Reasoning defeasibly about probabilities

In concrete applications of probability, statistical investigation gives us knowledge of some probabilities, but we generally want to know many others that are not directly revealed by our data. For instance, we may know prob(P/Q) (the probability of P given Q) and prob(P/R), but what we really want is prob(P/Q&;R), and we may not have the data required to assess that directly. The probability calculus is of no help here. Given prob(P/Q) and prob(P/R), it is consistent with the probability calculus for prob(P/Q&;R) to have any value between 0 and 1. Is there any way to make a reasonable estimate of the value of prob(P/Q&;R)? A related problem occurs when probability practitioners adopt undefended assumptions of statistical independence simply on the basis of not seeing any connection between two propositions. This is common practice, but its justification has eluded probability theorists, and researchers are typically apologetic about making such assumptions. Is there any way to defend the practice? This paper shows that on a certain conception of probability—nomic probability—there are principles of “probable probabilities” that license inferences of the above sort. These are principles telling us that although certain inferences from probabilities to probabilities are not deductively valid, nevertheless the second-order probability of their yielding correct results is 1. This makes it defeasibly reasonable to make the inferences. Thus I argue that it is defeasibly reasonable to assume statistical independence when we have no information to the contrary. And I show that there is a function Y(r, s, a) such that if prob(P/Q) = r, prob(P/R) = s, and prob(P/U) = a (where U is our background knowledge) then it is defeasibly reasonable to expect that prob(P/Q&;R) = Y(r, s, a). Numerous other defeasible inferences are licensed by similar principles of probable probabilities. This has the potential to greatly enhance the usefulness of probabilities in practical application.     

<Literal>flankr</Literal>: An R package implementing computational models of attentional selectivity

The Eriksen flanker task (Eriksen and Eriksen, Perception & Psychophysics, 16, 143–149, 1974) is a classic test in cognitive psychology of visual selective attention. Two recent computational models have formalised the dynamics of the apparent increasing attentional selectivity during stimulus processing, but with very different theoretical underpinnings: The shrinking spotlight (SSP) model (White et al., Cognitive Psychology, 210–238, 2011) assumes attentional selectivity improves in a gradual, continuous manner; the dual stage two phase (DSTP) model (Hübner et al., Psychological Review, 759–784, 2010) assumes attentional selectivity changes from a low- to a high-mode of selectivity at a discrete time-point. This paper presents an R package—flankr—that instantiates both computational models. flankr allows the user to simulate data from both models, and to fit each model to human data. flankr provides statistics of the goodness-of-fit to human data, allowing users to engage in competitive model comparison of the DSTP and the SSP models on their own data. It is hoped that the utility of flankr lies in allowing more researchers to engage in the important issue of the dynamics of attentional selectivity.     

The metaphysics of goodness in the ethics of Aristotle

Kraut (Against absolute goodness. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2011) and other neo-Aristotelians have argued that there is no such thing as absolute goodness. They admit only good in a kind, e.g. a good sculptor, and good for something, e.g. good for fish. What is the view of Aristotle? Mostly limiting myself to the Nicomachean Ethics (NE), I argue that Aristotle is committed to things being absolutely good and also to a metaphysics of absolute goodness where there is a maximally best good that is the cause of the goodness of all other things in virtue of being their end. I begin (in Sect. 2) by suggesting that the notion of good as an end, which is present in the first lines of the NE, is not obviously accounted for by good in a kind or good for something. I then give evidence that good in a kind (in Sect. 3) and good for something (in Sect. 4) can explain neither certain distinctions drawn between virtues nor the determinacy ascribed to what is good “in itself.” I argue (in Sect. 5) contra Gotthelf (2012) that because several important arguments in the Nicomachean Ethics rely on comparative judgments of absolute value—e.g. “Man is the best of all animals”—Aristotle is committed to the existence of both absolute goodness and an absolutely best being. I focus (in Sect. 6) on one passage, Aristotle’s division of goods in NE I 12, which presupposes this metaphysical picture.     

