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Idiographic network models based on time‐series data have received recent attention for their ability to model relationships among symptoms and behaviours as they unfold in time within a single individual (cf. Epskamp, Borsboom, & Fried, 2018; Fisher, Medaglia, & Jeronimus, 2018). Rather than examine the correlational relationships between variables in a sample of individuals, an idiographic network examines correlations within a single person, averaged over many time points. Because the approach averages over time, the data must be stationary (i.e. relatively consistent over time). If individuals experience varying states over time—different mixtures of symptoms and behaviours in one moment or another—then averaging over categorically different moments may undermine model accuracy. Fisher and Bosley (2019) address these concerns via the application of Gaussian finite mixture modelling to identify latent classes of time points in intraindividual time‐series data from a sample of adults with major depressive disorder and/or generalised anxiety disorder (n = 45). The present paper outlines an extension of this work, wherein network analysis is used to model within‐class covariation of symptoms. To illustrate this approach, network models were constructed for each intraindividual class identified by Fisher and Bosley (137 networks across the 45 participants, mean classes/person = ~3, range = 2–4 classes/person). We examine the relative consistency in symptom organisation between each individual's multiple mood state networks and assess emergent group‐level patterns. We highlight opportunities for enhanced treatment personalisation and review nomothetic patterns relevant to transdiagnostic conceptualisations of psychopathology. We address opportunities for integrating this approach into clinical practice and outline potential shortcomings.  相似文献   

3.
Two generalizations of the Rasch model are compared: the between-item multidimensional model (Adams, Wilson, and Wang, 1997), and the mixture Rasch model (Mislevy & Verhelst, 1990; Rost, 1990). It is shown that the between-item multidimensional model is formally equivalent with a continuous mixture of Rasch models for which, within each class of the mixture, the item parameters are equal to the item parameters of the multidimensional model up to a shift parameter that is specific for the dimension an item belongs to in the multidimensional model. In a simulation study, the relation between both types of models also holds when the number of classes of the mixture is as small as two. The relation is illustrated with a study on verbal aggression. Frank Rijmen was supported by the Fund for Scientific Research Flanders (FWO). This research is also funded by the GOA/2000/02 granted from the KU Leuven. We would like to thank Kristof Vansteelandt for providing the data of the study on verbal aggression.  相似文献   

4.
    
This research effort aims to investigate the impact of texting on young drivers' behavior and safety based on data from driving simulator experiments, for different driving contexts, like motorways, urban and rural roads, during daytime and night, and for alternative weather conditions (‘clear sky’ and rain). The study offers a complete and comprehensive investigation of the effects of texting on driving behavior, able to provide evidence on policy-making. For the purposes of this study, a driving simulator experiment was carried out where 34 young participants drove predefined driving scenarios. Initially, multivariate copula analysis was used in order to explore statistical inferences among variables, especially since it retains a parametric specification for bivariate dependencies and allows testing of several parametric structures to characterize them. Secondly, alternative copula configurations were tested, which showed that texting and other road and environmental characteristics affect young drivers behavior and in particular more than one outcome can occur at the same time. Finally, Gaussian Mixture Modeling (GMM) was employed, demonstrating that the variables' pairs that presented the strongest correlations were lane departure and speed, as well as speed and reaction time. GMMs application showed that drivers using mobile phones who were involved in a collision presented a different driving behavior compared to the drivers who were occupied but were not involved in a collision.  相似文献   

5.
    
In real testing, examinees may manifest different types of test‐taking behaviours. In this paper we focus on two types that appear to be among the more frequently occurring behaviours – solution behaviour and rapid guessing behaviour. Rapid guessing usually happens in high‐stakes tests when there is insufficient time, and in low‐stakes tests when there is lack of effort. These two qualitatively different test‐taking behaviours, if ignored, will lead to violation of the local independence assumption and, as a result, yield biased item/person parameter estimation. We propose a mixture hierarchical model to account for differences among item responses and response time patterns arising from these two behaviours. The model is also able to identify the specific behaviour an examinee engages in when answering an item. A Monte Carlo expectation maximization algorithm is proposed for model calibration. A simulation study shows that the new model yields more accurate item and person parameter estimates than a non‐mixture model when the data indeed come from two types of behaviour. The model also fits real, high‐stakes test data better than a non‐mixture model, and therefore the new model can better identify the underlying test‐taking behaviour an examinee engages in on a certain item.  相似文献   

