成MP、AC、DA、MT推理（推测判断任务）和基线任务（记忆判断任务）时的事件相关电位（ERP）,初步探讨不同推理类型的脑内时程动态变化。这是使用ERP技术来研究条件推理脑机制的初步尝试。结果发现,五种任务所诱发的ERP早成分均不存在显著差异,在头皮前部的左外侧额区和左颞区,MP与DA推理与基线任务相比,均诱发一个更明显的晚期正成分（450-1100ms）,在右外侧额区则诱发一个更明显的晚期负成分（450~1100ms）;与之相反,MT与AC推理与基线任务相比,在左侧诱发一个更明显的晚期负成分（450~1100ms）,在右侧诱发一个更明显的晚期正成分（450~1100ms）,这一结果可能是由于左右脑在推理中的认知功能以及四种推理类型之间存在的差异所致,同时也表明推测过程主要激活了左右侧的前额部、颞叶等区域,基本支持Goel等人的双加工理论     

说服效应的理论模型、影响因素与应对策略

说服效应是指面临说服性信息时, 个体态度发生转变并影响其决策行为的一种现象, 该现象普遍存在于政治选举、生活消费及商业广告等领域, 具有重要的应用价值。说服效应的两个主要理论模型包括双加工模型和自我功效理论。信息源的可信度、情绪、信息框架、社会网络、事件卷入度等是影响说服效应的主要因素。说服效应的应对策略包括公开承诺和自我控制。未来的研究应该从说服效应的产生根源、特征成分及应用领域等方面进行深入地探讨。     

坏念头，罪几何？意图信息的强弱变化对大学生道德判断的影响

成人在对他人的行为进行道德判断时,对意图和结果信息的利用存在不稳定的现象。Cushman提出道德判断双加工过程理论,认为当存在重大负性后果时,需要综合考虑意图和结果信息;而当不存在负性后果时,主要关注意图信息。本研究通过句式变化操控意图信息的明显性,分别考察了两组大学生在对道德情景进行判断时意图信息强弱变化所造成的影响,结果发现：（1）对中性行为进行道德判断时,突显负性意图信息后被试会增加道德谴责;（2）对负性行为进行道德判断时,道德谴责程度没有因意图信息明显性的改变而发生显著变化。此研究结果表明,在行为结果为中性时,人们主要利用意图的信息做出道德判断,但此时对负性意图的谴责程度并不稳定,容易受明显性变化的干扰。     

祈使句和反问句中双重否定的加工机制

采用句-图匹配范式,以可预测对立意义的句子和图片为实验材料,考察汉语双重否定的加工方式以及句子的形式与语义对句子加工的影响,包括2个实验。研究发现：（1）双重否定是整体加工的;（2）在理解初期（250ms）,否定反问句、双重否定祈使句与肯定祈使句的加工模式一致,都是直接表征事件的实际状态;（3）当句子形式与语义不一致时,读者更多地受到句子语义的影响。这表明,在双重否定加工机制的理论解释中,命题表征理论忽略语义,注重句子形式结构,而基于经验模拟理论的两步模拟假设则立足语义,忽略句子形式结构,两者都有一定的合理性,但也都存在一定的片面性。     

Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes

The phenomenon of base-rate neglect has elicited much debate. One arena of debate concerns how people make judgments under conditions of uncertainty. Another more controversial arena concerns human rationality. In this target article, we attempt to unpack the perspectives in the literature on both kinds of issues and evaluate their ability to explain existing data and their conceptual coherence. From this evaluation we conclude that the best account of the data should be framed in terms of a dual-process model of judgment, which attributes base-rate neglect to associative judgment strategies that fail to adequately represent the set structure of the problem. Base-rate neglect is reduced when problems are presented in a format that affords accurate representation in terms of nested sets of individuals.     

Dual-process morality and the personal/impersonal distinction: A reply to McGuire, Langdon, Coltheart, and Mackenzie

A substantial body of research supports a dual-process theory of moral judgment, according to which characteristically deontological judgments are driven by automatic emotional responses, while characteristically utilitarian judgments are driven by controlled cognitive processes. This theory was initially supported by neuroimaging and reaction time (RT) data. McGuire et al. have reanalyzed these initial RT data and claim that, in light of their findings, the dual-process theory of moral judgment and the personal/impersonal distinction now lack support. While McGuire and colleagues have convincingly overturned Greene et al.’s interpretation of their original RT data, their claim that the dual-process theory now lacks support overstates the implications of their findings. McGuire and colleagues ignore the results of several more recent behavioral studies, including the study that bears most directly on their critique. They dismiss without adequate justification the results of a more recent neuroimaging study, three more recent patient studies, and an emotion-induction study. Their broader critique is based largely on their conflation of the dual-process theory with the personal/impersonal distinction, which are independent.     