The Factor Structure of the Forms of Self-Criticising/Attacking &amp; Self-Reassuring Scale in Thirteen Distinct Populations

There is considerable evidence that self-criticism plays a major role in the vulnerability to and recovery from psychopathology. Methods to measure this process, and its change over time, are therefore important for research in psychopathology and well-being. This study examined the factor structure of a widely used measure, the Forms of Self-Criticising/Attacking & Self-Reassuring Scale in thirteen nonclinical samples (N?=?7510) from twelve different countries: Australia (N?= 319), Canada (N?= 383), Switzerland (N?= 230), Israel (N?=?476), Italy (N?=?389), Japan (N?=?264), the Netherlands (N?=?360), Portugal (N?=?764), Slovakia (N?=?1326), Taiwan (N?=?417), the United Kingdom 1 (N?=?1570), the United Kingdom 2 (N?=?883), and USA (N?=?331). This study used more advanced analyses than prior reports: a bifactor item-response theory model, a two-tier item-response theory model, and a non-parametric item-response theory (Mokken) scale analysis. Although the original three-factor solution for the FSCRS (distinguishing between Inadequate-Self, Hated-Self, and Reassured-Self) had an acceptable fit, two-tier models, with two general factors (Self-criticism and Self-reassurance) demonstrated the best fit across all samples. This study provides preliminary evidence suggesting that this two-factor structure can be used in a range of nonclinical contexts across countries and cultures. Inadequate-Self and Hated-Self might not by distinct factors in nonclinical samples. Future work may benefit from distinguishing between self-correction versus shame-based self-criticism.     

Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Computerized Cognitive Training on Executive Functions: a Cross-Disciplinary Taxonomy for Classifying Outcome Cognitive Factors

The growing prevalence of neurodegenerative disorders associated with aging and cognitive decline has generated increasing cross-disciplinary interest in non-pharmacological interventions, such as computerized cognitive training (CCT), which may prevent or slow cognitive decline. However, inconsistent findings across meta-analytic reviews in the field suggest a lack of cross-disciplinary consensus and on-going debate regarding the benefits of CCT. We posit that a contributing factor is the lack of a theoretically-based taxonomy of constructs and representative tasks typically used. An integration of the Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) taxonomy of broad and narrow cognitive factors and the Miyake unity-diversity theory of executive functions (EF) is proposed (CHC-M) as an attempt to clarify this issue through representing and integrating the disciplines contributing to CCT research. The present study assessed the utility of this taxonomy by reanalyzing the Lampit et al. (2014) meta-analysis of CCT in healthy older adults using the CHC-M framework. Results suggest that: 1) substantively different statistical effects are observed when CHC-M is applied to the Lampit et al. meta-analytic review, leading to importantly different interpretations of the data; 2) typically-used classification practices conflate Executive Function (EF) tasks with fluid reasoning (Gf) and retrieval fluency (Gr), and Attention with sensory perception; and 3) there is theoretical and practical advantage in differentiating attention and working-memory tasks into the narrow shifting, inhibition, and updating EF domains. Implications for clinical practice, particularly for our understanding of EF are discussed.     

TreeBUGS: An R package for hierarchical multinomial-processing-tree modeling

Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models are a class of measurement models that account for categorical data by assuming a finite number of underlying cognitive processes. Traditionally, data are aggregated across participants and analyzed under the assumption of independently and identically distributed observations. Hierarchical Bayesian extensions of MPT models explicitly account for participant heterogeneity by assuming that the individual parameters follow a continuous hierarchical distribution. We provide an accessible introduction to hierarchical MPT modeling and present the user-friendly and comprehensive R package TreeBUGS, which implements the two most important hierarchical MPT approaches for participant heterogeneity—the beta-MPT approach (Smith & Batchelder, Journal of Mathematical Psychology 54:167-183, 2010) and the latent-trait MPT approach (Klauer, Psychometrika 75:70-98, 2010). TreeBUGS reads standard MPT model files and obtains Markov-chain Monte Carlo samples that approximate the posterior distribution. The functionality and output are tailored to the specific needs of MPT modelers and provide tests for the homogeneity of items and participants, individual and group parameter estimates, fit statistics, and within- and between-subjects comparisons, as well as goodness-of-fit and summary plots. We also propose and implement novel statistical extensions to include continuous and discrete predictors (as either fixed or random effects) in the latent-trait MPT model.     