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Many educational and psychological assessments focus on multidimensional latent traits that often have a hierarchical structure to provide both overall-level information and fine-grained diagnostic information. A test will usually have either separate time limits for each subtest or an overall time limit for administrative convenience and test fairness. In order to complete the items within the allocated time, examinees frequently adopt different test-taking behaviours during the test, such as solution behaviour and rapid guessing behaviour. In this paper we propose a new mixture model for responses and response times with a hierarchical ability structure, which incorporates auxiliary information from other subtests and the correlation structure of the abilities to detect rapid guessing behaviour. A Markov chain Monte Carlo method is proposed for model estimation. Simulation studies reveal that all model parameters could be recovered well, and the parameter estimates had smaller absolute bias and mean squared error than the mixture unidimensional item response theory (UIRT) model. Moreover, the true positive rate of detecting rapid guessing behaviour is also higher than when using the mixture UIRT model separately for each subscale, whereas the false detection rate is much lower than the mixture UIRT model. The deviance information criterion and the logarithm of the pseudo-marginal likelihood are employed to evaluate the model fit. Finally, a real data analysis is presented to demonstrate the practical value of the proposed model.  相似文献   

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Problem-solving strategies, defined as actions people select intentionally to achieve desired objectives, are distinguished from skills that are implemented unintentionally. In education, strategy-oriented instructions that guide students to form problem-solving strategies are found to be more effective for low-achieving students than the skill-oriented instructions designed for enhancing their skill implementation ability. Although the existing longitudinal cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) can model the change in students' dynamic skill mastery status over time, they are not designed to model the shift in students' problem-solving strategies. This study proposes a longitudinal CDM that considers both between-person multiple strategies and within-person strategy shift. The model, separating the strategy choice process from the skill implementation process, is intended to provide diagnostic information on strategy choice as well as skill mastery status. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the parameter recovery of the proposed model and investigate the consequences of ignoring the presence of multiple strategies or strategy shift. Further, an empirical data analysis is conducted to illustrate the use of the proposed model to measure strategy shift, growth in skill implementation ability and skill mastery status.  相似文献   

8.
因子混合模型(FMM)是考虑了群体潜在异质性后的因子分析模型,它将潜在类别分析(LCA)与传统的因子分析(FA)整合在同一框架内,既保留了两种分析技术的优点,同时又展现出独特优势。FMM的应用主要包括描述变量的潜在结构、对被试进行分组以及探测社会称许偏差等。我们建议分别采用FA、LCA与FMM三种模型拟合数据,参考拟合指数和模型可解释性选择最优模型。总结了FMM的分析步骤以及软件使用,并用于探讨大学生社会面子意识的测量模型。未来研究应关注FMM分析过程的简化,继续深化对拟合指数等方面的探讨。  相似文献   

9.
Rudas, Clogg, and Lindsay (1994, J. R Stat Soc. Ser. B, 56, 623) introduced the so-called mixture index of fit, also known as pi-star (π*), for quantifying the goodness of fit of a model. It is the lowest proportion of ‘contamination’ which, if removed from the population or from the sample, makes the fit of the model perfect. The mixture index of fit has been widely used in psychometric studies. We show that the asymptotic confidence limits proposed by Rudas et al. (1994, J. R Stat Soc. Ser. B, 56, 623) as well as the jackknife confidence interval by Dayton ( 2003 , Br. J. Math. Stat. Psychol., 56, 1) perform poorly, and propose a new bias-corrected point estimate, a bootstrap test and confidence limits for pi-star. The proposed confidence limits have coverage probability much closer to the nominal level than the other methods do. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method in practice by presenting some practical applications to log-linear models for contingency tables.  相似文献   

10.
    