公正判断中的“非理性”：加工特征、主要表现和影响因素

公正判断中的“非理性”研究是社会认知双过程加工理论在公正领域的拓展, 也是不确定性管理和道德心理研究的延续。就加工过程而言, 个体的公正判断可能同时依存“理性”和“非理性”两个结构和进化都不同的认知体系。置换过程、首因效应、极端判断、补偿偏见、责备无辜受害者和道德命令效应是公正判断中“非理性”的主要表现。自我因素、公正敏感性、道德认同、情绪状态和公正世界信念等个体变量是其主要影响因素。综合来看, 目前公正判断的“非理性”研究还比较庞杂, 其进化根源、生理机制、如何与理性过程交互作用等还有待深入研究。此外, 结合社会现实问题、关注第三方视角、多理论解释的整合及多水平因素的交互影响可能是未来的研究方向。     

Positive and negative remember judgments and ROCs in the plurals paradigm: Evidence for alternative decision strategies

Using old-new ratings and remember-know judgments we explored the plurals paradigm, in which studied words must be distinguished from plurality-changed lures. The paradigm allowed us to investigate negative remembering—that is, the remembering of a plural-altered study item; capacity for this judgment was found to be poorer than or equivalent to the conventional positive remembering. A response-bias manipulation affected positive but not negative remembering. The ratings were used to construct ROC curves and test the prediction of the most common dual-process theory of recognition memory (Yonelinas, 2001) that the amount of recollection can be independently estimated from ROC curves and from remember judgments. By fitting the individual data with pure signal detection theory (SDT) models and dual-process models that combined SDT and high-threshold components (HTSDT), we identified two types of subjects. For those who were better described by HTSDT, the predicted convergence of remember-know and ROC measures was observed. For those who were better described by SDT, the ROC intercept could not predict the remember rate. The data are consistent with the idea that all subjects rely on the same representation but base their decisions on different partitions of a decision space.     

Seeing is believing: Priors,trust, and base rate neglect

Kahneman and Tversky (1973) described an effect they called ‘insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes’, later dubbed base rate neglect, which describes people’s tendency to underweight prior information in favor of new data. As probability theory requires that prior probabilities be taken into account, via Bayes’ theorem, the fact that most people fail to do so has been taken as evidence of human irrationality and, by others, of a mismatch between our cognitive processes and the questions being asked (Cosmides & Tooby, 1996). In contrast to both views, we suggest that simplistic Bayesian updating using base rates is not necessarily rational. To that end, we present experiments in which base rate neglect is often the right strategy, and show that people’s base rate usage varies systematically as a function of the extent to which the data that make up a base rate are perceived as trustworthy.     

The sound-board account of reasoning: A one-system alternative to dual-process theory

In order to explain the effects found in the heuristics and biases literature, dual-process theories of reasoning claim that human reasoning is of two kinds: Type-1 processing is fast, automatic, and associative, while Type-2 reasoning is slow, controlled, and rule based. If human reasoning is so divided, it would have important consequences for morality, epistemology, and philosophy of mind. Although dual-process theorists have typically argued for their position by way of an inference to the best explanation, they have generally failed to consider alternative hypotheses. Worse still, it is unclear how we might test dual-process theories. In this article, I offer a one-system theory, which I call the Sound-Board Account of Reasoning, according to which there is one reasoning system which is flexible, allowing the properties used to distinguished Type-1 and Type-2 reasoning to cross-cut one another. I empirically distinguish my theory from the two dominant versions of dual-process theory (parallel-competitive and default-interventionist dual-process theory) and argue that my theory’s predictions are confirmed over both of these versions of dual-process theory.     

Cognitive load selectively interferes with utilitarian moral judgment

Traditional theories of moral development emphasize the role of controlled cognition in mature moral judgment, while a more recent trend emphasizes intuitive and emotional processes. Here we test a dual-process theory synthesizing these perspectives. More specifically, our theory associates utilitarian moral judgment (approving of harmful actions that maximize good consequences) with controlled cognitive processes and associates non-utilitarian moral judgment with automatic emotional responses. Consistent with this theory, we find that a cognitive load manipulation selectively interferes with utilitarian judgment. This interference effect provides direct evidence for the influence of controlled cognitive processes in moral judgment, and utilitarian moral judgment more specifically.     

时间与金钱概念对消费者购买决策的不同影响及其心理机制

时间与金钱是影响人们消费行为决策的两种不同的重要资源。消费者在进行产品购买时, 常常会受到商家广告语和购物环境中所隐含的时间或金钱概念的影响, 从而做出不同的决策。具体而言, 时间与金钱概念会对消费者的购前决策、购中决策及购后决策三个方面产生不同的影响。从双加工理论的角度来看, 产生这种不同影响背后的心理机制在于时间与金钱概念启动了个体不同的认知加工方式和思维定势, 进而影响了消费者不同的购买决策。未来的研究方向有：(1)细化时间和金钱概念启动对消费者购买决策的不同影响; (2)考虑时间与金钱的权衡对购买决策的影响; (3)进一步探究时间和金钱概念的激活对购前决策的不同影响; (4)探讨时间概念与金钱概念对购买决策不同影响的神经机制。