The Efficacy of Cognitive Intervention in Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI): a Meta-Analysis of Outcomes on Neuropsychological Measures

Cognitive training in MCI may stimulate pre-existing neural reserves or recruit neural circuitry as “compensatory scaffolding” prompting neuroplastic reorganization to meet task demands (Reuter-Lorenz & Park, 2014). However, existing systematic reviews and meta-analytic studies exploring the benefits of cognitive interventions in MCI have been mixed. An updated examination regarding the efficacy of cognitive intervention in MCI is needed given improvements in adherence to MCI diagnostic criteria in subject selection, better defined interventions and strategies applied, increased use of neuropsychological measures pre- and post-intervention, as well as identification of moderator variables which may influence treatment. As such, this meta-analytic review was conducted to examine the efficacy of cognitive intervention in individuals diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) versus MCI controls based on performance of neuropsychological outcome measures in randomized controlled trials (RCT). RCT studies published from January 1995 to June 2017 were obtained through source databases of MEDLINE-R, PubMed, Healthstar, Global Health, PSYCH-INFO, and Health and Psychological Instruments using search parameters for MCI diagnostic category (mild cognitive impairment, MCI, pre-Alzheimer’s disease, early cognitive decline, early onset Alzheimer’s disease, and preclinical Alzheimer’s disease) and the intervention or training conducted (intervention, training, stimulation, rehabilitation, or treatment). Other inclusion and exclusion criteria included subject selection based on established MCI criteria, RCT design in an outpatient setting, MCI controls (active or passive), and outcomes based on objective neuropsychological measures. From the 1199 abstracts identified, 26 articles met inclusion criteria for the meta-analyses completed across eleven (11) countries; 92.31% of which have been published within the past 7 years. A series of meta-analyses were performed to examine the effects of cognitive intervention by cognitive domain, type of training, and intervention content (cognitive domain targeted). We found significant, moderate effects for multicomponent training (Hedges’ g observed?=?0.398; CI [0.164, 0.631]; Z?=?3.337; p?=?0.001; Q?=?55.511; df?=?15; p?=?0.000; I ² ?=?72.978%; τ ² ?=?0.146) as well as multidomain-focused strategies (Hedges’ g?=?0.230; 95% CI [0.108, 0.352]; Z?=?3.692; p??< 0.001; Q?=?12.713; df?=?12; p?=?0.390; I ² ?=?5.612; τ ² ?=?0.003). The effects for other interventions explored by cognitive domain, training type, or intervention content were indeterminate due to concerns for heterogeneity, bias, and small cell sizes. In addition, subgroup and meta-regression analyses were conducted with the moderators of MCI category, mode of intervention, training type, intervention content, program duration (total hours), type of control group (active or passive), post-intervention follow-up assessment period, and control for repeat administration. We found significant overall effects for intervention content with memory focused interventions appearing to be more effective than multidomain approaches. There was no evidence of an influence on outcomes for the other covariates examined. Overall, these findings suggest individuals with MCI who received multicomponent training or interventions targeting multiple domains (including lifestyle changes) were apt to display an improvement on outcome measures of cognition post-intervention. As such, multicomponent and multidomain forms of intervention may prompt recruitment of alternate neural processes as well as support primary networks to meet task demands simultaneously. In addition, interventions with memory and multidomain forms of content appear to be particularly helpful, with memory-based approaches possibly being more effective than multidomain methods. Other factors, such as program duration, appear to have less of an influence on intervention outcomes. Given this, although the creation of new primary network paths appears strained in MCI, interventions with memory-based or multidomain forms of content may facilitate partial activation of compensatory scaffolding and neuroplastic reorganization. The positive benefit of memory-based strategies may also reflect transfer effects indicative of compensatory network activation and the multiple-pathways involved in memory processes. Limitations of this review are similar to other meta-analysis in MCI, including a modest number studies, small sample sizes, multiple forms of interventions and types of training applied (some overlapping), and, while greatly improved in our view, a large diversity of instruments used to measure outcome. This is apt to have contributed to the presence of heterogeneity and publication bias precluding a more definitive determination of the outcomes observed.     