The development in the interface of smart devices has lead to voice interactive systems. An additional step in this direction is to enable the devices to recognize the speaker. But this is a challenging task because the interaction involves short duration speech utterances. The traditional Gaussian mixture models (GMM) based systems have achieved satisfactory results for speaker recognition only when the speech lengths are sufficiently long. The current state-of-the-art method utilizes i-vector based approach using a GMM based universal background model (GMM-UBM). It prepares an i-vector speaker model from a speaker’s enrollment data and uses it to recognize any new test speech. In this work, we propose a multi-model i-vector system for short speech lengths. We use an open database THUYG-20 for the analysis and development of short speech speaker verification and identification system. By using an optimum set of mel-frequency cepstrum coefficients (MFCC) based features we are able to achieve an equal error rate (EER) of 3.21% as compared to the previous benchmark score of EER 4.01% on the THUYG-20 database. Experiments are conducted for speech lengths as short as 0.25 s and the results are presented. The proposed method shows improvement as compared to the current i-vector based approach for shorter speech lengths. We are able to achieve improvement of around 28% even for 0.25 s speech samples. We also prepared and tested the proposed approach on our own database with 2500 speech recordings in English language consisting of actual short speech commands used in any voice interactive system.  相似文献   

11.

Objective

Negative affect has been purported to play an important role in the etiology and maintenance of bulimic behaviors. The objective of this study was to identify daily mood patterns in the natural environment exhibited by individuals with bulimia nervosa and to examine the relationship between these patterns and bulimic behaviors.

Method

One hundred thirty-three women aged 18-55 meeting DSM-IV criteria for bulimia nervosa were recruited through clinical referrals and community advertisements. Ecological momentary assessment was used to collect multiple ratings of negative affect, binge eating and purging each day for a two-week period using palmtop computers. Latent growth mixture modeling was used to identify daily mood patterns.

Results

Nine distinct daily mood patterns were identified. The highest rates of binge eating and purging episodes occurred on days characterized by stable high negative affect or increasing negative affect over the course of the day.

Conclusions

These findings support the conclusion that negative mood states are intimately tied to bulimic behaviors and may in fact precipitate such behavior.  相似文献   

12.
    
Latent growth mixture modeling was used to identify discrete patterns of physical aggression from Grades 7 to 11 among a sample of 1,877 youth. Four trajectory classes adequately explained the development of physical aggression in both boys and girls: Low/No Aggression; Persistent High Aggression; Desisting Aggression, characterized by decreasing risk throughout adolescence; and Adolescent Aggression, characterized by low early risk that increases until Grade 9, levels out, and then declines in late adolescence. Girls were less likely than boys were to be in any trajectory besides the Low/No Aggression trajectory. Parental supervision, deviant peer association, academic orientation, impulsivity, and emotional distress at Grade 7 were all strongly associated with trajectory class membership. These associations did not differ by gender. These findings strongly suggest that the processes involved in the development of physical aggression in adolescence operate similarly in boys and girls.  相似文献   

13.
Van den Wollenberg stated a theorem specifying the conditions for a test, which is composed of two Rasch homogeneous subscales, as also behaving Rasch homogeneously. In our note, simple numerical counterexamples are given for which this theorem fails.While preparing the final version of this note, Ilse Rop passed away. The first author therefore takes sole responsibility for this final version.  相似文献   

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A weighted Euclidean distance model for analyzing three-way proximity data is proposed that incorporates a latent class approach. In this latent class weighted Euclidean model, the contribution to the distance function between two stimuli is per dimension weighted identically by all subjects in the same latent class. This model removes the rotational invariance of the classical multidimensional scaling model retaining psychologically meaningful dimensions, and drastically reduces the number of parameters in the traditional INDSCAL model. The probability density function for the data of a subject is posited to be a finite mixture of spherical multivariate normal densities. The maximum likelihood function is optimized by means of an EM algorithm; a modified Fisher scoring method is used to update the parameters in the M-step. A model selection strategy is proposed and illustrated on both real and artificial data.The second author is supported as Bevoegdverklaard Navorser of the Belgian Nationaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek.  相似文献   

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Abstract— It is critical to the progress of developmental science that researchers make proper use of statistical models for analyzing individual change over time. Latent curve models, hierarchical linear growth models, group-based trajectory models, and growth mixture models are increasingly important tools for longitudinal data analysis. To facilitate their understanding and use, this article clarifies similarities and differences between these models, paying particular attention to the assumptions they make about individual development. An example shows how the results and interpretation vary across model types. The discussion centers on reviewing the strengths and limitations of each approach for developmental research.  相似文献   

16.
    