The Fallaciousness of Threats: Character and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ad Baculum</Emphasis>

Robert Kimball, in “What’s Wrong with Argumentum Ad Baculum?” (Argumentation, 2006) argues that dialogue-based models of rational argumentation do not satisfactorily account for what is objectionable about more malicious uses of threats encountered in some ad baculum arguments. We review the dialogue-based approach to argumentum ad baculum, and show how it can offer more than Kimball thinks for analyzing such threat arguments and ad baculum fallacies.     

Correlative Reasoning about Water in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mengzi</Emphasis> 6A2

Mengzi 孟子 6A2 contains the famous (or infamous) water analogy for the innate goodness of human nature. Some evaluate Mengzi’s reasoning as strong and sophisticated; others, as weak or sophistical. I urge for more nuance in our evaluation. Mengzi’s reasoning fares poorly when judged by contemporary standards of analogical strength. However, if we evaluate the analogy as an instance of correlative thinking within a yin-yang 陰陽 cosmology, his reasoning fares well. That cosmology provides good reason to assert that water tends to flow downward, not because of available empirical evidence, but because water correlates to yin and yin correlates to naturally downward motion. Substantiating these contentions also gives occasion to better understand the nature of correlative reasoning in classical Chinese philosophy.     

Open knowledge and changing the subject

Knowledge is closed under (known) implication, according to standard theories. Orthodoxy can allow, though, that apparent counterexamples to closure exist, much as Kripkeans recognize the existence of illusions of possibility (IPOs) which they seek to explain away. Should not everyone, orthodox or not, want to make sense of “intimations of openness” (IONs)? This paper compares two styles of explanation: (1) evidence that boosts P’s probability need not boost that of its consequence Q; (2) evidence bearing on P’s subject matter may not bear on the subject matter of Q.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">i</Emphasis>Map4: An open source toolbox for the statistical fixation mapping of eye movement data with linear mixed modeling

A major challenge in modern eye movement research is to statistically map where observers are looking, by isolating the significant differences between groups and conditions. As compared to the signals from contemporary neuroscience measures, such as magneto/electroencephalography and functional magnetic resonance imaging, eye movement data are sparser, with much larger variations in space across trials and participants. As a result, the implementation of a conventional linear modeling approach on two-dimensional fixation distributions often returns unstable estimations and underpowered results, leaving this statistical problem unresolved (Liversedge, Gilchrist, & Everling, 2011). Here, we present a new version of the iMap toolbox (Caldara & Miellet, 2011) that tackles this issue by implementing a statistical framework comparable to those developed in state-of-the-art neuroimaging data-processing toolboxes. iMap4 uses univariate, pixel-wise linear mixed models on smoothed fixation data, with the flexibility of coding for multiple between- and within-subjects comparisons and performing all possible linear contrasts for the fixed effects (main effects, interactions, etc.). Importantly, we also introduced novel nonparametric tests based on resampling, to assess statistical significance. Finally, we validated this approach by using both experimental and Monte Carlo simulation data. iMap4 is a freely available MATLAB open source toolbox for the statistical fixation mapping of eye movement data, with a user-friendly interface providing straightforward, easy-to-interpret statistical graphical outputs. iMap4 matches the standards of robust statistical neuroimaging methods and represents an important step in the data-driven processing of eye movement fixation data, an important field of vision sciences.     

Development and Validation of the Knowledge of Parenting Strategies Scale: Measuring Effective Parenting Strategies

The current study aimed to develop and evaluate a measure of parenting knowledge, the Knowledge of Parenting Strategies Scale (KOPSS); specifically, to establish the scales internal reliability, ensure a clinically appropriate length, provide a community sample for future comparison, demonstrate adequate test–retest reliability and convergent validity, and to compare the scale to dysfunctional discipline styles. A total of n?=?865 parents were involved in the development and evaluation of the scale. In Study 1, data was collected from n?=?229 parents and Rasch analyses revealed seven items did not fit the measurement model. Study 2 involved a further sample of community families (n?=?346) and revealed the scale could be further shortened to 16 items. Study 3 revealed the scale has good test–retest reliability over a one-week period (r?=?.88, p?<?.001). Study 4 demonstrated convergent validity through a comparison to the Knowledge of Effective Parenting Scale (r?=?.583, p?=?.009). Study 5 utilised a sample of community families (n?=?190), revealing the scale was negatively correlated with hostile and lax discipline (r?=??.29, p?<?.001; r?=??.15, p?<?.05). Lastly, Study 6 showed scores on the KOPSS significantly improved following clinic-based and Internet-based Behavioural Parent Training. The KOPSS was found to be a valid and reliable measure of parenting knowledge of effective parenting strategies, which can be used to evaluate knowledge acquisition in parenting programs, and test the role of knowledge in behaviour change.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Facet Satisfaction Scale</Emphasis>: an Effective Affective Measure of Job Satisfaction Facets

Purpose

Job satisfaction facets are theoretically and practically important variables. Most existing facet satisfaction scales, however, have two noteworthy limitations—they often do not clearly assess affective content, and they use non-parallel items. In the current paper, we examined the measurement qualities of the Facet Satisfaction Scale (FSS; [Beehr et al. (Journal of Applied Social Psychology 36:1523–1547, 2006)], a measure that may address the limitations of existing facet satisfaction measures.

Design/Methodology/Approach

We conducted four studies to examine the measurement qualities of the FSS: (a) Study 1 examined the FSS’s factor structure, (b) Study 2 examined its test-retest reliability and construct validity, (c) Study 3 further examined its construct validity, and (d) Study 4 examined the extent to which the FSS assesses the affective and cognitive components of job satisfaction.

Findings

We found that the FSS produced the hypothesized five-factor structure and that the FSS subscales each yielded high levels of internal consistency and test-retest reliability. We also found evidence of the construct validity of the FSS subscales, and we found that the FSS subscales are generally effective measures of the affective component of their respective job satisfaction facets.

Implications

As a result of the current findings, we recommend the FSS when researchers wish to measure the affective component of job satisfaction facets.

Originality/Value

Little previous research has examined the FSS’s measurement qualities. The current studies address this gap by providing evidence for the reliability and validity of the FSS. This is of value because the FSS addresses some limitations inherent to other facet satisfaction measures.

     

Brain activation upon ideal-body media exposure and peer feedback in late adolescent girls

Media’s prevailing thin-body ideal plays a vital role in adolescent girls’ body image development, but the co-occurring impact of peer feedback is understudied. The present study used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to test media imagery and peer feedback combinations on neural activity related to thin-body ideals. Twenty-four healthy female late adolescents rated precategorized body sizes of bikini models (too thin or normal), directly followed by ostensible peer feedback (too thin or normal). Consistent with prior studies on social feedback processing, results showed increased brain activity in the dorsal medial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC)/anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and bilateral insula in incongruent situations: when participants rated media models’ body size as normal while peer feedback indicated the models as too thin (or vice versa). This effect was stronger for girls with lower self-esteem. A subsequent behavioral study (N = 34 female late adolescents, separate sample) demonstrated that participants changed behavior in the direction of the peer feedback: precategorized normal sized models were rated as too thin more often after receiving too thin peer feedback. This suggests that the neural responses upon peer feedback may influence subsequent choice. Our results show that media-by-peer interactions have pronounced effects on girls’ body ideals.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Wh</Emphasis>-Questions,Universal Statements and Free Choice Inferences in Child Mandarin