The four-parameter logistic model (4PLM) has recently attracted much interest in various applications. Motivated by recent studies that re-express the four-parameter model as a mixture model with two levels of latent variables, this paper develops a new expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm for marginalized maximum a posteriori estimation of the 4PLM parameters. The mixture modelling framework of the 4PLM not only makes the proposed EM algorithm easier to implement in practice, but also provides a natural connection with popular cognitive diagnosis models. Simulation studies were conducted to show the good performance of the proposed estimation method and to investigate the impact of the additional upper asymptote parameter on the estimation of other parameters. Moreover, a real data set was analysed using the 4PLM to show its improved performance over the three-parameter logistic model.  相似文献   

17.
Covenant marriage is a legally distinct marriage license available in Arizona, Louisiana, and Arkansas in the United States. This study revisited one of the largest longitudinal dyadic studies on covenant versus standard newlywed couples. Using this dataset of 677 different-sex couples, we explored whether being in a covenant marriage could predict how marital satisfaction developed over the first five marital years. We applied the Growth Mixture Modeling (GMM) method to identify groups that differed in their initial marital satisfaction and trajectory. The results revealed three different trajectory groups—one group showing high and stable marital satisfaction, which we named High Stable, and two groups showing declines in marital satisfaction, one being medium and the other one being low in satisfaction at the beginning of the marriage, and we named them Medium Declining and Low Declining respectively. Spouses with lower initial marital satisfaction experienced a faster decline and suffered the highest divorce rate. Actor-Partner Interdependence Model (APIM) analysis revealed that one's group membership was predicted by their partner's membership, suggesting a mutual influence on marital development. Being in a covenant marriage was able to predict husbands' membership as covenant husbands were found to be more likely in the high stable group.  相似文献   

18.
Bayesian IRT Guessing Models for Partial Guessing Behaviors   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
According to the recent Nation’s Report Card, 12th-graders failed to produce gains on the 2005 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) despite earning better grades on average. One possible explanation is that 12th-graders were not motivated taking the NAEP, which is a low-stakes test. We develop three Bayesian IRT mixture models to describe the results from a group of examinees including both nonguessers and partial guessers. The first assumes that the guesser answers questions based on his or her knowledge up to a certain test item, and guesses thereafter. The second model assumes that the guesser answers relatively easy questions based on his or her knowledge and guesses randomly on the remaining items. The third is constructed to describe more general low-motivation behavior. It assumes that the guesser gives less and less effort as he or she proceeds through the test. The models can provide not only consistent estimates of IRT parameters but also estimates of each examinee’s nonguesser/guesser status and degree of guessing behavior. We show results of a simulation study comparing the performance of the three guessing models to the 2PL-IRT model. Finally, an analysis of real data from a low-stakes test administered to university students is presented.  相似文献   

19.
Bayesian inference for graphical factor analysis models   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We generalize factor analysis models by allowing the concentration matrix of the residuals to have nonzero off-diagonal elements. The resulting model is named graphical factor analysis model. Allowing a structure of associations gives information about the correlation left unexplained by the unobserved variables, which can be used both in the confirmatory and exploratory context. We first present a sufficient condition for global identifiability of this class of models with a generic number of factors, thereby extending the results in Stanghellini (1997) and Vicard (2000). We then consider the issue of model comparison and show that fast local computations are possible for this purpose, if the conditional independence graphs on the residuals are restricted to be decomposable and a Bayesian approach is adopted. To achieve this aim, we propose a new reversible jump MCMC method to approximate the posterior probabilities of the considered models. We then study the evolution of political democracy in 75 developing countries based on eight measures of democracy in two different years. We acknowledge support from M.U.R.S.T. of Italy and from the European Science Foundation H.S.S.S. Network. We are grateful to the referees and the Editor for many useful suggestions and comments which led to a substantial improvement of the paper. We also thank Nanny Wermuth for stimulating discussions and Kenneth A. Bollen for kindly providing us with the data-set.  相似文献   

20.
    
Recent advances in statistical techniques for longitudinal data analysis have provided increased capabilities for elucidating individual differences in trajectories of change in child behaviours and abilities. However, most techniques still assume that there is a single underlying distribution with respect to changes over time, about which children are normally distributed. If there are multiple subgroups of youth following distinct developmental trajectories with unique predictors, however, the results of these statistical techniques may provide an incomplete analysis of the data. A newer class of statistical techniques, latent growth mixture modelling, provides a robust framework for examining heterogeneity in patterns of development. This paper illustrates the use of latent growth mixture modelling for examining heterogeneity in developmental trajectories of adolescent antisocial behaviour. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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