This study investigated 5-year-old Mandarin-speaking children’s comprehension of wh-questions, universal statements and free choice inferences. Previous research has found that Mandarin-speaking children assign a universal interpretation to sentences with a wh-word (e.g., shei ‘who’) followed by the adverbial quantifier dou ‘all’ (Zhou in Appl Psycholinguist 36:411–435, 2013). Children also compute free choice inferences in sentences that contain a modal verb in addition to a wh-word and dou (Zhou, in: Nakayama, Su, Huang (eds.) Studies in Chinese and Japanese language acquisition: in honour of Stephen Crain. John Benjamins Publishing Company, Amsterdam, pp 223–235, 2017). The present study used a Question-Statement Task to assess children’s interpretation of sentences containing shei + dou, both with and without the modal verb beiyunxu ‘was allowed to’, as well as the contrast between sentences with shei + dou, which are statements for adults, versus ones with dou + shei, which are wh-questions for adults. The 5-year-old Mandarin-speaking child participants exhibited adult-like linguistic knowledge of the semantics and pragmatics of wh-words, the adverbial quantifier dou, and the deontic modal verb beiyunxu.     

Reapproaching Ramsey: Conditionals and Iterated Belief Change in the Spirit of AGM

According to the Ramsey Test, conditionals reflect changes of beliefs: α?>?β is accepted in a belief state iff β is accepted in the minimal revision of it that is necessary to accommodate α. Since Gärdenfors’s seminal paper of 1986, a series of impossibility theorems (“triviality theorems”) has seemed to show that the Ramsey test is not a viable analysis of conditionals if it is combined with AGM-type belief revision models. I argue that it is possible to endorse that Ramsey test for conditionals while staying true to the spirit of AGM. A main focus lies on AGM’s condition of Preservation according to which the original belief set should be fully retained after a revision by information that is consistent with it. I use concrete representations of belief states and (iterated) revisions of belief states as semantic models for (nested) conditionals. Among the four most natural qualitative models for iterated belief change, two are identified that indeed allow us to combine the Ramsey test with Preservation in the language containing only flat conditionals of the form α?>?β. It is shown, however, that Preservation for this simple language enforces a violation of Preservation for nested conditionals of the form α?>?(β?>?γ). In such languages, no two belief sets are ordered by strict subset inclusion. I argue that it has been wrong right from the start to expect that Preservation holds in languages containing nested conditionals.     

Anxiety and Depression During Childhood and Adolescence: Testing Theoretical Models of Continuity and Discontinuity

The present study sought to clarify the trajectory (i.e., continuous vs. discontinuous) and expression (i.e., homotypic vs. heterotypic) of anxiety and depressive symptoms across childhood and adolescence. We utilized a state-of-the-science analytic approach to simultaneously test theoretical models that describe the development of internalizing symptoms in youth. In a sample of 636 children (53% female; M _age = 7.04; SD _age = 0.35) self-report measures of anxiety and depression were completed annually by youth through their freshman year of high school. For both anxiety and depression, a piecewise growth curve model provided the best fit for the data, with symptoms decreasing until age 12 (the “developmental knot”) and then increasing into early adolescence. The trajectory of anxiety symptoms was best described by a discontinuous homotypic pattern in which childhood anxiety predicted adolescent anxiety. For depression, two distinct pathways were discovered: A discontinuous homotypic pathway in which childhood depression predicted adolescent depression and a discontinuous heterotypic pathway in which childhood anxiety predicted adolescent depression. Analytical, methodological, and clinical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Bayesian inference with Stan: A tutorial on adding custom distributions

When evaluating cognitive models based on fits to observed data (or, really, any model that has free parameters), parameter estimation is critically important. Traditional techniques like hill climbing by minimizing or maximizing a fit statistic often result in point estimates. Bayesian approaches instead estimate parameters as posterior probability distributions, and thus naturally account for the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation; Bayesian approaches also offer powerful and principled methods for model comparison. Although software applications such as WinBUGS (Lunn, Thomas, Best, & Spiegelhalter, Statistics and Computing, 10, 325–337, 2000) and JAGS (Plummer, 2003) provide “turnkey”-style packages for Bayesian inference, they can be inefficient when dealing with models whose parameters are correlated, which is often the case for cognitive models, and they can impose significant technical barriers to adding custom distributions, which is often necessary when implementing cognitive models within a Bayesian framework. A recently developed software package called Stan (Stan Development Team, 2015) can solve both problems, as well as provide a turnkey solution to Bayesian inference. We present a tutorial on how to use Stan and how to add custom distributions to it, with an example using the linear ballistic accumulator model (Brown & Heathcote, Cognitive Psychology, 57, 153–178. doi: 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2007.12.002, 2008).     

Betting on transitivity in probabilistic causal chains

Causal reasoning is crucial to people’s decision making in probabilistic environments. It may rely directly on data about covariation between variables (correspondence) or on inferences based on reasonable constraints if larger causal models are constructed based on local relations (coherence). For causal chains an often assumed constraint is transitivity. For probabilistic causal relations, mismatches between such transitive inferences and direct empirical evidence may lead to distortions of empirical evidence. Previous work has shown that people may use the generative local causal relations A → B and B → C to infer a positive indirect relation between events A and C, despite data showing that these events are actually independent (von Sydow et al. in Proceedings of the thirty-first annual conference of the cognitive science society. Cognitive Science Society, Austin, 2009, Proceedings of the 32nd annual conference of the cognitive science society. Cognitive Science Society, Austin, 2010, Mem Cogn 44(3):469–487, 2016). Here we used a sequential learning scenario to investigate how transitive reasoning in intransitive situations with negatively related distal events may relate to betting behavior. In three experiments participants bet as if they were influenced by a transitivity assumption, even when the data strongly contradicted transitivity.     

Recognition during recall failure: Semantic feature matching as a mechanism for recognition of semantic cues when recall fails

Research suggests that a feature-matching process underlies cue familiarity-detection when cued recall with graphemic cues fails. When a test cue (e.g., potchbork) overlaps in graphemic features with multiple unrecalled studied items (e.g., patchwork, pitchfork, pocketbook, pullcork), higher cue familiarity ratings are given during recall failure of all of the targets than when the cue overlaps in graphemic features with only one studied target and that target fails to be recalled (e.g., patchwork). The present study used semantic feature production norms (McRae et al., Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, & Computers, 37, 547–559, 2005) to examine whether the same holds true when the cues are semantic in nature (e.g., jaguar is used to cue cheetah). Indeed, test cues (e.g., cedar) that overlapped in semantic features (e.g., a_tree, has_bark, etc.) with four unretrieved studied items (e.g., birch, oak, pine, willow) received higher cue familiarity ratings during recall failure than test cues that overlapped in semantic features with only two (also unretrieved) studied items (e.g., birch, oak), which in turn received higher familiarity ratings during recall failure than cues that did not overlap in semantic features with any studied items. These findings suggest that the feature-matching theory of recognition during recall failure can accommodate recognition of semantic cues during recall failure, providing a potential mechanism for conceptually-based forms of cue recognition during target retrieval failure. They also provide converging evidence for the existence of the semantic features envisaged in feature-based models of semantic knowledge representation and for those more concretely specified by the production norms of McRae et al. (Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, & Computers, 37, 547–559, 2005).